Author: Asset Investment Management

1) A Few of our trades to track capturing the move higher in rates
___Spread values on the right of the chart
___Click on entry price for the intraday chart

1.1) GEZ19-GEZ23 Entry +0.0500, 27 July 2018, each 0.01 = $100.00
1.2) GEZ19-GEZ22 Entry -0.0350, 17 July 2018, each 0.01 = $100.00
1.3) GEZ18-GEZ22 Entry +0.2900, 15 July 2018, each 0.01 = $100.00
1.4) GEZ18-GEZ21 Entry +0.2650, 13 July 2018, each 0.01 = $100.00
1.5) GEU18-GEZ23 Entry +0.5500, 06 July 2018, each 0.01 = $100.00
1.6) GEU18-GEZ20 Entry +0.3900, 29 May 2018, each 0.01 = $100.00
1.7) GEZ18-GEZ20 Entry +0.3150, 29 May 2018, each 0.01 = $100.00
1.8) ZQZ18 Short 99.1650, 03 Oct 2016, each 0.01 = $41.67
1.8) ZQ quotes all deliveries (Fed Funds contract information)
1.10) GE quotes all deliveries (3 month rate contract information)

2) Analysis Pages

2.1)  US Rate Analysis
2.2)  Euro Rate Analysis  

3) Market’s priced in rate hikes by;

3.1) December 2018
3.2) December 2019
3.3) December 2020
3.4) December 2021
3.5) December 2022
3.6) December 2023
3.7) December 2024

4) Market’s priced in expectation by year between;

4.1) December 2018 to December 2019
4.2) December 2019 to December 2020
4.3) December 2020 to December 2021
4.4) December 2021 to December 2022
4.5) December 2022 to December 2023
4.6) December 2023 to December 2024

5) Latest Fed expectations for rate hikes through December 2020 (2:30)
Full Fed press conference video (52:19) & Opening Statement (PDF)
Next Fed Meeting 25 & 26 September 2018

Educational Links US Rate Analysis Euro Rate Analysis Message Me

6) Fed Funds contract valuation for the Fed’s expectations

0.12% contract value = $500.00 (November 2015)
1.82% contract value = $7,583.21 (11 August 2018)
2.40% December 2018 = $10,000.00
3.10% December 2019 = $12,916.67
3.40% December 2020 = $14,166.67
Each 0.01 = $41.67

7) Fed Funds 1954 – 2018 chart  Data & Contract Valuation (excel)

8) Educational Videos and Resources

8.1)   Video – About Eurodollar interest rate futures
8.2)   What the 3 month rate is (Eurodollar) and how it’s set
8.3)   Eurodollar futures pricing and the Forward rate market
8.4)   Video – The basics of  trading Eurodollar interest rate spreads
8.5)   Video – Introduction to Fed Fund futures contracts
8.6)   What the Fed funds rate is and how it’s set
8.7)   Today’s probability for a rate hike at the next Fed meeting
8.8)   Interest rate 3 month to 30 year curve
8.9)   Fed Meetings and Press Conferences
8.10) Understanding the FOMC Report
8.11) Futures  Educational Videos (33)
8.12) Futures Options Educational Videos (34)

9) Previous Rate Reports and Articles 2015 – 2018

9.1)   US Economy by the numbers 2000 – 2018  4 June 2018
9.2)   Trading Rates Higher & Fed Expectations 28 November 2017
9.3)   Trading the Fed Funds rate higher 13 March 2017
9.4)   Trade update 11 August 2016 through 20 January 2017
9.5)   Trading Rates Higher & Fed Expectations 20 January 2017
9.6)   Update Seeking Alpha 13 January 2017
9.7)   Market Versus Fed For Rates 16 September 2016
9.8)   Market Versus Fed Expectations December 2019  4 September 2016
9.9)   Update on Seeking Alpha 5 September 2016
9.10) Who’s right the market or the Fed 31 May 2016
9.11) Original positions published on Seeking Alpha 5 November 2015
9.12) Countdown to Higher Rates 9 October 2015
9.13) Trading 3 Month Rates Higher & Fed Expectations 24 September 2015
9.14) What I See On The Horizon  6 August 2015
9.15)  Hedging Treasury Risk 3 August 2015
9.16) The Math On Why U.S. Inflation Is “contained”  22 July 2015
9.17) Trading the Fed Funds Rate Higher 23 July 2015
9.18) Trading Rates Higher & Fed Expectations  9 June 2015
9.19) Trading 3 Month Rates Higher & Fed Expectations  27 April 2015
9.20) Trading Rates Higher Using Cost Averaging 24 March 2015
9.21) Market versus Fed expectations 23 March 2015

10) Fed Funds Risk Reward Spreadsheets

10.1)    3 Month Rates March, June December Fed Funds March hedge
10.2)    Fed Funds December 2016
10.3)    Fed Funds March 2016 S 99.74 (no hedge)
10.4)    Fed Funds December 2016 S 99.46 (no hedge) 100K
10.5)    Fed Funds December 2016 S 99.46 (no hedge) 10K
10.6)    Trading 3 month rates higher through December 2016
10.7)    July 2015 25k no hedge
10.8)    July 2015 99.83 25K  cost average hedge
10.9)    July 2015 99.82 25K 87.50 hedge
10.10)  July 2015 10K 99.81/99.75 hedge
10.11)  Sep 2015 25k cost average hedge
10.12)  Oct 2015 25K cost average hedge
10.13)  Dec 2015 25K cost average hedge

11) 3 Month Deposit Spreadsheets

11.1)  3 Month Dec 2017 S 99.70 (no hedge)
11.2)  3 Month put weighted vol spread Dec 2017
11.3)  3 Month vol spread Dec 2017
11.4)  3 Month vol bear spread no hedge Dec 2017
11.5)  3 Month GEH-M-Z-201616 Fed Funds ZQ-H16 10.05.2015
11.6) Contract specifications
11.7) 3 Month Hedged Cost Average
11.8) 3 Month Rate September 2015 hedge
11.9) 3 Month Rate December 2015 hedge

12) Other Interest markets we trade

12.1) All US interest rate markets we trade
12.2) European interest rates
12.3) Australian Interest rates
12.4) Educational videos and Links

Open An Account

Account minimum $10,000 USD or major currency equivalent

If you have any questions send a message or contact me

Regards,
Peter Knight

—————————————————————-

Privacy Notice

Disclosure

 

Tradeview provides access to these exchanges, their team is headed by Tim Furey, (X CBOT floor trader) and Mike Lombardo (ran a prop desk for 20 years) they’ve  provided us with superior service, order execution and a knowledgeable polite back office that gets the job done. See sections 6 and 7 below for information on capabilities, regulation and compliance, contact me any questions.

1) To open an account from North America, Europe & Asia. x

Platform = MT4  Innovative Liquidity Connector
Management of account = Third party manager

Individual Account
Non-Professional Certification  (date and sign the bottom)
Tradeview Market Data Futures Options (check non pro, all US & sign)
Electronic Trading & Routing Disclosure  (date and sign the bottom)
W8 Ben  (name and address on top, #9 your country, date and sign the bottom)
Limited Power Attorney (please download and complete)
Hereby Authorize: Peter Knight/Asset Investment Management
Incentive Fees = 7.50% to 12.50% of net new high profits quarterly
Yes, to Incentive/Commission payout
Commission Schedule: Yes
Your Email
Customer Name and Title
Date
Authorized Client Signature
Clients older than 64 additional disclosure

Joint Account
Non-Professional Certification  (date and sign the bottom)
Tradeview Market Data Futures Options (check non pro, all US & sign)
Electronic Trading & Routing Disclosure  (date and sign the bottom)
W8 Ben  (name and address on top, #9 your country, date and sign the bottom)
Limited Power Attorney (please download and complete)
Clients older than 64 additional disclosure
Account Funding

Corporate Account
Non-Professional Certification  (date and sign the bottom)
Tradeview Market Data Futures Options (check non pro, all US & sign)
Electronic Trading & Routing Disclosure  (date and sign the bottom)
W8 Ben  (name and address on top, #9 your country, date and sign the bottom)
Limited Power Attorney (please download an
Click here if you’d like to download and print out account forms
Account Funding

2) To open an account from Spain, Portugal, Jamaica, South America & India

Platform = MT4  Innovative Liquidity Connector
Management of account = Third party manager

Individual
Joint Account
Corporate Account
Non-Professional Certification  (date and sign the bottom)
Tradeview Market Data Futures Options (check non pro, all US & sign)
Electronic Trading & Routing Disclosure  (date and sign the bottom)
W8 Ben  (name and address on top, #9 your country, date and sign the bottom)
Limited Power Attorney (please download an
Clients older than 64 additional disclosure

3) Limited Power of Attorney

Hereby Authorize: Peter Knight/Asset Investment Management
Incentive Fees = 7.50% to 12.50% of net new high profits quarterly
Yes, to Incentive/Commission payout
Commission Schedule: Yes
Your Email
Customer Name and Title
Date
Authorized Client Signature

4) ID and proof address

Color scan of a Passport or other Government issued Identification (Passport, Government ID or Driver License)
Proof of Address, this can be a utility bill or bank statement. (It has to be issued within 3 months)

5) AIM Advisory & Risk Control Agreement  pages that need to be completed

3) Advisory Agreement, page 5, signature & date
4) Broker, currency, initial and maintenance balance, allocation, date and sign
5) Risk disclosure date and sign
6) Fee agreement, start balance date and sign
7) QEP acknowledgment 

Please send scanned copies to peter_knight@peterknightadvisor.com we need to sign off send them to the clearing form and return copies to you.  

6)  Regulation: CIMA, Tradeview Ltd., License 585163, the CIMA regulates

The World’s largest domicile for hedge funds
The World’s second largest domicile for captive insurance companies
The World’s 7th largest banking center assets in excess of $1.14 trillion
Over 10,600 mutual and other funds, assets in excess of $3.575 trillion
Trust companies which manage thousands of smaller trusts.

7) How Tradeview balances are guaranteed plus or minus trade activity

Omnibus Accounts are guaranteed by The Financial Safeguard System.
All customer accounts are Segregated and independently audited.
Independent Auditors: Apex Group (12,000 employees 50+ global offices)

8) Account Trading Capabilities

One opening process enables you to trade Futures, Forex, Stocks, ETFs & CFDs

Exchanges	Exchange location
BATS Options	USA
BME (Madrid Stock Exchange)	Spain
BOX (Boston Options Exchange)	USA
CBOE (Chicago Board Options Exchange)	USA
CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade)	USA
CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange)	USA
CSE (OMX Copenhagen)	Denmark
EURONEXT Amsterdam	The Netherlands
EURONEXT Brussels	Belgium
EURONEXT Lisbon	Portugal
EURONEXT Paris	France
FSE (Frankfurt Stock Exchange)	Germany
HKEx (Hong Kong Exchanges)	Hong Kong
HSE (OMX Helsinki)	Finland
ISE (International Securities Exchange)	USA
LSE (London Stock Exchange)	UK
MEX (Mexican Stock Exchange)	Mexico
MIL (Milan Stock Exchange)	Italy
MOEX (Moscow Exchange)	Russia
NASDAQ Options Market	USA
NASDAQ	USA
NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange)	USA
NYSE (New York Stock Exchange)	USA
NYSE ARCA	USA
NYSE AMEX	USA
NYSE MKT	USA
OSE (Oslo Stock Exchange)	Norway
PHLX (Philadelphia Stock Exchange)	USA
SET (Stock Exchanges of Thailand)	Thailand
SIX (Swiss Exchange)	Switzerland
SSE (OMX Stockholm)	Sweden
TSE (Tokyo Stock Exchange)	Japan
TSE (Toronto Stock Exchange)	Canada
TSX (Toronto Venture Exchange)	Canada
UE (Ukrainian Exchange)	Ukraine
VIE (Vienna Stock Exchange)	Austria

Recommended Starting Balance	$35,000.00
Cumulative Net Profit	$414,996.11
Maximum Drawdown (41.85%)	($14,646.13)
Best Year 2008 +220.98%	$77,342.39
Worst Year 2007 +7.29%	$2,552.59
2007-2020 Average +81.31%	$28,456.88
2021   (41.85%)	($14,646.13)

Performance is based on trading one $35,000 unit, never adding units and withdrawing all net profits annually. The program has a realistic risk factor of $20,000 USD per unit, if you are not in a position to comfortably assume this risk you should not participate in the program.

Risk Disclosure         Defining Account Risk

Program Structure and Account Opening Procedure

 Automated Trading Accounts (ATA)
The Fee Structure For This Program
Defining Overall Risk For Your Account
How Balances Are Guaranteed Plus or Minus Trading
Exchanges Traded
Brokerage Firms

If you have questions send a message  or contact me

Regards,
Peter Knight

—————————————————————-

Privacy Notice

Risk Disclosure

 

Introduction (9:23)

Analysis Page   Educational Videos & Resources    Send A Message

Performance summary 8 January 2007 – 15 June 2018

Recommended Starting Balance	$25,000.00
Cumulative Net Profit	$332,848.38
Maximum Drawdown	($12,457.00)
Best Year 2015 +225.15%	$56,287.50
Worst Year 2012 +3.60%	$900.00
2007-2018 Average +116.03%	$29,048.59
2018 +91.36%	$22,840.38

Risk Disclosure

Risk Disclosure

1) Disclosure of Trading Methodology (21:56)

Send a message if you have any questions.

1.1) 1983 – 2018 chart
1.2) 10 Year Chart, Monthly Data
1.3) 5 Year Chart, Weekly Data
1.4) 1 Year Chart, Daily Data ESM18)
1.5) 1 Month using 60 minute data (ESM18)
1.6) Today’s using 5 minute data (ESM18)
1.7) Today’s Technical Opinion(ESM18)
1.8) Ranges & Price Performance (ESM18)
1.9) Support & Resistance
1.10) Barchart Quotes, All Deliveries
1.11) Barchart Options Quotes
1.12) CME Futures Quotes, All Deliveries
1.13) CME Option Quotes
1.14) Contract Specifications each 1.00 = $50.00
1.15) Exchange Margin Requirement
1.16) S&P 500 Collar Spreadsheet

2) Educational

2.1) Basics of the Futures
2.2) Basics of Futures Options
2.3) S&P Educational Videos and Links
2.4) Introduction to Order Types
2.5) Detailed Description of Order Types With Examples
2.6) Understanding Futures Margin Requirements
2.7) Understanding Moving Averages
2.8) Understanding Support and Resistance
2.9) About Bollinger Bands & How to Set Them
2.10) Defining Trend, Trade Duration & Number of Contracts Traded
2.11) Explaining Call Options (Short and Long)
2.12) Explaining Put Options (Short and Long)
2.13) Option Collars
2.14) Working Examples of Collaring Positions and Potential Profit/Loss
2.15) 20 year chart of the S&P Priced in Gold
2.16) Test this strategy on any Bull or Bear market from 1983 to 2018
2.17) Test this strategy on any of these 17 related and unrelated markets
2.18) Quotes, charts and analysis for all 500 stocks
2.19) SEC filings & information for all 500 stocks

3) The Importance of Trading Long and Short (3:23)

Analysis Page   Educational Videos & Resources   Send Me A Message

3.1) Full Disclosure of trading Methodology
3.2) All Bull & Bear Markets 1983 to 2018
3.3) Excel Spreadsheet 1927-2018 historical data and inflation adjusted
3.4) U.S. Stock Index futures we trade
3.5) European Stock Index futures we trade
3.6) Asian Stock Index Futures
3.7) Why Trade Futures Instead of ETFs?
3.8) A Cost Comparison – Futures versus ETFs
3.9) Top 100 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)

4) Program Structure and Account Opening Procedure

4.1) (ATA’s), What They Are and How They Work
4.2) The Fee Structure For This Program
4.3) Defining Overall Risk For Your Account
4.4) How Balances Are Guaranteed Plus or Minus Trading
4.5) How To Open An Account

Other Stock Indices Traded Using This Methodology

5) Euro Stoxx 50 Symbol FX

5.1) 7 Year Chart, Monthly Data
5.2) 3 Year Chart, Weekly Data
5.3) 6 Month Chart, Daily Data
5.4) Today’s Technical Opinion
5.5) Futures Quotes
5.6) Options Quotes
5.7) Contract Specifications3)

6) Dax Index Symbol DY

6.1) 7 Year Chart, Monthly Data
6.2) 3 Year Chart, Weekly Data
6.3) 6 Month Chart, Daily Data
6.4) Today’s Technical Opinion
6.5) Futures Quotes
6.6) Options Quotes
6.7) Contract Specifications

7) Stoxx E600 Banks Symbol FA

7.1) 7 Year Chart, Monthly Data
7.2) 3 Year Chart, Weekly Data
7.3) 6 Month Chart, Daily Data
7.4) Today’s Technical Opinion
7.5) Futures Quotes
7.6) Contract Specifications

8) CAC 40 Symbol MX

8.1) 7 Year Chart, Monthly Data
8.2) 3 Year Chart, Weekly Data
8.3) 6 Month Chart, Daily Data
8.4) Today’s Technical Opinion
8.5) Futures Quotes
8.6) Options Quotes
8.7) Contract Specifications

9) Swiss Market Index Symbol SZ

9.1) 7 Year Chart, Monthly Data
9.2) 3 Year Chart, Weekly Data
9.3) 6 Month Chart, Daily Data
9.4) Today’s Technical Opinion
9.5) Futures Quotes
9.6) Options Quotes
9.7) Contract Specifications

10) Gold/Dollar to Global Stock Indices

10.1) S&P 500 (ES) Gold (GC) Ratio 20 year using monthly data
10.2) ES/GC last 12 months using daily data

10.3) Euro Stoxx 50 (FX) Gold (GC) Ratio 20 year using monthly data
10.4) FX/GC last 12 months using daily data

10.5) FTSE 100 (X) Gold (GC Ratio) 20 year using monthly data
10.6) X/GC last 12 months using daily data

10.7) DAX (DY) Gold (GC) Ratio 20 year using monthly data
10.8) DY/GC last 12 months using daily data

10.9) CAC 40 (MX) Gold (GC) Ratio 20 year using monthly data
10.10) MX/GC last 12 months using daily data

11) Other Markets Traded Using This Methodology

11.1) Any stock in the S&P 500 with options liquidity
11.2) Any of the top 100 performing stocks
11.3) U.S. Futures markets
11.4) European Futures markets

12) US Economy Reality 2000 – 2018

13) Major currencies priced in Gold/USD May 2003 to May 2018

The quiet global race to monetize debt

13.1) Gold USD +357.60%
13.2) Gold GBP +334.23%
13.3) Gold EUR +254.05%
13.4) Gold CAD +238.55%
13.5) Gold JPY +232.03%
13.6) Gold AUD +214.54%
13.7) Gold CHF +177.12%

If you have questions send us a message or contact us

Regards,
Peter Knight Advisor

—————————————————————-

Privacy Notice

Risk Disclosure

x

WTIU	Crude Daily 3X Long Proshares	170.55%
OILU	Ultrapro Crude Oil Proshares	167.73%
UWT	Velocity 3X Long Crude Oil	160.96%
USOU	United States 3X Oil Fund	137.71%
UCO	Ultra DJ-UBS Crude Oil Proshares	104.53%
TECL	Technology Bull 3X Direxion	97.65%
LABU	Direxion S&P Biotech Bull 3X	94.81%
SOXL	Semiconductor Bull 3X Direxion	94.20%
HOU.TO	Betapro Crude Oil 2X Daily Bull ETF	92.15%
TQQQ	Ultrapro QQQ Proshares	85.69%
DFEN	Direxion Daily Aerospace Defense Bull 3X Shares	82.92%
USD	Ultra Semiconductors Proshares	77.86%
GUSH	Direxion S&P Oil & Gas Expl Bull 3X	73.58%
CWEB	Direxion CSI China Internet Idx Bull 2X	72.22%
ARKW	Ark Web X.0 ETF	69.02%
BNO	US Brent Oil	68.47%
ROM	Ultra Technology Proshares	67.57%
ARKK	Ark Innovation ETF	66.09%
PTH	DWA Healthcare Mmtm Port PS	62.18%
HOML	Etracs Mt Reset 2X ISE Exc Homebuilders ETN	58.58%
URTY	Ultrapro Russell 2000 Proshares	58.24%
TNA	Smallcap Bull 3X Direxion	57.58%
UDOW	Ultrapro DOW 30 Proshares	56.83%
BBC	Bioshares Biotech Clinical Trial	56.80%
QLD	Ultra QQQ Proshares	55.89%
RETL	Retail Bull 3X Direxion	55.43%
UHN	US Heating Oil	55.39%
IBUY	Amplify Onln Rtl ETF	54.18%
PSCH	S&P Smallcap Health Care Port PS	53.65%
HQU.TO	Betapro Nasdaq 100 2X Daily Bull ETF	52.97%
OLO	DB Crude Oil ETN Powershares	52.64%
DBO	DB Oil Fund PS	51.72%
FDN	DJ Internet Index First Trust	51.46%
FBGX	FI Enhanced Large Cap Growth ETN	51.25%
DTYS	Ipath Treasury 10-Year Bear ETN	51.08%
FLGE	CS FI Large Cap Growth Enhanced ETN	49.69%
SBIO	Alps Medical Breakthroughs ETF	48.62%
FINX	G-X Fintech Thematic ETF	48.37%
YINN	Direxion FTSE China Bull 3X	48.21%
OIIL	CS X-Links WTI Crude Oil Index ETN	47.81%
BDD	DB Base Metals 2X ETN Powershares	47.74%
OLEM	Ipath Pure Beta Crude Oil ETN	47.64%
OILB	Ipath S&P GSCI Crude Oil TR Index Series B ETN	47.63%
XITK	Factset Innovative Technology SPDR	47.41%
DBE	DB Energy Fund PS	47.06%
ERX	Energy Bull 3X Direxion	46.77%
OILX	Etracs S&P GSCI Crude Oil TR ETN	46.50%
USO	US Oil Fund	46.48%
UGA	US Gasoline	45.96%
USL	US 12 Month Oil	45.82%
RJN	Rogers Energy ETN Elements	45.79%
PSJ	Dynamic Software Port PS	45.04%
UBN	CMCI Energy TR ETN UBS E-Tracs	44.07%
SAA	Ultra Smallcap 600 Proshares	43.62%
UPRO	Ultrapro S&P 500 Proshares	42.98%
PNQI	Nasdaq Internet Portfolio PS	42.39%
SLIM	Obesity ETF	41.80%
ARKG	Ark Genomic Revolution Multi-Sector ETF	41.64%
IGV	North American Tech-Software Ishares ETF	41.28%
CRAK	Oil Refiners Vaneck ETF	41.10%
FCA	China Alphadex Fund FT	40.77%
SKYY	Cloud Computing ETF FT	40.50%
PXMG	Russell Midcap Pure Growth Port PS	40.37%
XWEB	S&P Internet ETF SPDR	39.50%
KWEB	Kranes CSI China ETF	39.16%
UMDD	Ultrapro Midcap 400 Proshares	39.12%
OILK	Crude Oil Strategy Proshares	38.44%
UWM	Ultra Russell 2000 Proshares	38.44%
UCC	Ultra Consumer Services Proshares	38.25%
PTF	DWA Technology Mmtm Port PS	38.08%
SMLL	Direxion Smallcap Bull	38.03%
XBM.TO	Ishares SP TSX Global Base Mtls ETF	37.67%
PXE	Dynamic Energy Explor & Prod Port PS	37.55%
SPXL	Direxion S&P 500 Bull 3X	37.29%
IGM	North American Tech Ishares ETF	37.20%
FTXN	Nasdaq Oil & Gas ETF FT	36.37%
FFTY	Innovator Ibd 50 Fund ETF	36.35%
XSW	S&P Software & Srvs ETF SPDR	35.77%
SOCL	G-X Social Media ETF	35.76%
DPST	Direxion Regional Banks Bull 3X	35.73%
XHE	S&P Healthcare Equipment SPDR	35.65%
IPAY	Purefunds ISE Mobile Payments ETF	34.99%
MIDU	Direxion Mid Cap Bull 3X	34.79%
BTEC	Principal Healthcare Innovators Index	34.73%
FXL	Technology Alphadex First Trust	34.63%
XBI	S&P Biotech SPDR	34.53%
FTXL	Nasdaq Semiconductor ETF FT	34.45%
XNTK	SPDR Series Trust	33.89%
IEO	US Oil & Gas Explor & Prod Ishares ETF	33.44%
BUZ	Sprott Buzz Social Media Insights ETF	33.35%
FTEC	Fidelity Info Tech MSCI ETF	33.11%
XIT.TO	Ishares SP TSX Capped Info Tech ETF	32.68%
DIG	Ultra Oil & Gas Proshares	32.50%
FHQ.TO	First Trust US Technology ETF	32.25%
FYC	Smallcap Growth Alphadex Fund FT	30.73%
HACK	Etfmg Prime Cyber Security ETF	29.94%
XOP	S&P Oil & Gas Expl & Prod SPDR	29.50%
PXSG	Russell 2000 Pure Growth Port PS	29.28%

 

Fed expectations for hikes through December 2020 (as of 13 June 2018)
Full Fed press conference video (52:19) & Opening Statement (PDF)
Next Fed Meeting 31 July – 1 August 2018

Educational Links US Rate Analysis Euro Rate Analysis

2) Fed’s expectations and contract valuations

0.12% contract value = $500.00 (November 2015)
1.97% contract value = $8,208.33 (13 June 2018)
2.40% December 2018 = $10,000.00
3.10% December 2019 = $12,916.67
3.40% December 2020 = $14,166.67
Each 0.01 = $41.67

3) Fed Funds 1954 – 2018 chart     Data & Contract Valuation (excel)

Four trades capturing the move higher in rates contact me or others.

4) Trading Fed Funds Futures

4.1) ZQZ18 Quote
4.2) 2 Year chart (daily data)
4.3) Quotes all deliveries
4.4) About Fed Funds Futures
4.5) What the Fed Funds Rate is and How it’s set
4.6) Interest Rate Educational Videos and Links
4.7) Today’s probability for a rate hike at the next Fed meeting
4.8) US Economic Reality 2000-2018

5) Fed Funds Trade

Entry = 0.8350 value $3,479.17 to Fed Objective 3.40 value $14,166.65

5.1) Entry short ZQZ18 99.1650 (3 October 2016)
Rate the contract price represents 100.0000 – 99.1650 = 0.8350%
Contract value = 0.8350 X $4,166.67 = $3,479.17

5.2) At Fed’s Objective 100.0000 – 3.40 = 99.6000
Rate the contract price represents 100.0000 – 99.6000 = 3.4000%
Contract value = 3.4000 X $4,166.67 = $14,166.65
Gain if the Fed is correct = +$10,687.48
This position will need to be rolled December 2018

Current chart updated every 5 minutes, each 0.01 = $41.67

6) Trading 3 month deposits outside the Treasury System (eurodollars)

6.1) Quotes all deliveries
6.2) About Eurodollar Interest Rate Futures
6.3) Video the basics of trading Eurodollar interest rate spreads
6.4) Interest Rate Educational Videos and Links
6.5) Today’s probability for a rate hike at the next Fed meeting
6.6) US Economic Reality 2000-2018

7) Trading the rate hikes between September 2018 and December 2020

Entry = 0.39 value $3,900 to the Fed’s Objective 1.40 value $14,000

7.1) Entry the 29th of May 2018
Long 4 December 2018 GEU18 97.6350
Short 4 December 2020 GEZ20 – 97.2450
IntraMarket Spread GEZ18 97.6350 – GEZ20 97.2450 = 0.39
Market’s expected rate hike between Sep. 2018 & Dec. 2020 = 0.39%
Entry position value = 0.3900 X $10,000.00 = $3,900.00

7.2) Our Objective is the Fed’s Target
Fed’s expected rate hikes by December 2020 = 1.40
Position value at the Fed’s target, 1.40 X $10,000.00 = $14,000.00
(The nearby delivery will have to be “rolled” quarterly)
7 year spread chart GEU18 – GEZ20

Intraday GEU18 -GEZ20 chart updated every 5 minutes each 0.01 = $100.00

Strategy: I’m using split objectives on this trade, 1/2 of the position (2 contracts) in at 0.40 or better out at 0.55 to 0.75. 1/2 (2 contracts) trading long-term from 0.3150 to the objective of 1.40 or until we have to roll the GEU18 or the major trend reverses.

8) Trading Rate hikes between December 2018 and December 2020

8.1) Entry the 29th of May 2018
Long 4 December 2018 GEZ18 97.4200
Short 4 December 2020 GEZ20 – 97.1050
IntraMarket Spread GEZ18 97.42 – GEZ20 97.1050 = 0.3150
Market’s expected rate hike between Dec. 2018 & Dec. 2020 = 0.3150%”
Position value 0.3150 X $10,000.00 = $3,150.00
Spread chart GEZ18 – GEZ20 in at 0.3150 expecting the price to increase
Complete report on this trade

8.2) Minimum Objective 0.65
Position value at 0.3150 entry = $3,150.00
Position value at the minimum objective of 0.65 = $6,500
Gain = $3,350 (106.34%)
Spread chart GEZ18 – GEZ20

8.3) At the Fed’s 1.00 target
Position value at 0.3150 entry = $3,150.00
Position value at the Fed’s target of 1.00 = $10,000.00
Gain = $6,850.00 (217.45%)
Spread chart GEZ18 – GEZ20

Current chart updated every 5 minutes, each 0.01 = $100.00

Strategy: I’m using split objectives on this trade, 1/2 of the position (2 contracts) in at 0.40 or better out at 0.55 to 0.65. 1/2 (2 contracts) trading long-term from 0.3150 to the objective of 1.10 or until we have to roll the GEZ18 or the major trend reverses.

9) Trading Rate hikes between September 2018 and December 2023

9.1) Entry the 31th of May 2018
Long 4 September 2018 GEU18 97.5650
Short 4 December 2023 GEU23 – 96.9950
Intramarket Spread GEU18 (97.5650) – GEZ23 (96.9950) =0.5750%
Market’s expected rate hike between Sep. 2018 & Dec. 2023 = 0.5750%
Position value 0.5750 X $10,000.00 = $5,750.00
Spread chart GEZ18 – GEZ23 in at 0.5750 expecting the price to increase

9.2) Minimum Objective 1.00
Position value at 0.5750 entry =$5,750.00
Position value at the minimum objective of 1.00 = $10,000.00
Gain = $4,250.00 (73.91%)
Spread chart GEZ18 – GEZ23

9.3) Our Long Term Objective 2.10
Position value at 0.5750 entry = $5,750.00
Position value at the objective 2.10 = $21,000.00
Gain = $15,250.00 (265.21%)
Spread chart GEZ18 – GEZ23

Current chart updated every 30 minutes, each 0.01 = $100.00

Strategy: I’m using split objectives on this trade, 1/2 of the position (2 contracts) in at 0.60 or better out at 0.75 to 0.90. 1/2 (2 contracts) trading long-term from 0.5750 to the objective of 2.10 or until we have to roll the GEU18 or the major trend reverses.

10) If you’d like to track additional positions send me message

Other rates traded
10.1) US Rates Traded
10.2) European Rates Traded
10.3) Australian Interest rates Traded

11) Rate Reports

11.1) Trading 3 Month Rates Higher & Fed Expectations 24 September 2015
11.2) Countdown To Higher U.S. Interest Rates 9 October 2015
11.3) Market Versus Fed For Rates 16 September 2016
11.4) Trading Rates Higher & Fed Expectations 20 January 2017
11.5) Trading Rates Higher & Fed Expectations 13 March 2017
11.6) Trading Rates Higher & Fed Expectations 28 November 2017

12) Original Positions & Updates Published On Seeking Alpha & Here

12.1) Original positions published on Seeking Alpha 5 November 2015
12.2) Update on Seeking Alpha 5 September 2016
12.3) Update Seeking Alpha 13 January 2017
12.4) Trading Rates Higher Using Cost Averaging 24 March 2015
12.5) Trading 3 Month Rates Higher & Fed Expectations 27 April 2015
12.7) Trading Rates Higher & Fed Expectations 9 June 2015
12.8) The Math On Why U.S. Inflation Is “contained” 22 July 2015
12.9) Hedging Treasury Risk 3 August 2015
12.10) Trading the Fed Funds Rate Higher 23 July 2015
12.11) What I See On The Horizon 6 August 2015

13) Fed Funds Risk Reward Spreadsheets

13.1) What the Fed funds rate is and how it’s set
13.2) 3 Month Rates March, June December Fed Funds March hedge
13.3) Fed Funds December 2016
13.4) Fed Funds March 2016 S 99.74 (no hedge)
13.5) Fed Funds December 2016 S 99.46 (no hedge) 100K
13.6) Fed Funds December 2016 S 99.46 (no hedge) 10K
13.7) Trading 3 month rates higher through December 2016
13.8) July 2015 25k no hedge
13.9) July 2015 99.83 25K cost average hedge
13.10) July 2015 99.82 25K 87.50 hedge
13.11) July 2015 10K 99.81/99.75 hedge
13.12) Sep 2015 25k cost average hedge
13.13) Oct 2015 25K cost average hedge
13.14) Dec 2015 25K cost average hedge

14) 3 Month Deposit Spreadsheets

14.1) What the 3 month rate is and it’s history
14.2) 3 Month Dec 2017 S 99.70 (no hedge)
14.2) 3 Month put weighted vol spread Dec 2017
14.3) 3 Month vol spread Dec 2017
14.4) 3 Month vol bear spread no hedge Dec 2017
14.5) 3 Month GEH-M-Z-201616 Fed Funds ZQ-H16 10.05.2015
14.6) Contract specifications
14.7) 3 Month Hedged Cost Average
14.8) 3 Month Rate September 2015 hedge
14.9) 3 Month Rate December 2015 hedge

15) Other Interest markets we trade

15.1) All US interest rate markets we trade
15.2) European interest rates
15.3) Australian Interest rates
15.4) Educational videos and Links

Open An Account

If you’d like to review this trade, or any of the other programs in our line-up contact me.

Regards,
Peter Knight Advisor
Asset Investment Management

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Disclosure

 

• Employed US population 2007-2018 is down 1.29%
• Reported Consumer Prices up 47.84%, actual prices up 68.20% to 135.60%
• 2000-2018 total Federal Revenue increased by 63.54%
• 2000 to 2018 Federal debt increased by 265.30%
• Average Treasury yield prior to “Economic Stimulus” = 6.26%
• Average Treasury Yield since “”Economic Stimulus” = 2.59%
• Each Taxpayer’s portion of the national debt, $44,069 to $142,698
• If rates normalize debt service cost would consume nearly 40% of total Federal Revenue.

Actual Median Income	Gold Price	Income in Gold 2000-2018
2000 $41,990	$280	150 ounces
2018 $59,039	$1,270	46 ounces
Decrease		-69.03%

US Income & Population 2000 – 2018
Median Income Adjusted	0.01%
Median Income Actual	40.60%
Actual Income in Ounces of Gold	-69.03%
Employed US Population	-1.29%
Unemployment Rate	-0.06%
Reported Consumer Prices (CPI)	47.70%
Growth in Federal Revenue	63.54%
US Population Growth	16.60%
Growth In Federal Debt	265.30%
Growth in Debt As A Percentage of GDP	83.60%
What Artificially low rates has cost savers 2009-2018	6.34 trillion
Increases To Consumers 2000-2018
Federal Debt Per Taxpayer	223.81%
Median Home Price	98.40%
Mortgage Debt Outstanding	99.60%
Median Rent	74.40%
Groceries	91.90%
Automobile (Honda Accord #1 Seller)	48.97%
All Consumer Energy Costs	89.60%
Consumer Gasoline Prices	115.30%
Heating Oil	151.20%
Consumer Electricity	68.20%
Personal Health Care	135.60%
Consumer Medical Care	89.10%
Tuition, school fees, childcare	132.30%
Water, Sewer Trash	108.80%
All Sectors; Debt Securities and Loans;	152.03%
BLS.GOV Inflation Calculator	47.84%
Average	100.22%
Spending & Debt 2000-2018
Gross Public Debt	247.46%
Federal Debt	265.29%
Interest Paid On The National Debt	21.05%
Total Annual Federal Spending	137.07%
Fed Annual Spending Per Capita	103.31%
Annual Healthcare Expenditures	246.23%
Annual Healthcare Per Capita	197.02%
Annual Defense Spending	142.19%
Annual Spending Welfare	142.18%
Annual Federal Pensions	141.74%
Annual on Social Security	120.51%
Federal Debt to GDP	83.60%
Total State Debt	118.18%
Total State Spending	131.58%
Total Local Debt	113.33%
Total Local Spending	83.83%
Local Annual Spending on Education	117.71%
Average	141.90%
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 2000-2018
Non Adjusted Growth in US GDP	88.54%
Non Adjusted GDP to Federal Debt	87.13%
Adjusted GDP to Federal Debt	83.60%
Stocks 2000-2018
Nasdaq 100	98.40%
DOW	125.18%
S&P	105.15%
Average	109.58%
Commodities 2000-2018
Gold	356.18%
Silver	212.21%
Platinum	85.74%
Palladium	104.29%
Copper	267.86%
Median Home Price	98.40%
Crude Oil	145.63%
Wheat	125.21%
Corn	82.55%
Soybeans	102.46%
Cattle	61.76%
Cotton	67.82%
Lumber	71.39%
Average	137.04%
Non US Stock Indices
DAX (2001)	146.43%
Swiss Market Index	24.36%
CAC 40	-3.15%
Euro Stoxx 50 (2001)	-24.09%
Average	35.89%

Looking at the hard numbers it’s evident that true US inflation is running much higher than reported inflation.

This under reporting might be acceptable if  median income was rising as quickly as true inflation but it’s not, Median Income from 2000 to 2018 was up a mere 0.0085% (adjusted) 40.60% (actual)  while reported inflation was up 47.70% and true inflation over 100%.

During “Economic Stimulus” quality of life for US citizens has deteriorated faster than any other period since the Great Depression.

Why does the BLS.GOV under report inflation?

By under reporting inflation the US Government has been able to suppress interest rates, with it debt service cost. Currently the average interest rate paid on US Government Debt is 2.52% or 3.74% below the 20 year average of 6.26% prior to “Economic Stimulus”.

Average Treasury rates prior to “Economic Stimulus” = 6.26%

Average Treasury rates since “Economic Stimulus” = 2.59%

Primary Governmental Motivation

If inflation was being reported accurately and rates normalized it would cost the US. Government an additional 790 billion annually in debt service cost.

Should rate normalization occur, annual debt service cost would be greater than 1.3 trillion, consuming nearly 40% of all tax receipts.

Projected budget deficits would increase from 850 billion in 2018 to over 1.6 trillion.

Secondary Governmental Motivation

Currently desperate depositors looking for higher interest income to survive have been sucked into Treasuries with longer dated maturities.  This has enabled the Federal Government to “fix” its debt for the longest period of time at the lowest rate on record.

As rates rise the liquidation price of these Treasuries will fall for example, if a 10 year is trading at 100.00 = liquidation value $100,000 with a yield of 3.00% should rates rise by 2.00% this Treasury will be discounted by $20,000 with its liquidation value falling from $100,000 at 3.00% to $80,000 at 5.00%. (10 year X 2.00% – $20,000)

My conclusion is the US and other countries will continue their inflation misrepresentations in an attempt to quietly monetize their debt. Their expectation is that incomes will eventually rise from inflation generating more tax revenue while at the same time the majority of Government debt is fixed greater than 6 years. End result increased tax revenue and discounted debt.

The upside is inflation misrepresentations, short-term rates rising, trade wars, and political tension with fuel major market moves in 2019 and beyond.

If you have questions send a message  or contact me

Regards,
Peter Knight Advisor

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Privacy Notice

Risk Disclosure

US Income & Population	2000 to 2018 Increase In US Dollars	2000 to 2018 Increase In ounces OfGold
Median Income	0.0085%
US Population Growth	16.60%
Employed US Population	-1.29%
Reported Consumer Prices (CPI)	47.70%
Acutal Increases For Consumners	2000-2018
Federal Debt Per Taxpayer	223.81%
Median Home Price	98.40%
Mortgage Debt Outstanding	99.60%
Median Rent	74.40%
Groceries	91.90%
All Consumer Energy Costs	89.60%
Consumer Gasoline Prices	115.30%
Heating Oil	151.20%
Consumer Electricity	68.20%
Personal Health Care	135.60%
Consumer Medical Care	89.10%
Tuition, school fees, childcare	132.30%
Water, Sewer Trash	108.80%
All Sectors; Debt Securities and Loans;	152.03%
US Governmental Spending & Debt	2000-2018
Gross Public Debt	247.45%
Federal Debt	265.30%
Total Annual Federal Spending	132.96%
Fed Annual Spending Per Capita	143.28%
Fed Annual Healthcare Expenditures	246.23%
Fed Annual Healthcare Per Capita	197.02%
Annual Defense Spending	142.19%
Annual Spending Welfare	142.18%
Annual Federal Pensions	141.74%
Annual on Social Security	120.51%
Federal Debt to GDP	83.60%
Total State Debt	118.18%
Total State Spending	131.58%
Total Local Debt	113.33%
Total Local Spending	83.83%
Annual  Spending on Education	117.71%
Federal Budget Surplus in 2000	$236,241,000,000
Federal Budget Deficit 2017	-$665,372,000,000
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
US Gross Domestic Product	$19,390,600,000,000
Non Adjusted Growth in US GDP	88.54%
Non Adjusted GDP to Federal Debt	87.13%
Adjusted Federal Debt to GDP	83.60%
Cummulative Increases 2000- 2017	2000-2018
US Per Capita Median Income	$505
All Sectors; Debt Securities and Loans;	$41,375,300,000,000
Gross Public debt	$17,520,000,000,000
Total Trade Deficits	$9,197,751,000,000

Setting up a Gold collar trade (21:11)

1) Review links

1.01) 20 Year chart using monthly data
1.02) 10 Year Chart, monthly Data
1.03) 3 Year chart, weekly data
1.04) 6 month chart, daily data
1.05) 10 day chart 60-minute data
1.06) Today’s using 5-minute data
1.07) Today’s Technical Opinion
1.08) Ranges & Price Performance
1.09) Support & Resistance
1.10) Barchart Quotes, All Deliveries
1.11) Barchart Options Quotes
1.12) CME Futures Quotes, All Deliveries
1.13) CME Option Quotes
1.14) Contract Specifications each 1.00 = $100.00
1.15) Exchange Margin Requirement
1.16) Metals Analysis Page
1.17) Gold-Collar-Spreadsheet
1.18) Track 72 EMA contract markets

2) Educational

2.01) Basics of the Futures Markets
2.02) Basics of Futures Options
2.03) Gold Futures Video
2.04) Gold Educational Videos and Links
2.05) Introduction to Order Types
2.06) Detailed Description of Order Types With Examples
2.07) Understanding Futures Margin Requirements
2.08) Understanding Moving Averages
2.09) Understanding Support and Resistance
2.10) About Bollinger Bands & How to Set Them
2.11) Defining Trend, Trade Duration & Number of Contracts Traded
2.12) Explaining Call Options (Short and Long)
2.13) Explaining Put Options (Short and Long)
2.14) Option Collars

3) Program Structure and Account Opening Procedure

3.1) (ATA’s), What They Are and How They Work
3.2) The Fee Structure For This Program
3.3) Defining Overall Risk For Your Account
3.4) How Balances Are Guaranteed Plus or Minus Trading
3.5) How To Open An Account

4) Primary Metals Exchanges

4.1) Chicago Mercantile Exchange/Comex
4.2) Additional Gold trading Information From the CME
4.3) London Metal Exchange

 

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