Tag: Futures Trading

1) Analysis links, see EMA Track 1, section 4 for contact specifications, mini and micro contracts traded

Indices		Daily	60 M	120 M	180 M	Weekly	Monthly	Opinion
ES SP 500		ES	60	120	180	ES	ES	O
NQ Nasdaq 100		NQ	60	120	180	NQ	NQ	O
YM Dow Jones		YM	60	120	180	YM	YM	O
QR Russell 2000		QR	60	120	180	QR	QR	O
FX Euro Stoxx 50		FX	60	120	180	FX	FX	O
JH E-Stoxx Micro		JH	60	120	180	JH	JH	O
TM DAX		TM	60	120	180	TM	TM	O
SZ Swiss  Index		SZ	60	120	180	SZ	SZ	O
MX CAC 40		MX	60	120	180	MX	MX	O
AE AEX		AE	60	120	180	AE	AE	O
NY Nikkei		NY	60	120	180	NY	NY	O
HS Hang Seng		HS	60	120	180	HS	HS	O
Metals		Daily	60 M	120 M	180 M	Weekly	Monthly	Opinion
GC Gold 100		GC	60	120	180	GC	GC	O
SI Silver 5000		SI	60	120	180	SI	SI	O
HG Copper		HG	60	120	180	HG	HG	O
PL Platinum		PL	60	120	180	PL	PL	O
Currencies		Daily	60 M	120 M	180 M	Weekly	Monthly	Opinion
A6 100,000 AUD		A6	60	120	180	A6	A6	O
D6 100,000 CAD		D6	60	120	180	D6	D6	O
S6 125,000 CHF		S6	60	120	180	S6	S6	O
E6 125,000 EUR		E6	60	120	180	E6	E6	O
B6 62,500 GBP		B6	60	120	180	B6	B6	O
J6 12.5 M JPY		J6	60	120	180	J6	J6	O
DX 100,000 USD		DX	60	120	180	DX	DX	O
BT 5 Bitcoin		BT	60	120	180	BT	BT	O
ER Ether		ER	60	120	180	ER	ER	O
Energy		Daily	60 M	120 M	180 M	Weekly	Monthly	Opinion
CL Crude 1000 B		CL	60	120	180	CL	CL	O
HO Heating Oil		HO	60	120	180	HO	HO	O
RB Gasoline		RB	60	120	180	RB	RB	O
NG Nat Gas		NG	60	120	180	NG	NG	O
Rates		Daily	60 M	120 M	180 M	Weekly	Monthly	Opinion
GE 3-Month		GE	60	120	180	GE	GE	O
ZT 2-Year T-Note		ZT	60	120	180	ZT	ZT	O
ZF 5-Year T-Note		ZF	60	120	180	ZF	ZF	O
ZN 10-Year		ZN	60	120	180	ZN	ZN	O
ZB 30-Year		ZB	60	120	180	ZB	ZB	O
Agricultural		Daily	60 M	120 M	180 M	Weekly	Monthly	Opinion
ZC Corn		ZC	60	120	180	ZC	ZC	O
ZW Wheat		ZW	60	120	180	ZW	ZW	O
ZS Soybeans		ZS	60	120	180	ZS	ZS	O
RS Canola		RS	60	120	180	RS	RS	O
CT Cotton		CT	60	120	180	CT	CT	O
KC Coffee		KC	60	120	180	KC	KC	O
CC Coco		CC	60	120	180	CC	CC	O
OJ Orange Juice		OJ	60	120	180	OJ	OJ	O
LS Lumber		LS	60	120	180	LS	LS	O
Risk Disclosure

2) Simplified EMA trend qualification procedure,
EMA9 red above EMA18 blue = Long
EMA9 red below EMA18 blue = Short

3) Any ATA strategy can be traded automatically for you account using full size, mini or micro contracts in any of the 42 markets above with overall account risk defined before the first trade goes on.

About Automated Tradiing Accounts (ATAs)
2 minutes 21 seconds

4) Defining overall account risk
4 minutes 59 seconds.

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Disclosure

First choice for the account would be Tradeview.

Tradeview opening instructions

Tradeview’s global desk enables you to trade on these exchanges. Tradeview is headed by Tim Furey , (X CBOT floor trader) and Mike Lombardo (ran a prop desk for 20 years in New York) they’ve provided us with excellent service, order execution and have a knowledgeable, polite back office.

Dorman would be a close second choice

Dorman opening instructions

Dorman does an excellent job and has a great back office, but trading activity is limited to futures and futures options, founded by Bernard Dorman in 1956, currently run by Daniel Dorman they’re an old school firm, deep roots, deep pockets equipped with the latest tools and platforms for professional futures traders.

1) Micro-D2 Jan-2000 Jul-2022 Performance Data Spreadsheet

CME micro contracts are 1/10 the size of a standard futures contract. The smaller contact size enables a $25,000 account the same diversification that previously required $250,000.

The Micro Diversified trades

Contract Specifications & Margin Requirement	EMA 9-18 Chart	Tick Size	Current Margin Requirement
SP 500 Micro	ET	0.25 = $1.25	$1,210
NASDAQ 100 Micro	NM	0.25 = $0.50	$1,760
Gold 10 Ounces	GR	0.10 = $1.00	$990
10,000 Australian Dollars	MG	0.0001 = $1.00	$200
10,000 Canadian Dollars	NK	0.0001 = $1.00	$148
12,500 Swiss Franc	WN	0.0001 = $1.25	$363
12,500 Euro Dollars	MF	0.0001 = $1.25	$242
100,00 Dollar Index	DX	0.005 = $5.00	$2,000
1,250,000 Yen	WM	0.0001 = $1.25	$363
0.10 Bitcoin	BA	5 points = $0.50	$1,752
CY Crude 100 Barrel	CY	$1.00 = $100.00	$575

2) 2000-2022 net performance, no compounding, withdrawing all profits annually.

Disclosure

3) Using this spreadsheet you can create any allocation of the EMA 9-18 markets and immediately review 2000-2022 performance.

• • Enter your start balance in cell H21,
  • Enter number of contacts traded for the daily EMA 9-18 in cells I-21 through I-47
  • Enter number of contacts traded for hourly EMA 9-18 in cells I-21 through I-47
  • 2000-2021 monthly and annual performance shows in cells F-55 through F-390
  • Net profit per unit H-22
  • Maximum month-on month drawdown H-23
  • Reward risk ration (profit divided by drawdown) .H-24

4) Any allocation can be traded automatically for your account.

• • Contact us with your questions
  • Schedule an online review

5) Using any reasonable maintenance balance

• • AIM Advisory & Risk Control Agreement
  • Risk Control Agreement

About Automated Trading Accounts (ATAs)

The ATA Fee Structure

Defining Overall Risk for Your ATA

Brokerage Firms

How Funds Are Protected

Open An Account

Futures General Information

Options General Information

Market Analysis Pages

Educational Resources

 

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Disclosure

 

 

Most cost-effective way to transfer AUD

TransferMate 

TransferMate sign up, it’s free and fast

Traditional AUD wire transfer instructions

Account name WTSG Tradeview Ltd.
Account number 072-036473-2
Bank Name DBS
Bank Address
12 Marina Boulevard, DBS Asia Central
Marina Bay Financial Tower 3
Singapore 018982
Beneficiary Address
#12-01 Capital Tower.
168 Robinson Road
Singapore, 068912
Further credit Tradeview account name and number

Note DBS may charge up to 1.00% which far higher than normal

If you have any questions, please contact me.

Peter Knight
Voice & Video Chats.
Message me

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1) 25 October email also published on Barchart and Seeking Alpha.

Entry and exit strategy

4 October 2022 Short 250 GEM22 contacts at 99.80 representing a rate of 0.20% position value $125,000

Price 5 April GEM22 98.385, rate of 1.45% position value $1,009,375.00 open trade equity $884,375.00.

Maintaining this position until red EMA9 moves above the blue EMA18 on this chart

2) Fundamentals

14 February 2022, 3-month deposit rates had nearly the worst negative rate of return in history paying 7.09% less than reported inflation, more than 9.00% less than actual. 

Sources & Data

Sources & Data

14 February 2022 the world’s most liquid interest rate derivatives market was pricing in the following 3-month deposit rates through December 2031.

Sources & Data

The market is telling us there will be 7 rate hikes between now and December 2024 from 0.41%, to 2.21%, that this 1.81% increase will magically take a reported inflation from 7.90% down to 2.00% and rates will hold steady through December 2031. Not happening unless the Federal Reserve is they only one buying Treasuries. For more on the fundamentals that will fuel rates higher see this link.

How this trade works

If price action is above the EMA9 and the EMA9 is above the EMA18 we’re long.
Risk on long positions, if the EMA9 moves below EMA18 we’ll exit the trade.
If price action is below the EMA9 and the EMA9 is below the EMA18 we’re short.
Risk on short positions, if the EMA9 moves above the EMA18 we’ll exit the trade.
EMA chart to track this trade,  each 0.01 = $25.00 per contract
Chart prices are updated every 15 minutes

Contact me if you’d like to review more advanced strategies
Today’s Technical Opinion
Futures Quotes
Options Quotes

3) About the contract we’re trading

3-month rate futures (Eurodollars) represent the interest on $1,000,000 for 3 months, each 0.01% change in rate equals a $25.00 change in contract value, a 1.00% move $2,500 per contact.

• • 3-month rates are traded at the world’s largest dollar volume exchange the CME
  • The 3-Month rate contracts is extremely liquid
  • Total number of contracts outstanding 12,865,411
  • Total face value of contracts outstanding 12.865 trillion USD
  • Delivery dates traded this month through December 2031
  • Positions can be established or liquidated 23 hours a day.
  • Video introduction to 3-month rate futures (ICE Libor/Eurodollars)
  • Rate educational videos and resources

How it works

As rates rise the contact price falls to reflect the increase in rate. To convert contact price into the rate it represents take 100.0000 – the contact price = the rate.

Sources & Data

To calculate contract’s value take the rate and multiply it by $2,500.00 USD.

Sources & Data

Educational

On 10 February 2022 the world’s most liquid interest rate derivatives market was pricing in the following 3 month deposit rates through December 2031. What this market is telling us is that there will be 8, 0.25% rate hikes between now and December 2023,

Sources & Data

Its delusional to think a 2.35%, 3 month deposit rate would reduce inflation from 7.50% to less than 2.50%, 2.35% given current fundamentals won’t even contain inflation.

Over the last 24 months the Federal Government has cranked up nearly 7 trillion in new Federal debt. At the same time the Federal Reserve created nearly 5 trillion with keypunch entries for bailouts.

In March of 2020 the Federal Reserve dropped the Federal bank reserve requirement from 10.00% to 0.00% allowing banks to create borrow and lend money without reserves, this resulted in a spike in money supply (M1) from 4.6 trillion to over 20 trillion.

One position I believe has superior potential is trading the expected increase in rates between December 2023 and December 2027 from the current – 0.095% to +1.555%, if this occurs the anticipated 3 month deposit rate by December 2027 would be at 3.50% or 4.00% less than February’s reported inflation of 7.50%.

$25,000 allocation
Long 20 contracts GEZ23 at 97.640
Short 20 contracts GEZ27 at 97.765
Price –0.1250%
Chart to monitor this position with 15 minute updates, each 0.01 =$500.00

GEZ23 GEZ27 220210 to experiment with any investment amount, number of contracts traded and potential outcomes for this trade.

• • Enter number of contracts traded cell C-2
  • Investment amount C-3
  • Spread entry in percent cell E-2
  • Current price to monitor this position using this chart E-3 or experiment with any potential outcome for this trade in cell E-3
  • Profit or loss shows in Cell D-9
  • At the historic high 1.6950% on 19 March 2021, $25,000 would appreciate to $115,220
  • At the historic low of 0.125%, put in on 10 February $25,000 would be worth $25,000
  • From 0.125% to lose the $25,000 market anticipation for rate cuts would have to move from the current -0.125% to a rate cut of 0.625% between December 2023 and December 2027.

Fundamentals that will fuel the move higher in rates

Ask yourself how you can contain inflation when the Federal Reserve has created a total 8.756 trillion with keypunch entries, 7.865 trillion since 2008, 4.698 trillion in the last 24 months. 4.698 trillion in 24 months? that’s more than the total fiscal cost of World War 2 and 5 times more than FDR’s New Deal that built America’s infrastructure in the 1930’s.

Sources & Data

26 March 2020 the Federal Reserve reduced the 10% bank reserve requirement to zero resulting in money supply (M1) surging from 4.776 to 20.244 trillion.

The elimination of the 10% reserve requirement now allows banks to create nearly any amount of money, borrow, lend, and speculate with it, without reserves? This ensures the next banking crisis, more QE, continued high inflation and further long-term dollar devaluation against tangible assets and quality stocks.

Sources & Data

This video explains how U.S. banks borrow near 0.00%, leverage it, speculate with it, receive the profits, while the U.S. taxpayer assumes the risk.

Since 2008 more “stimulus” money found its way to Wall Street than Main Street.

Sources & Data

This increase in money created by the Fed and banks makes it impossible for the United States to contain inflation, now that reported inflation is above 7%, true inflation north of 9% the Fed wants to taper and to try to contain it?, way too little, way too late.

Treasuries as an investment 1970-2019 versus Dec 2021

1970-2007

• • Average Treasury rate 8.70%
  • Average reported inflation 4.70%
  • Average positive rate of return 4.00%

2008-2019

• • Average Treasury rate 2.72%
  • Average reported inflation 1.77%
  • Average positive rate of return 0.96%

December 2021

• • Average Treasury rate 2.01%
  • Reported inflation 7.12%
  • Current negative rate of return 5.11%

Sources& Data

From January 2008 through February 2020 monthly Fed bailouts using created money averaged 22.383 billion, since March 2020 they’ve averaged 210.54 billion.

Sources & Data

Tapering and normalization of rates is no longer an option for the U.S. with total annual federal revenue now a mere 13.85% of total federal debt.

1970 50.62%
1980 58.89%
1990 32.19%
2000 35.98%
2007 28.69%
2021 13.85%

Sources & Data

Sources & Data

We’re already seeing the impact from one round of tapering and rumored rate hikes on the equity market, sharp sell offs that have been contained by massive intervention funded by trillions of dollars created by Western banks (increase in money supply M1 and money created by the Fed QE).

Current Chart

Additional intervention money was raised from heavy sales of gold which explains why gold has been such a flat liner despite reported inflation above 7.00% and true inflation north of 9.00%. but Gold will have its day in the sun, until then we can trade hedged option write programs.

Sources & Data

Massive intervention in the U.S. equity market is failing, institutions are aware of this, evident by the massive increase in options volume as these institutions hedge their long positions.

Once hedging is completed I believe institutional liquidation of long positions will fully engage, most likely timed with the end of QE so the Fed will take the blame for the hard market selloff. Those that are allowed to will create net new short positions, fueling the market even lower, increasing the value of the new short positions and the puts they already own.

Daily on the NASDAQ rolled to short on the technical indicators 4 January 2022, overall market opinion at the time of this report was also a sell.

24th of January the weekly rolled from long to short

When the  the monthly rolls to short the next bear market has officially engaged.

The sell-off in stocks will give the Federal Reserve the justification they need to continue creating trillions with keypunch entries to buy Federal and mortgage debt at noncompetitive rates. What the Federal Reserve is doing isn’t new, it’s called monetization and it’s been around since money was created.

Sources & Data

When the QE printing press shifts into overdrive rate hike expectations will move from before December 2023 to after 2023 which will buy the Federal Government and Federal Reserve more time to try and figure out how they can contain the mess that they and politicians have created.

Chaos equals opportunity, it’s going to be a great year for trading packed with major market moves in indices, metals, energy, currencies and crypto long and short, message me if you’d like to track our trades in other markets as they occur.

 

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1) Open this page, click on sign up, there is no cost and it never expires

2) Click on get free

3) Enter your name, email, pick a password, (no additional information is required).

4) login to your Barchart account, under “my account” click on portfolio

5) Click on new portfolio

6) Name the portfolio

7) Click on create

8) Add any markets you’d like to track

Any top performing American Stock over the last 5 days to last 10 years

Any American Futures market

• • Commodities Prices
  • Currencies
  • Energies
  • Financials
  • Grains
  • Indices
  • Livestock
  • Metals
  • Softs
  • Mini & Micro Futures

Any European or Asian Futures market

• • Commodities Prices
  • Energies
  • Financials
  • Grains
  • Indices
  • Metals
  • Softs

Any currency market

9) Enter the contract code

10) Enter date, price, quantity of contracts traded,

11) Once built out your allocation’s performance is updated every 15 minutes.

1) Today’s total profit or loss
2) Total open trade equity
3) Total profit or loss
4) Current contract price
5) Today’s P&L per market
6) Total P&L per market

12) To offset any positions click on edit

13) Enter the offset price, then apply

14) What you’ll see

1)_Shows net trade profit or loss
2) Shows the position has been liquidated
3) The offset position’s profit or loss is added to closed P&L.

15) To organize the portfolio click on edit

16) Clicking on the arrow or dragging the trade moves the position

17) When finished hit save

 

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Disclosure