Preparing for tomorrow’s major market moves today

Economic perception versus reality
Income, assets and GDP in ounces of gold
U.S. debt compared to other countries in 2021
What I see happening between now and the end of 2025
Tools, markets and contracts for capturing major market moves long or short

Perception

From 1970 to 2020 personal Income, stocks, home prices, precious metals, GDP, Federal revenue all outperformed reported inflation.

1970-2020 average annual reported inflation 4.03%
Average annual growth in personal income 5.51%
Average increase in median home prices 5.25%
Average increase in the S&P 500 8.63%
Average increase in Gold 9.81%
Average increase in Federal revenue per capita 4.99%
Average increase in Federal revenue per employed person 4.53%
Average annual growth in GDP per capita 5.14%
Average annual growth in the GDP per employed person 4.70%

1970 to 2021 personal income outperformed inflation by 100.72%

5.51% average annual growth in personal income
1.48% average annual growth above reported inflation
$29,714 what personal income would be in 2020 if pegged to inflation

$59,642 actual personal income in 2020
$29,928 overall growth in annual personal income above inflation


Sources & Data

2008-2019 Median home prices outperformed inflation by 74.88%

5.25% average annual appreciation
1.22% average appreciation above inflation
$192,671 what median home prices would be in 2020 if pegged to inflation
$336,950 actual median home price in 2020
$144,279 overall appreciation in median home prices above inflation


2008-2019 the S&P 500 outperformed inflation by 432.48%

8.63% average annual appreciation
4.83% average appreciation above inflation
705.40 what the S&P 500 would be in 2020 if pegged to inflation
3,756.10 actual price for the S&P in 2020
3,050.70 overall appreciation of the S&P 500 above inflation

Sources & Data

2008-2019 gold outperformed inflation by 462.54%

9.81% 1970-2020 average annual appreciation
5.78% average appreciation above inflation
$315 what the price of gold would be in 2020 if pegged to inflation
$1,772 actual price of gold in 2020
$1,457 overall appreciation of gold above inflation

Sources & Data

Federal revenue per capita outperformed inflation by 44.13%

4.99% average annual growth in Federal revenue per capita
0.96% average appreciation above inflation
$7,160 what Federal revenue would be per capita if pegged to inflation
$10,320 actual Federal revenue per capita in 2020
4.03% 1970-2021 average annual reported inflation

Federal revenue per employed person by 20.43%

4.53% average annual growth in Federal revenue per employed person
0.50% average appreciation above inflation
$20,093  what Federal revenue would be per employed person if pegged to inflation
$24,197 actual Federal revenue per employed person in 2020

GDP per capita outperformed inflation by 67.16%

5.14% average annual growth in GDP per capita
1.11%  average growth above inflation
$38,551 what GDP per capita would be if pegged to inflation
$64,443 actual GDP per capita in 2020

GDP per employed person by 49.33%

4.70% average annual growth in GDP per employed person
0.67%  average growth above inflation
$101,190 what GDP per employed person would be if pegged to inflation
$151,103 actual GDP per employed person in 2020

Sources & Data

In 2021 the U.S. has a higher percentage of the U.S population working and paying taxes than 36 out of the last 52 years.

44.23% of U.S. population is employed in 2021
2.25% from its 52 year high of 46.79% set in 2000
2.16% higher than the 52 year average 42.07%
9.88% higher than the 52 year low of 34.35% set in 1971

Sources & Data

With more Americans working than 36 out of the last 52 years, personal income, assets, economic growth and Federal income all outperforming  inflation, you’d expect quality of life for U.S. citizens to be at or near an all time high, that the Federal Government would be running budget surpluses, paying down debt, and working hard towards restoring their fiscal credibility and AAA debt rating.

Reality

From 1970 to 2021 Federal debt increased by 28.16 trillion
Federal debt as a percent of GDP from 35.49% to 137.20%
Federal debt per capita, from $1,879 to $86,025
Federal debt per employed person from $5,365 to $195,836
Federal Spending per employed person, from $2,929 to $53,210
9.1 trillion dollars in Federal Reserve bailouts, 8.2 trillion since 2008
2 debt downgrades caused by record spending and the creation of trillions to fund it.
Borrowing the all monies paid into Social Security by issuing it non marketable debt which helped expedite the insolvency date to as early as 2028 to the latest 2035
Borrowing all the monies paid into Military and Civilian Employee Trusts by issuing  these trusts non marketable debt jeopardizing beneficiary retirement income.
Mismanaging Medicare moving up it’s insolvency date to 2026

All in, Government piled up 153.473 trillion in unfunded liabilities

1970-2020 Federal spending per capita increased by 228.46% more than inflation.

6.88% average annual growth in Federal spending per capita
2.85% average growth above inflation
$23,406 actual Federal spending per capita in 2020

$7,242 what per capita Federal spending would be in 2020 if pegged to inflation

Federal spending per employed person by 158.58% more than inflation.

6.49% 1970-2020 average annual growth in Federal spending per employed person
2.46% average growth above inflation
$53,547 actual Federal spending per capita in 2020
$20,705 what per employed person Federal spending would be in 2020 if pegged to inflation


Sources & Data

Average annual Federal spending above reported inflation. 

Per Capita
1970-2007 1.77% 
2008-2019 1.87% 
2008-2020 6.40% 
1970-2020 2.95%

Per employed person
1970-2007 1.04% 
2008-2019 1.89%
2008-2020 7.25% 
1970-2020 2.62%


Sources & Data

In 2020-2021 Federal spending per employed person is equivalent to 87.09% of median personal income


Sources & Data

Increases in Federal Debt

Since 1970 28.168 trillion
Since 2008 19.599 trillion
Since 2020 5.880 trillion

Federal Debt  as a percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 1900-2021

1970 to 2021 Federal debt to GDP, 35.49% to 137.20%
2008 to 2021 Federal debt to GDP, 61.93% to 137.20%
1939 debt to GDP,  43.30% (end of the Great Depression)
1946 119.12% (end of World War 2)
High, 2021 137.20%

Average 48.95%
Low, 1907 7.19%


Sources & Data

Federal debt per capita

1970-2021 actual increase in Federal debt per capita, $1,879 to $86,025, +4,478.23%
1970-2021 if pegged to reported inflation, $1,879 to $13,206, +602.63%
2008-2021 actual per capita increase in Federal debt, $29,998 to $86,025, +186.77%

2008-2021 if pegged to reported inflation $10,036 to $13,206, +31.58%
2020-2021 actual per capita increase in Federal debt, from $69,392 to $86,025, +23.97%
2020-2021 if pegged to reported inflation $12,374 to $13,206, +6.72%

Federal debt per employed person

1970-2021 actual increase per employed person $5,365 to $195,836, +3,691.59%
1970-2021 if pegged to reported inflation $5,365 to $37,693, +602.63%

2008-2021 actual increase per employed person, $64,871 to $195,836,  +201.89%
2008-2021 if pegged to reported inflation, $28,645 to $37,693, +31.58%

2020-2021 actual increase per employed person. $150,228 to $195,836, +30.36%
2020-2021 if pegged to reported inflation. $35,420 to $37,693, +6.41%

U.S. debt compared to other countries

1970-2020, 28.168 trillion in new Federal debt, this is more than the total debt of the United Kingdom, Italy, France, Germany, Australia, Canada, Mexico, Russia, China, Taiwan and India combined, total population of these countries 3.468 billion, U.S. population 332 million.

Since 2008, 19.598 trillion in new Federal debt, this is more than the total debt of the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Switzerland, Greece, Turkey, Taiwan, China, Russia, India, Argentina, Mexico and Nigeria combined, total population of these countries 3.587 billion.

Fed Bailouts since 2008 8.261 trillion, this is more than the total debt of China, population 1.442 billion.

18 months, 5.88 trillion in new Federal debt, that’s 304 billion more than the combined total debt of the United Kingdom and Canada.


Sources & Data

The U.S. has required more Federal Reserve bailouts in the last 19 months than the previous 13 years and 7 months

2008-2019last 13 years 7 months
Total new debt Federal 13.719 trillion
Total money created by the Federal Reserve 3.275 trillion

Federal Reserve profits forfeited to the U.S. Treasury 892 billion
Total Federal Reserve bailouts, 4.167 trillion

2020-2021 – last 19 months
Total new federal debt 5.881 trillion
Total money created by the Federal Reserve 4.036 trillion

Federal Reserve profits forfeited to the U.S. Treasury 144 billion
Total Federal Reserve bailouts, 4.180 trillion


Sources & Data

From 1998 to 2020 the Federal Reserve forfeited 1.242 trillion in operating profits to the U.S. Treasury, that’s 142.49 billion more than total Federal debt in 1982.


Sources & Data

2 Federal debt downgrades caused by record Federal spending and the creation of trillions of dollars to pay for it. 

In 2021 the United States has the worst debt rating in history, 11 countries are now rated higher, the U.S. now shares the same debt rating as Hong Kong and Finland.

With continued overspending and the creation of money to fund it, U.S. debt is expected to be downgraded again.

Country/Region Rating Outlook Date
 Canada AAA Stable 2002-07-29
 Denmark AAA Stable 2001-02-27
 Germany AAA Stable 2012-01-13
 Liechtenstein AAA Stable 2016-02-26
 Luxembourg AAA Stable 2013-01-14
 Netherlands AAA Stable 2015-11-20
 Norway AAA Stable 1990-11-08
 Singapore AAA Stable 1995-03-06
 Sweden AAA Stable 2004-02-16
  Switzerland AAA Stable 1989-06-26
 Australia AAA Stable 2020-10-20
 Austria AA+ Stable 2013-01-29
 Finland AA+ Stable 2016-09-16
 Hong Kong AA+ Stable 2017-09-22
 United States AA+ Stable 2013-06-10

As Federal debt increased by 19.30 trillion the Federal Reserve created over 8 trillion dollars for bailouts and Federal debt was downgraded twice. 

Inflation magically disappeared until May of this year?

1970-2021 Average Treasury rates and real rate of returns

1970 to 2007 average Treasury rate 8.70% paying 3.99% more than reported inflation
2008 to 2020 average Treasury rate 2.67% paying 0.94% more than reported inflation
2021 average Treasury rate 2.01% paying 3.39% less than reported inflation
1970 through 2021 average annual inflation 4.03%
Reported inflation over the last 12 months 5.40%


Sources & Data

Ask yourself how can you possibly have these dismal fundamentals when personal income, stocks, home prices, precious metals, GDP and Federal revenue all outperformed reported inflation?

Reported inflation factual or fictional?

Let’s compare the cost of the New Deal in the 1930’s to what the Bureau of Labor and Statics  (BLS) tells us it would cost in 2021.

Total cost of the New Deal from 1933 to 1939, 41.70 billion in 1939 dollars,
BLS translates this into 809.27 billion in 2021 dollars .

1939 total cost of the New Deal in gold 1,211504,939 ounces
Cost of the New deal in 2021 if pegged to gold 2.179 trillion dollars

What the New Deal did for 809.27 billion BLS 2021 dollars

    • Job training for 8.5 million unskilled men to learn a new professions as they carried out public works infrastructure projects.
    • Built or modernized more than 55,000 civilian and military buildings.
    • Built 32 naval vessels, many played key roles during World War 2.
    • Built 4,026 new schools, the majority are still open today.
    • Built 130 new hospitals, including Fitzsimons , Allegheny General & Jersey City
    • 29,000 new bridges & tunnels including Lincoln,Throgs Neck and Golden Gate.
    • Scores of Dams including Hover & Shasta, the majority still produce power today
    • Built or modernized over 180,000 miles of highways including the Los Angeles Freeway, the Overseas Highway(107 miles) connecting Key West to the mainland
    • Built or modernized more than 150 airports including La Guardia and Midway.
    • Built or modernized nearly 9,000 miles of storm drains and sewer lines.

New Deal Programs provided more than Infrastructure.

    • The laborers of the New Deal programs worked in schools serving more than 900 million hot lunches to hungry children during the depression.
    • Operated 1,500 nurseries enabling childcare so parents could work.
    • Funded over 225,000 concerts and thousands of plays.
    • New Deal cultural programs produced more than half a million works of art including Jackson Pollock’s 17A which sold for 200 million in 2016.
    • The New Deal Writers’ program featured works from soon-to-be famous Authors like John Steinbeck, Steinbeck went on to win the Pulitzer Prize in 1940 for his novel The Grapes of Wrath.

Since 2008, 22.14 trillion (2021 dollars) in new Federal debt?

Where are the U.S’s new hydroelectric dams like Hoover and Shasta, the 4,026 new schools, 130 new hospitals,180,000 miles of new and repaired roads, new bridges, tunnels or high speed trains like the rest of the industrialized world?. Where’s the training programs and 8.5 million jobs, the detox programs and shelters for over half a million homeless?

Either President Roosevelt really knew how to stretch a buck in the 1930’s or BLS.GOV inflation is purely fictional.

What U.S. does have to show for this 22.14 trillion is divided country, burned/looted cities, record crime and homeless rates, lost wars, lost credibility, lost personal freedom, lost personal privacy, vacant retail space, a decaying infrastructure and a DNA sample on the majority of it’s citizens.

BLS.GOV calculations for the total fiscal cost of World War 2 

World War 2’s total U.S. fiscal cost was 291.18 billion in 1946 dollars.
The  BLS.GOV translates this into 4.347 trillion in 2021 dollars

4.347 trillion is 59.59% of what the Federal Government spent in 2020,
97.35% of what the Federal Government spent in 2019.

1946 U.S. fiscal cost of World War 2 in gold 131,662,345,145 ounces
Cost of the WW 2 if pegged to gold 15.088 trillion 2021 dollars

2008-2019 Federal spending compared the New Deal and WW2

Average annual Federal spending 3.974 trillion,
491.06% the total cost of New Deal (1933-1939)
91.42% the total fiscal cost of World War 2 (1941-1945)

Average annual new Federal debt 1.143 trillion,
141.23% the total cost of New Deal
26.29% the total fiscal cost of Word War 2

2008-2019 total spending during the last “crisis” and “recovery”

47.689 trillion in Federal Spending (all in)
5,892.84% the total cost of New Deal
1,097.06% the total fiscal cost of World War 2

13.718 trillion in New Federal Debt 2008-2019
1,695.11% the total cost of the New Deal
315.57% the total fiscal cost of World War 2


Data & Sources

Spending and new debt  2020-2021

11,312 trillion in Federal Spending (all in)
5.88 trillion in New Federal Debt
Data on pre Covid causes of death, Covid causes of death

Annual Federal Revenue is now a mere 11.16% to total Federal debt, anything below 12.50% is considered beyond repair

1970 50.62%
1980 58.89%
1990 32.19%
2000 35.98%
2007 28.69%
2021 11.16%

Sources & Data

An 11.16% annual revenue to debt ratio makes it impossible for the U.S. to accurately report inflation, normalize interest rates or any increases in any Federal expense that’s pegged to reported inflation such as Social Security, Medicare, Military or Civilian employee pensions. 

Example, if Treasury rates normalized to the 1970 – 2008 average of 8.70%, 68% of all Federal Revenue would be consumed by debt service cost alone.

Accurate increases in Medicare would push it’s insolvency up from the projected 2026, Social Security before the projected 2028 to 2035.

Under reporting inflation contains Federal costs

Example, from 2008 to 2021 Federal debt increased by 200.00% yet annual debt service cost increased by only 30.91%.

Total Federal debt in 2007 8.950 trillion, annual debt service cost 411.32 billion
Total Federal debt in 2020 26.880 trillion, annual debt service cost 538.45 billion


Sources & Data

Adding to deteriorating credibility is how the U.S. reports budget deficits, the poverty and the homeless rates.

1970-2020 reported deficits versus increases in total Federal debt

Cumulative reported budget deficits $17.857 trillion
Cumulative increase in Federal debt $26,515 trillion

According to U.S. politicians this 8.658 trillion dollar difference doesn’t count because they’re mandatory expenses and they don’t get to vote on them.


Sources & Data

Annual difference between reported deficits and increase in total Federal debt

1970 to 2007 4.021 trillion,
2008 to 2020 4.637 trillion.

U.S poverty rate

The Federal Government has contained the official poverty rate and all subsides linked to the poverty rate by lowering what the poverty rate is.

In 1970 if your income was less than 49.60% of median personal income you were below the poverty threshold and qualified for government assistance.
In 2020 your income needs to be less than 21.70% of median personal income to be below the poverty threshold and qualify for government assistance.


Sources & Data

Homeless rate

By redefining who’s homeless the Department of Housing and Urban development has reduced the official homeless rate by 173,691 people since 2005.

Sources & Data

In 2021 Federal Debt as a percentage of GDP is the worst in history


Sources and Data

Regulation, taxation and litigation have destroyed U.S. manufacturing and eliminated over 20 million jobs.


Sources & Data

The resulting trade deficits from 1970 to 2021 have eliminated 13.95 trillion in domestic wealth, 7.652 trillion since 2008.


Supporting Links & Data

Foreign held Treasury debt now impedes the U.S.’s ability to negotiate fair trade

If the 7.012 trillion in foreign held Treasury debt hits the market for any reason it will create an unprecedented financial crisis, unprecedented dollar sales by foreign investors and additional dollar devaluation fueled by the Federal Reserve’s creation of trillions of dollars trying to support the U.S. Treasury market and dollar, hyper inflation will engage.

Sources & Data

In 2020 and 2021 the Federal Reserve has been the largest buyer of new Treasury debt using money they created from and backed by nothing,

The creation of  over 8 trillion dollars makes it impossible for the dollar to maintain it’s long-term value against any quality stock or tangible asset, It also moves closer the sale of 7.012 trillion in foreign owned Treasury debt.

The Federal Reserve has purchased more Treasury debt in the last 19 months than the previous 50 years

2020-2021 last 19 months
Increase in Federal debt 5.881 trillion
Federal debt purchased by the Federal Reserve 2.764 trillion
Domestically purchased Federal debt 2.694 trillion
Debt purchased by foreign investors 311.5 billion
Non marketable debt  held by Federal agencies & Trusts 111.8 billion

1970-2019 previous 50 years
Increase in Federal debt 22.289 trillion
Federal debt purchased by the Federal Reserve 2.637 trillion
Domestically purchased Federal debt 7.301 trillion 
Debt purchased by foreign investors 6.716 trillion
Non marketable debt  held by Federal agencies & Trusts 6.01 trillion


Sources & Data

Percent ownership of total Federal Debt

2020
Domestic, publicly held Federal debt 35.01%

Federal debt held by foreign investors 24.62%
Non marketable Federal debt held by Federal Agencies & Trusts 21.46%
Federal debt held by the Federal Reserve 18.92%

1970
Domestic publicly held Federal debt 79.58%
Federal debt held by foreign investors 4.12%
Non marketable Federal debt held by Federal Agencies & Trusts 0.00%
Held by the Federal Reserve 16.30%


Sources & Data

The numbers in ounces of gold

1981-2020 reported personal income in gold

Personal income increased from 24.67 to 33.66 ounces, +8.99 ounces, +36.46%
Personal income in dollars increased from $11,326 to $59,642, +$48,316, +426.59%

2020 personal income 33.46 ounces
1981 24.67 ounces
1981-2021 annual average 55.33 ounces
High 2001 117.29 ounces
Low 1981 24.67 ounces


Sources & Data

1981-2020 median home price in gold

Median home prices increased from 183.32 to 185.67 ounces, +2.24 ounces, +1.28%
In US dollars from $68,950 to $336,950, +$268,000, +388.69%

2020 185.67 ounces
1981 183.32 ounces
1981-2021 average 312.01 ounces

High 2000 617.83 ounces
Low 2011 134.10 ounces


Sources & Data

1981-2020 value of an S&P 500 futures contract

An S&P contract increased from 14.78 to 121.47ounces, +106.69 ounces, +721.69%
In US dollars, from $6,788 to $220,450 +$213,662, +3,147.64%

2020 185.67 ounces

1981 183.32 ounces
1981-2021 average 312.01 ounces

High 2000 617.83 ounces
Low 2011 134.10 ounces

Sources & Data

1981-2020 GDP Per employed person in gold

GDP increased from 78.27 to 85.28 ounces, +5.23 ounces, +8.96%
GDP in dollars increased from $35,937.56 to $151.102.75, +$115,165.18, +320.45%

2020 85.28 ounces
1981 78.27 ounces
1981-2020 average 153.27 ounces
High 2001 297.62 ounces
Low 2012 73.07 ounces

Per capita

GDP increased from 31.14 to 36.37 ounces, +5.23 ounces, +16.80%
GDP in dollars increased from $14,297.62 to $64,443.08 +$50,145.46 +350.72%


2020 36.37 ounces
1981 31.14 ounces
1981-2020 average 67.64
High 2001 137.94 ounces
Low 2011 31.14 ounces

Sources & Data

Federal revenue in gold 1981-2020

Per employed person

Decreased from 14.74 to 13.66 ounces, -1.08 ounces, -7.34%  
In dollars increased from $6,766.66 to $24,196.85, +$17,429.94, +257.58

2020 13.66 ounces
1981 14.74 ounces
1981-2020 average 27.13 ounces
High 1999 56.20 ounces
Low 2011 11.81 ounces

Per capita

Decreased from 5.86 to 5.82 ounces, -0.04 ounces, -0.67%  
In dollars increased from $2,692.19 to $10,319.60, +7,627.14, +283.32%

2020 5.82 ounces
1981 5.86 ounces
1981-2020 average 11.98
High 1999 26.03 ounces
Low 2011 5.00 ounces


Sources & Data

Federal spending in gold 1981-2020

Per employed person

From 16.34 to 30.28 ounces, +13.93 ounces +85.26%
Federal spending in dollars, from $7,504 to $53,647, +46,143, +614.91%

2020 30.28 ounces
1981 16.34 ounces
1981-2020 average 32.86
High 2001 59.53 ounces
Low 1981 16.34 ounces

Per capita

Increased from 6.50 to 13.06 ounces, +6.56 ounces +100.86%
In dollars, from $2,985 to $23,140, +20,154, +675.08%

2020 13.06 ounces
1981 6.50 ounces
1981-2021 average 14.48
High 2001 27.59 ounces
Low 1981 6.50 ounces

Sources & Data

Federal debt in gold 1981-2020

Per employed person

Increased from 23.73 to 106.65 ounces, +82.92 ounces, +349.38%  
In dollars increased from $10,897 to $188,966, +178,069, +1,634.08%

2020 106.65 ounces
1981 23.73 ounces
1981-2020 average 97.51
High 2001 161.09 ounces
Low 1981 23.73 ounces

Per capita

Increased from 9.44 to 46.00 ounces, +36.56 ounces, +387.20% 
In dollars increased from $4,335 to $81,507, +77,172, +1,780.03%

2020 46.00 ounces

1981 9.44 ounces
1981-2020 average 43.17
High 2001 74.66 ounces
Low 1981 9.44 ounces


Sources & Data

What believe is on deck for the U.S. between 2021 through 2026

With Federal Revenue is now a mere 11.16% of total Federal debt, the Federal Government cannot afford to raise rates to attract enough buyers to keep it solvent. We expect this this ration to drop below 7.5% by the end of 2026.

2021-2026 projected increase in Federal Debt

From 28.57 to 38.67 trillion dollars
Debt to GDP from the projected 137.20% in 2021 to 142.56% by the end of 2026


Sources & Data

Because the Federal government can’t attract enough buyers at rates they can afford to pay the Federal Reserve will need to create more money from and backed by nothing to keep the U.S. solvent

Expectations for Debt owned and money created through 2026

Total money created by the Federal Reserve increasing from 8.24 to 13.53 trillion
Federal debt owned by the Federal Reserve increasing from 5.30 to 8.66 trillion
Other debt owned by the Federal Reserve from 2.898 to 4.689 trillion


Sources & Data

2021-2026 Inflation Expectations

Reported inflation averaging more than 3.75%
Actual inflation averaging more than 5.25%
(Shadow Stats puts the average above 7.50%)


Sources & Data

Interest rate expectations

The Federal Reserve is providing no specific conditions, levels or guidance

 

Today’s probability of a rate cut or hike at the next Fed meeting
Today’s Treasury Rates (Bloomberg)
Data Prime Rate, Fed Funds, 3 month, 2 year, 5 year, 10 year & 30 year
Treasury calculator
Reported Inflation
BLS.GOV Inflation Calculator

Interest Rate Futures Educational Page
Interest rate 3 month to 30 year curve
Fed Meetings and Press Conferences
Understanding the FOMC Report

Sales of foreign owned debt and dollars

Potential hikes in income, corporate and long-term capital gains tax rates depends on the 2022 elections.

Sales of U.S stocks to avoid increase in the capital gains tax with recovery fueled by dollar devaluation.

Insert stock table

Mortgage delinquency rates increasing from 2.75% to more than 5.00%

Federal Reserve ownership mortgage backed securities from 2.422 trillion to over 4 trillion

A temporary selloff in real estate caused by higher rates, higher taxes, higher inflation, decreasing affordability and decreasing discretionary income with recovery to new highs fueled by dollar devaluation.

For my trading accounts I”ll remain properly capitalized, maintain discipline and  trade with the trend long or short.

There is no excuse for not trading with trends, exponential moving averages (EMAs) is a very simple solution and a great place to start, it’s this simple, red line (9 day EMA) above blue line (18 day EMA) trade long, red below blue trade short.

Using nothing but the 9 day and 18 day EMA generated these results since 2000 on these futures contacts.

Drop in EMAs

You can experiment with any combination of the these EMAs using these instructions

Top EMA allocations are on this page

Creating you own allocation on this page

Instructions for tracking your own EMA allocation this page

Watch what the Fed chair is in, the Fed  coincidentally  always seems to support these markets, follow the chair’s disclosure on his OGE 278e forms.

2020 Powell Financial Disclosure (OGE Form 278e)

2021 Powell Financial Disclosure (OGE Form 278e)

It’s going to be a exciting year to trade packed with beautiful trends contact with any questions.

Peter Knight Advisor
Direct Phone Virgin Islands +340 244 4310
Skype: Peter-Knight-Advisor
Message me
Schedule an online review
Peter_Knight@peterknightadvisor.com

 


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Risk Disclosure

VBO 1319554

2000-2021 Performance & Data Spreadsheet

1) Performance Summary


2) Monthly/annual performance, no compounding, withdrawing all profits annually.


Disclosure

Schedule an online review I’ll walk you through what we’re trading and how enabling you to verify past performance and monitor trades forward.

3) VBO 1319554 2000-2021 Performance & Data Spreadsheet

A) Allocation performance
B) Individual method performance
C) Monthly profit or loss
D) Performance statistics

E) Margin requirements
F) Contract specifications
G) 2000 through 2021 monthly and annual performance.

H) Monthly and annual performance for every method traded.

4) Cells J24 – J45 link spreadsheets for each method traded

5) What these spreadsheets provide

A) Full disclosure of trading methodology.
B) Life of program performance summary.
C) 2000-2021 daily open, high, low, close data.
D) Every day’s buy, sell, stop, objective and all volatility calculations.
E) Every trade entry, offset, profit, loss, cumulative profit or loss.

6) To review the top 100,000 VBO allocations or to create your own see this page.

7) Any allocation can be traded automatically for your account, allocations can be modified at any time.

7) Using any reasonable maintenance balance

Account liquidity in portion portion or all, 2 to 48 hours, in any major currency

About Automated Trading Accounts (ATAs)
The ATA Fee Structure
Defining Overall Risk for Your ATA
Brokerage Firms
How Funds Are Protected
Open An Account
Futures General Information
Options General Information
Market Analysis Pages
Educational Resources

If you have questions contact me.

Peter Knight Advisor
Direct VI Phone 24/7 +340 244 4310
Skype: Peter-Knight-Advisor
Message me

Schedule an online review
Peter_Knight@peterknightadvisor.com


Privacy Notice

Disclosure

VBO 96117749

2000 2021 Performance Data Spreadsheet

1) Performance Summary


2) Monthly/annual performance, no compounding, withdrawing all profits annually.


Disclosure

Schedule an online review I’ll walk you through what we’re trading and how enabling you to verify past performance and monitor trades forward.

3) VBO 96117749 2000 2021 Performance Data Spreadsheet

A) Allocation performance
B) Individual method performance
C) Monthly profit or loss
D) Performance statistics

E) Margin requirements
F) Contract specifications
G) 2000 through 2021 monthly and annual performance.

H) Monthly and annual performance for every method traded.

4) Cells J24 – J45 link spreadsheets for each method traded

5) What these spreadsheets provide

A) Full disclosure of trading methodology.
B) Life of program performance summary.
C) 2000-2021 daily open, high, low, close data.
D) Every day’s buy, sell, stop, objective and all volatility calculations.
E) Every trade entry, offset, profit, loss, cumulative profit or loss.

6) To review the top 100,000 VBO allocations or to create your own see this page.

7) Any allocation can be traded automatically for your account, allocations can be modified at any time.

7) Using any reasonable maintenance balance

Account liquidity in portion portion or all, 2 to 48 hours, in any major currency

About Automated Trading Accounts (ATAs)
The ATA Fee Structure
Defining Overall Risk for Your ATA
Brokerage Firms
How Funds Are Protected
Open An Account
Futures General Information
Options General Information
Market Analysis Pages
Educational Resources

If you have questions contact me.

Peter Knight Advisor
Direct VI Phone 24/7 +340 244 4310
Skype: Peter-Knight-Advisor
Message me

Schedule an online review
Peter_Knight@peterknightadvisor.com


Privacy Notice

Disclosure

VBO 1872198

2000-2021 Performance & Data Spreadsheet

1) Performance Summary


2) Monthly/annual performance, no compounding, withdrawing all profits annually.


Disclosure

Schedule an online review I’ll walk you through what we’re trading and how enabling you to verify past performance and monitor trades forward.

3) VBO 1872198 2000-2021 Performance & Data Spreadsheet

A) Allocation performance
B) Individual method performance
C) Monthly profit or loss
D) Performance statistics

E) Margin requirements
F) Contract specifications
G) 2000 through 2021 monthly and annual performance.

H) Monthly and annual performance for every method traded.

4) Cells J24 – J45 link spreadsheets for each method traded

5) What these spreadsheets provide

A) Full disclosure of trading methodology.
B) Life of program performance summary.
C) 2000-2021 daily open, high, low, close data.
D) Every day’s buy, sell, stop, objective and all volatility calculations.
E) Every trade entry, offset, profit, loss, cumulative profit or loss.

6) To review the top 100,000 VBO allocations or to create your own see this page.

7) Any allocation can be traded automatically for your account, allocations can be modified at any time.

7) Using any reasonable maintenance balance

Account liquidity in portion portion or all, 2 to 48 hours, in any major currency

About Automated Trading Accounts (ATAs)
The ATA Fee Structure
Defining Overall Risk for Your ATA
Brokerage Firms
How Funds Are Protected
Open An Account
Futures General Information
Options General Information
Market Analysis Pages
Educational Resources

If you have questions contact me.

Peter Knight Advisor
Direct VI Phone 24/7 +340 244 4310
Skype: Peter-Knight-Advisor
Message me

Schedule an online review
Peter_Knight@peterknightadvisor.com


Privacy Notice

Disclosure

VBO 82165

2000-2021 Performance & Data Spreadsheet

1) Performance Summary


2) Monthly/annual performance, no compounding, withdrawing all profits annually.


Disclosure

Schedule an online review I’ll walk you through what we’re trading and how enabling you to verify past performance and monitor trades forward.

3) VBO 82165 2000-2021 Performance & Data Spreadsheet

A) Allocation performance
B) Individual method performance
C) Monthly profit or loss
D) Performance statistics

E) Margin requirements
F) Contract specifications
G) 2000 through 2021 monthly and annual performance.

H) Monthly and annual performance for every method traded.

4) Cells J24 – J45 link spreadsheets for each method traded

5) What these spreadsheets provide

A) Full disclosure of trading methodology.
B) Life of program performance summary.
C) 2000-2021 daily open, high, low, close data.
D) Every day’s buy, sell, stop, objective and all volatility calculations.
E) Every trade entry, offset, profit, loss, cumulative profit or loss.

6) To review the top 100,000 VBO allocations or to create your own see this page.

7) Any allocation can be traded automatically for your account, allocations can be modified at any time.

7) Using any reasonable maintenance balance

Account liquidity in portion portion or all, 2 to 48 hours, in any major currency

About Automated Trading Accounts (ATAs)
The ATA Fee Structure
Defining Overall Risk for Your ATA
Brokerage Firms
How Funds Are Protected
Open An Account
Futures General Information
Options General Information
Market Analysis Pages
Educational Resources

If you have questions contact me.

Peter Knight Advisor
Direct VI Phone 24/7 +340 244 4310
Skype: Peter-Knight-Advisor
Message me

Schedule an online review
Peter_Knight@peterknightadvisor.com


Privacy Notice

Disclosure

VBO 4478725

2000-2021 Performance & Data Spreadsheet

1) Performance Summary


2) Monthly/annual performance, no compounding, withdrawing all profits annually.


Disclosure

Schedule an online review I’ll walk you through what we’re trading and how enabling you to verify past performance and monitor trades forward.

3) VBO 4478725 2000-2021 Performance & Data Spreadsheet

A) Allocation performance
B) Individual method performance
C) Monthly profit or loss
D) Performance statistics

E) Margin requirements
F) Contract specifications
G) 2000 through 2021 monthly and annual performance.

H) Monthly and annual performance for every method traded.

4) Cells J24 – J45 link spreadsheets for each method traded

5) What these spreadsheets provide

A) Full disclosure of trading methodology.
B) Life of program performance summary.
C) 2000-2021 daily open, high, low, close data.
D) Every day’s buy, sell, stop, objective and all volatility calculations.
E) Every trade entry, offset, profit, loss, cumulative profit or loss.

6) To review the top 100,000 VBO allocations or to create your own see this page.

7) Any allocation can be traded automatically for your account, allocations can be modified at any time.

7) Using any reasonable maintenance balance

Account liquidity in portion portion or all, 2 to 48 hours, in any major currency

About Automated Trading Accounts (ATAs)
The ATA Fee Structure
Defining Overall Risk for Your ATA
Brokerage Firms
How Funds Are Protected
Open An Account
Futures General Information
Options General Information
Market Analysis Pages
Educational Resources

If you have questions contact me.

Peter Knight Advisor
Direct VI Phone 24/7 +340 244 4310
Skype: Peter-Knight-Advisor
Message me

Schedule an online review
Peter_Knight@peterknightadvisor.com


Privacy Notice

Disclosure

VBO 1193064

VBO 1193064 2000-2021 Performance & Data Spreadsheet

1) Performance Summary


2) Monthly/annual performance, no compounding, withdrawing all profits annually.


Disclosure

Schedule an online review I’ll walk you through what we’re trading and how enabling you to verify past performance and monitor trades forward.

3) VBO 1193064 2000-2021 Performance & Data Spreadsheet

A) Allocation performance
B) Individual method performance
C) Monthly profit or loss
D) Performance statistics

E) Margin requirements
F) Contract specifications
G) 2000 through 2021 monthly and annual performance.

H) Monthly and annual performance for every method traded.

4) Cells J24 – J45 link spreadsheets for each method traded

5) What these spreadsheets provide

A) Full disclosure of trading methodology.
B) Life of program performance summary.
C) 2000-2021 daily open, high, low, close data.
D) Every day’s buy, sell, stop, objective and all volatility calculations.
E) Every trade entry, offset, profit, loss, cumulative profit or loss.

6) To review the top 100,000 VBO allocations or to create your own see this page.

7) Any allocation can be traded automatically for your account, allocations can be modified at any time.

7) Using any reasonable maintenance balance

Account liquidity in portion portion or all, 2 to 48 hours, in any major currency

About Automated Trading Accounts (ATAs)
The ATA Fee Structure
Defining Overall Risk for Your ATA
Brokerage Firms
How Funds Are Protected
Open An Account
Futures General Information
Options General Information
Market Analysis Pages
Educational Resources

If you have questions contact me.

Peter Knight Advisor
Direct VI Phone 24/7 +340 244 4310
Skype: Peter-Knight-Advisor
Message me

Schedule an online review
Peter_Knight@peterknightadvisor.com


Privacy Notice

Disclosure

VBO 26213877

2000-2021 Performance & Data Spreadsheet

1) Performance Summary


2) Monthly/annual performance, no compounding, withdrawing all profits annually.


Disclosure

Schedule an online review I’ll walk you through what we’re trading and how enabling you to verify past performance and monitor trades forward.

3) VBO 26213877 2000-2021 Performance & Data Spreadsheet

A) Allocation performance
B) Individual method performance
C) Monthly profit or loss
D) Performance statistics

E) Margin requirements
F) Contract specifications
G) 2000 through 2021 monthly and annual performance.

H) Monthly and annual performance for every method traded.

4) Cells J24 – J45 link spreadsheets for each method traded

5) What these spreadsheets provide

A) Full disclosure of trading methodology.
B) Life of program performance summary.
C) 2000-2021 daily open, high, low, close data.
D) Every day’s buy, sell, stop, objective and all volatility calculations.
E) Every trade entry, offset, profit, loss, cumulative profit or loss.

6) To review the top 100,000 VBO allocations or to create your own see this page.

7) Any allocation can be traded automatically for your account, allocations can be modified at any time.

7) Using any reasonable maintenance balance

Account liquidity in portion portion or all, 2 to 48 hours, in any major currency

About Automated Trading Accounts (ATAs)
The ATA Fee Structure
Defining Overall Risk for Your ATA
Brokerage Firms
How Funds Are Protected
Open An Account
Futures General Information
Options General Information
Market Analysis Pages
Educational Resources

If you have questions contact me.

Peter Knight Advisor
Direct VI Phone 24/7 +340 244 4310
Skype: Peter-Knight-Advisor
Message me

Schedule an online review
Peter_Knight@peterknightadvisor.com


Privacy Notice

Disclosure