S&P Price Action & Rates 2007 Versus 2019

1) S&P 500 price action 2007 & 2019

1.1) S&P October 2002 through November 2007

Chart

1.2) S&P March 2014 through March 2019.

Chart

2) The Yield Curve 2006-2007 versus 2018-2019

2.1) 2006 through 2007 the yield curve fully inverts with 3 month rates remaining above all longer dated maturities until the sell off 2007 through 2009

Chart

2.2) 2018 & 2019 the curve is inverting once again, 3 month rates are now higher than 5 and 10 year and on their way to surpass 30 year.

Chart

3) Where 13+ trillion in interest rates derivatives positions priced forward rates 2006-2007 versus 2018-2019

3.1) May 2006 to November 2007 forward rate expectations drop from pricing in a 0.25% rate hike to a 0.5350% rate cut.

Chart

3.2) October 2018 to March 2019, forward rate expectations drop from pricing in a 0.2500% rate hike to a 0.2800% rate cut.

ChartThis program captured this move.

4) 2007, the last time we had this scenario in rates the bear market of 2007 fully engaged within 4 months, the S&P 500 fell 57.68% from 1,576.09 in October 2007 to 666.79 by March 2009.

Chart October 2002 through May 2009

5) The S&P 500 didn’t see a new high for 5 years and 6 months

Chart October 2007- April 2013

6) Rates calling a major trend changes is nothing new. 

1998-2019 Yield Curve Chart

7) S&P 500 price price action

1998-2019 S&P Chart

8) Major/Minor Bull & Bear markets 1983 through 2019

8.1)   1983-2019 chart
8.2)   January 1983 – August 1987 Bull 139.72 – 337.89 =+141.83%
8.3)   August 1987 – October 1987 Bear 337.89 – 216.47 = -35.93%
8.4)   August 1987 – August 1989 Bear to recovery (2 years)
8.5)   August 1987 – July 1990 Bull 216.47 – 369.78 = +70.82%
8.6)   July 1990 October 1990 Correction 369.78 – 294.51 = -20.36%
8.7)   July 1990 – February 1991 Correction to recovery (7 months)
8.8)   October 1990 – July 1998 Bull 294.51 – 1,190.58 =+304.26%
8.9)   July 1998 – October 1998 Correction 1,190.58 – 923.52 = -22.43%
8.10) July 1998 – November 1998 Correction to recovery (4 months)
8.11) October 1998 – March 2000 Bull 923.52 – 1,552.87 =+68.15%
8.12) March 2000 October 2002 Bear 1,52.87 – 768.63 = -50.50%
8.13) March 2000 December 2007 Bear to recovery (7 years 9 months)
8.14) October 2002 – October 2007 Bull 768.63 – 1,576.09 =+105.05%
8.15) October 2007 – March 2009 Bear 1,576.09 – 666.79 = –57.68%
8.16) October 2007- April 2013 Bear to recovery (5 years 6 months)
8.17) March 2009 – April 2019 Bull 666.79 – 2,907.41 = +336.03%

Analysis & Trading Programs to capture the moves on deck.

If you have questions send a message or contact me

Regards,
Peter Knight Advisor

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