Who’s called rates better the Market or the Fed?

Sure the Fed has been wrong about the rate they set but they been more accurate than 17 trillion in the face value of open positions.

Below are all the Fed press conferences versus the Market’s expectation since the 18th of September 2013, I’ll keep this updated after every Fed press conference posted on their site.

2018 Fed or Mkt? Rate on Fed meeting date Fed est. + or – by Dec 2020 Market est. by Dec 2020
18-19 Dec 2.27% 0.73% -0.16%
25-26 Sep 1.95% 1.45% 0.77%
12-12 Jun 1.82% 1.82% 0.74%
20-21 Mar 1.51% 1.89% 0.71%
2017 Fed or Mkt Rate on Fed meeting date Fed est. + or – by Dec 2018 Market est. by Dec 2018 Actual hike Dec 2018
12-13 Dec Fed 1.30% 0.80% 0.49% 0.97%
19-20 Sep Fed 1.15% 0.95% 0.45% 1.12%
13-14 Jun Fed 1.04% 1.06% 0.46% 1.23%
14-15 Mar Mkt 0.79% 1.48% 1.07% 1.31%
2016 Fed or Mkt Rate on Fed meeting date Fed est. + or – by Dec 2018 Market est. by Dec 2018 Actual hike Dec 2018
13-14 Dec Fed 0.54% 1.70% 1.11% 1.73%
20-21 Sep Fed 0.40% 1.40% 0.38% 1.87%
14-15 Jun Fed 0.38% 2.12% 0.51% 1.89%
15-16 Mar Fed 0.36% 2.64% 0.94% 1.91%
2015 Fed or Mkt Rate on Fed meeting date Fed est. hike by Dec 2017 Market’s est. hike by Dec 17 Actual hike by Dec 2017
15-16 Dec Mkt 0.24% 3.01% 1.10% 1.06%
16-17 Sep Mkt 0.14% 3.36% 1.33% 1.16%
16-17 Jun Mkt 0.13% 2.97% 1.81% 1.17%
17-18 Mar Mkt 0.11% 2.99% 1.93% 1.19%
2014 Fed or Mkt? Rate on Fed meeting date Fed est. hike by Dec 2016 Market hike by Dec 16 Actual rise Dec 2016
16-17 Dec Mkt 0.12% 2.38% 1.40% 0.29%
16-17 Sep Mkt 0.09% 2.81% 1.73% 0.32%
17-18 Jun 0.10% No Guidance 1.73% 0.31%
18-19 Mar 0.08% No Guidance 1.75% 0.33%
2013 Fed or Mkt Rate on Fed meeting date Fed est. + or – by Dec 2015 Market hike by Dec 16 Actual hike Dec 2015
17-18 Dec Fed 0.09% 0.91% 0.74% 0.03%
17-18 Sep Fed 0.08% 0.92% 1.35% 0.04%

How we’re trading these moves

Performance for our Long/Short rate performance 2015 through 2018

Market’s rate expectation through 2027

If you have any questions send a message or contact me

Regards,
Peter Knight Advisor

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Privacy Notice

Disclosure

 

ATAs, How They Work

1) Automated Trading Accounts (ATA’s) what they are and how they work

Currency ATA Performance Homepage Currency ATA Aggressive Homepage

2.1) As our ATA Client you maintain control of

  • The market(s) you trade and when
  • The methodologies you trade
  • The level of leverage that suits your risk tolerance
  • The overall risk for your account

2.2) ATA Team responsibilities include

  • Calculating entries, risk levels and profit objectives
  • Placing all orders and diligently overseeing executions, positions and balance
  • Monitoring total account risk to ensure it is within your defined guidelines
  • Ensuring everything is done correctly and assuming liability if it’s not
  • Answering all your questions on markets and methodologies

2.3) About this ATA

  • This ATA uses fully disclosed trading methodology
  • Trades with the trend long or short
  • Uses option collars that define risk on every trade and duration of every trading period
  • Trades in this ATA cannot be stopped out regardless of market volatility
  • The only way a position can be called away is at a profit
  • If the market stays the same this ATA hasn’t wasted precious investment capital on purchasing option time premium as it’s collecting approximately as much time premium on the covered writes at the profit objectives, as it’s paying out on the purchased options that define maximum trade risk
  • Option collars can be offset at any time locking in gains and/or modified to capture more of the move or, reversed to capture a trend reversal.
  • Mark-to-market positions and balance are available online at any time
  • Statements are emailed daily disclosing positions, liquidating value and any trading activity
  • Monthly statements summarize all activity and end of month balance
  • Liquidity for ATA accounts in portion or all is 2 to 48 hours in any major currency
  • AIM ATA’s afford you the opportunity to modify markets, units you trade and your overall account risk level at any time
  • Currency Quotes and essentials for trading
  • Additional Currency guides, reports and videos
  • Other markets we trade ATA’s on in North America and Europe
  • Contact us with your questions
  • Schedule an online review

3) Structure and Account Opening Procedure

3.1) ATAs, What They Are and How They Work
3.2) ATA Fee Structure
3.3) Defining Overall Risk For Your Account
3.4) How Balances Are Guaranteed Plus or Minus Trading
3.5)
How To Open An Account

If you have questions send a message  or contact me

Regards,
Peter Knight

—————————————————————-

Risk Disclosure

Privacy Notice

Rate Expectations Through 2027

How were trading these  &  ATA Rate Trade Program

Today’s probability for a rate hike at the next Fed meeting
Interest rate 3 month to 30 year curve
Fed Meetings and Press Conferences
Understanding the FOMC Report

1) Market’s priced in expectations for rates

1.1) March 2019 to December 2020 (15 minute)
1.2) March 2019 to December 2020 (30 minute)
1.3) March 2019 to December 2020 (60 minute)
1.4) March 2019 to December 2020 (120 minute)
1.5) March 2019 to December 2020 (Daily)
1.6) March 2019 to December 2020 (Weekly)
1.7) March 2019 to December 2020 (Monthly)

2021 through 2027

1.8) March 2019 to December 2021 (Daily)
1.9) March 2019 to December 2022 (Daily)
1.10) March 2019 to December 2023 (Daily)
1.10) March 2019 to December 2024 (Daily
1.11) March 2019 to December 2025 (Daily)
1.12) March 2019 to December 2026 (Daily
1.13) March 2019 to December 2027 (Daily)

2) Program Structure and Account Opening Procedure

2.1) ATA’s, What They Are and How They Work
2.2) ATA Fee Structure
2.3) Defining Overall Risk For Your Account

2.4) Exchanges Traded
2.5) Brokerage Firms
2.6) How Balances Are Guaranteed Plus or Minus Trading
2.7) How To Open An Account

If you have any questions send a message or contact me

Regards,
Peter Knight Advisor

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Privacy Notice

Disclosure

ATA Analysis Pages
Currencies Indices Metals Interest Rates
Euro-FX S&P 500 Gold 3 Month 
British Pound Nasdaq Silver 30 Day Fed Funds
Japanese Yen Euro Stoxx 50 Platinum 2 Year
Australian Dollar Euro Stoxx E600 Copper 5 Year
Candian Dollar DAX Index Palladium 10 Year
Swiss Franc CAC 40 Energy 30 Year
Euro- Swiss Swiss Market Index Crude WTI 3 EuriBor
USD Index Hang Seng Index Crude Brent 3 Month Sterling
Chinese Renminbi Nikkei Heating Oil Euro Schatz
  ASX 200 Index Gasoline Euro Bobl
  FTSE 100 Natural Gas Euro Bund
      Euro OAT
      Euro Buxl3
3) Structure 

GCNC

Gold  Performance Summary 9 March 2009 through 31 December 2018

Recommended Starting Balance $30,000.00
Cumulative Net Profit
$284,395.61
Maximum Drawdown (39.68%)
($11,904.52)
Best Year 2013 +199.73% $59,917.84
Worst Year 2014 +5.56% $1,667.84
2006-2018 Average +96.41% $28,921.59
2018 +66.84%
$20,051.47

Analysis Page        Educational Resources

This ATA trades with the major trend long or short using fully disclosed trading methodology. It has a realistic risk of $15,000 USD per unit, if you are not in a position to comfortably assume this risk you should not participate in this program.

Performance is based on trading one 30K unit, never adding units and deducting all net profits annually.

Risk Disclosure

Contact me   and I’ll review how to use these links enabling you to track our trades as they occur.

1.1) 20 Year chart using monthly data
1.2) 10 Year Chart, monthly Data
1.3) 3 Year chart, weekly data
1.4) 3 month chart, daily data (GCZ18)
1.5) 10 day chart 60 minute data (GCZ18)
1.6) Today’s using 5 minute data GCZ18)
1.7) Today’s Technical Opinion (GCZ18)
1.8) Ranges & Price Performance (GCZ18)
1.9) Support & Resistance (GCZ18)
1.10) Barchart Quotes, All Deliveries
1.11) Barchart Options Quotes
1.12) CME Futures Quotes, All Deliveries
1.13) CME Option Quotes

1.14) Contract Specifications each 1.00 = $100.00
1.15) Exchange Margin Requirement
1.16) Metals Analysis Page

9) Metals Spreads

9.1) Platinum (PL) – Gold (GC) 20 year using monthly data
9.2) PL–GC last 12 months using daily data
9.3) Understanding Platinum and Gold Spread (Video)

9.4) Gold GC) Silver (SI) Ratio 20 year using monthly data
9.5) GC/SI last 12 months using daily data
9.6) Gold & Silver Ratio Spread (Video)

9.7) Palladium (PA) – Gold (GC) 20 year using monthly data
9.8) PA – GC last 12 months using daily data

9.9) Gold (GC) Copper (HG) Ratio 20 year using monthly data
9.10) GC/HG last 12 months using daily data

10) Gold/USD to Major Currencies,

10.1) Gold (GC) Priced in British Pounds (B6) 20 year
10.2) GC/B6 last 12 months using daily price data

10.3) Gold (GC) Priced in Australian (A6) 20 year
10.4) GC/A6 last 12 months using daily price data

10.5) Gold (GC) Priced in U.S. Dollars DX 20 year
10.6) GC/DX last 12 months using daily price data

10.7) Gold (GC) Priced in Euro Currency (E6) 20 year
10.8) GC/E6 last 12 months using daily price data

10.9) Gold (GC) Priced in Canadian (D6) 20 year
10.10) GC/D6 last 12 months using daily price data

10.11) Gold (GC) Priced in Japanese Yen (J6) 20 year
10.12) GC/J6 last 12 months using daily price data

10.13) Gold (GC) Priced in Swiss Franc (S6) 20 year
10.14) GC/S6 last 12 months using daily price data

11) Gold/USD to Global Stock Indices

11.1) Gold last 20 years
11.2) Gold last 35 years

11.3) S&P to Gold Ratio last 35 years
11.4) S&P 500 (ES) Gold (GC) Ratio 20 year
11.5) ES/GC last 12 months using daily data

11.6) Euro Stoxx 50 (FX) Gold (GC) Ratio 20 year
11.7) FX/GC last 12 months using daily data

11.8) FTSE 100 (X) Gold (GC Ratio) 20 year
11.9) X/GC last 12 months using daily data

11.10) DAX (DY) Gold (GC) Ratio 20 year
11.11) DY/GC last 12 months using daily data

11.9) CAC 40 (MX) Gold (GC) Ratio 20 year using monthly data
11.10) MX/GC last 12 months using daily data

If you have any questions send a message or contact me

Regards,
Peter Knight Advisor

—————————————————————-

Privacy Notice

Risk Disclosure

 

 

 

 

Analysis

1) ATA markets

ATA Analysis Pages
Currencies Indices Metals Interest Rates
Euro-FX S&P 500 Gold 3 Month
British Pound Nasdaq Silver Fed Funds
Japanese Yen Euro Stoxx 50 Platinum 2 Year
Australian Dollar Euro Stoxx E600 Copper 5 Year
Canadian Dollar DAX Index Palladium 10 Year
Swiss Franc CAC 40 Energy 30 Year
Euro- Swiss Swiss Index Crude WTI 3 EuriBor
USD Index Hang Seng Index Crude Brent 3 Month Sterling
Renminbi Nikkei Heating Oil Euro Schatz
ASX 200 Index Gasoline Euro Bobl
FTSE 100 Natural Gas Euro Bund
Euro OAT
Euro Buxl

2) Stocks Indices

2.1) Top Performing US Stock Index Futures, Last 52 Weeks
2.2) US Stock Index Futures Long, Short, Hold Summary
2.3) Top Performing Non US Stock Index Futures, Last 52 Weeks
2.4) Non US Stock Index Futures Long, Short, Hold Summary

3) All Futures Markets

3.1) Top Performing Futures Markets, Last 52 Weeks By Sector
3.2) Futures Long, Short, Hold Summary
3.3) Today’s Price Surprises (Futures)

4) Forex Markets

4.1) Top Performing Forex Markets, Last 52 Weeks
4.2) Forex Long, Short Hold Summary
4.3) Today’s Price Surprises (Forex)

5) Stocks

5.1) Top Performing Stocks, Last 52 Weeks
5.2) Stock Long, Short Hold Summary
5.3) Today’s Price Surprises (Stocks)

6) ETFs

6.1) Top Performing ETFs, Last 52 Weeks
6.2) ETF Long, Short Hold Summary
6.3) Today’s Price Surprises (ETFs)

7) Mutual Funds

6.1) Top Performing Mutual Funds, Last 52 Weeks
6.2) Mutual Funds Long, Short Hold Summary
6.3) Today’s Price Surprises (Mutual Funds)

8) Educational videos & resources

8.1) General information on Futures contracts
8.2) General Information on Options contracts
8.3) Stock Index Futures
8.4) Currency Futures
8.5) Metals Futures
8.6) Energy Futures
8.7) Interest Rate Futures

9) ATA summary & account opening procedure

9.1) ATA’s, What They Are and How They Work
9.2) ATA Program Performance Page
9.3) The ATA Fee Structure
9.4) Defining Overall Risk For Your ATA Account
9.5) How Balances Are Guaranteed Plus or Minus Trading
9.6) How To Open An Account Minimums 12.5K to 500K

If you have any questions send a message or contact me

Regards,
Peter Knight Advisor

—————————————————————-

Privacy Notice

Disclosure

S&PNC

S&P No Collar June 2011 –  31 December 2018

Recommended Starting Balance $35,000.00
Cumulative Net Profit
$260,898.79
Maximum Drawdown (-38.96%)
($13,635.63)
Best Year 2015 +163.16% $57,106.25
Worst Year 2012 +32.46% $11,362.50
2007-2018 Average +98.30% $34,404.24
2018 +135.42% $47,396.79

This ATA trades with the trend long or short using fully disclosed trading methodology. It has a realistic risk of $17,500 USD per unit, if you are not in a position to comfortably assume this risk you should not participate in this program.

Performance is based on trading one 35K unit, never adding units and deducting all net profits annually.

Risk Disclosure

1) S&P Analysis Page

2) Global Stock Index Analysis Homepage

3) Stock Index Educational Page

4) Program Structure and Account Opening Procedure

4.1) (ATA’s), What They Are and How They Work
4.2) The Fee Structure For This Program
4.3) Defining Overall Risk For Your Account
4.4) How Balances Are Guaranteed Plus or Minus Trading
4.5) How To Open An Account

If you have any questions send a message or contact me.

Regards,
Peter Knight

—————————————————————-

Privacy Notice

Risk Disclosure

Long/Short Rates

1) Performance Summary 7 March 2015 – 31 December 2018

Recommended Starting Balance $30,000.00
Cumulative Net Profit
$108,511.39
Maximum Drawdown (47.39%)
($14,218.10)
Best Year 2018 +132.04%
$39,612.69
Worst Year 2016 +59.91%
$17,972.50
2015-2018 Average +94.36%
$28,307.32
2018 +132.04%
$39,612.69

Trading Rate Expectations   Levels    Analysis Page    Educational

This program uses fully disclosed trading methodology to capture rate  expectations up or down. It has a realistic risk of $17,500 USD per unit, if you are not in a position to comfortably assume this risk you should not participate in this program. This ATA also should not be confused with the our long-term position trades, trading rates higher, due to Fed policy changes and market action trading rates only higher has been eliminated from our rate trade line-up,  for more information message me. 

Performance Summary 7 March 2015 – 31 December 2018

Performance is based on trading one 30K unit, never adding units and deducting all net profits annually.

2) Who’s called rate hikes better since 2013 the Market or the Fed?

3) Market rate hike expectations through 2027

4) Interest Rate Futures/Options Educational Videos and Resources

4.1) Futures Educational Videos (33)
4.2) Futures Options Educational Videos (34)

4.3) Eurodollar Interest Rate Futures Contracts
4.4) Eurodollar Futures Pricing And The Forward Rate Market
4.5) How to Trade Eurodollar Spreads
4.6) Fed Fund Futures contracts
4.7)
Understanding IMM Price and Date

4.8) Understanding Eurodollar Strips
4.8) What is the Eurodollar Settlement Process?
4.10) Treasury Futures Contracts
4.11) Calculating U.S. Treasury Pricing
4.12) Treasury Intermarket Spreads – The Yield Curve
4.13) Trading the U.S. Treasury Curve: Two versus Ten
4.14) How Can You Measure Risk in Treasuries?
4.15) Treasuries Hedging and Risk Management
4.16) The Basics of Treasuries Basis
4.17) Treasuries Delivery Process
4.18) The Importance of Basis Point Value (BPV)
4.19) Understanding Packs and Bundles
4.20) Understanding Convexity Bias
4.21) Understanding the FOMC Report
4.22) Get to know Treasuries Cheapest To Deliver (CTD)
4.23) Trading the Link Between USD/JPY and U.S. Treasuries

5) Previous Rate Reports and Articles 2015 – 2018

5.1) June 2018 Update Trading Rates Higher
5.2) US Economy by the numbers 2000 – 2018 4 June 2018
5.3) Trading Rates Higher & Fed Expectations 28 November 2017
5.4) Trading the Fed Funds rate higher 13 March 2017
5.5) Trade update 11 August 2016 through 20 January 2017
5.6) Trading Rates Higher & Fed Expectations 20 January 2017
5.7) Update Seeking Alpha 13 January 2017
5.8) Market Versus Fed For Rates 16 September 2016
5.9) Market Versus Fed Expectations December 2019 4 Sep. 2016
5.10) Update on Seeking Alpha 5 September 2016
5.11) Who’s right the market or the Fed 31 May 2016
5.12) Original positions published on Seeking Alpha 5 Nov. 2015
5.13) Countdown to Higher Rates 9 October 2015
5.14) Trading 3 Month Rates & Fed Expectations 24 Sep. 2015
5.15) What I See On The Horizon 6 August 2015
5.16) Hedging Treasury Risk 3 August 2015
5.17) The Math On Why U.S. Inflation Is “contained” 22 July 2015
5.18) Trading the Fed Funds Rate Higher 23 July 2015
5.19) Trading Rates Higher & Fed Expectations 9 June 2015
5.20) Trading 3 Month Rates & Fed Expectations 27 April 2015
5.21) Trading Rates Higher Using Cost Averaging 24 March 2015
5.22) Market versus Fed expectations 23 March 2015

6) Fed Funds Risk Reward Spreadsheets

6.1) 3 Month Rates Mar., Jun. Dec. Fed Funds Mar. hedge
6.2) Fed Funds December 2016
6.3) Fed Funds March 2016 S 99.74 (no hedge)
6.4) Fed Funds December 2016 S 99.46 (no hedge) 100K
6.5) Fed Funds December 2016 S 99.46 (no hedge) 10K
65.6) Trading 3 month rates higher through December 2016
6.7) July 2015 25k no hedge

6.8) July 2015 99.83 25K cost average hedge
6.9) July 2015 99.82 25K 87.50 hedge
6.10) July 2015 10K 99.81/99.75 hedge
6.11) Sep 2015 25k cost average hedge

6.12) Oct 2015 25K cost average hedge
6.13) Dec 2015 25K cost average hedge

7) 3 Month Deposit Spreadsheets

7.1) 3 Month Dec 2017 S 99.70 (no hedge)
7.2) 3 Month put weighted vol spread Dec 2017
7.3) 3 Month vol spread Dec 2017
7.4) 3 Month vol bear spread no hedge Dec 2017
7.5) 3 Month GEH-M-Z-201616 Fed Funds ZQ-H16 10.05.2015
7.6) Contract specifications
7.7) 3 Month Hedged Cost Average
7.8) 3 Month Rate September 2015 hedge
7.9) 3 Month Rate December 2015 hedge

8) Other Rate Markets I trade

8.1) US Interest rates
8.2) European interest rates
8.3) Australian interest rates
8.4) Educational videos and links

9) Services

9.1) Introduction
9.2) Exchanges Traded
9.3) Brokerage firms
9.4) ATAs is and how they work
9.5) Fee structure
9.6) How to define risk on your account
9.7) How balances are protected
9.8) How to open An Account

If you have any questions send a message or contact me

Regards,
Peter Knight Advisor

—————————————————————-

Privacy Notice

Disclosure

Trading the Range in rates 20181204

If you think trading rates is boring and offers no opportunity for profit or loss think again, the trade I’m reviewing in this report walks you through an interest rate position that recently appreciated from $4,500.00 on the 6th of September 2018 to $10,750.00 by the 8th of October 2018 or +138.89% during this 32 day period.

Current chart

The duration for the chart above is from the 3rd January 2018 to the 3rd December 2018

The price on the chart represents what the market thought the change in rates would be between two delivery months March 2019 and December 2020.

For example, on the 6th of September 2018 the price was 0.1800 what this reflects is the market was pricing in an increase in rates between March 2019 and December 2020 of +0.1800%, each 0.01 = $250.00 giving this position a value of $4,500.00.

By the 8th of October 2018 the market’s perception of what rates would do between March 2019 and December 2020 had changed to +0.4300 position value = $10,750.00

0.1800%, position value $4,500.00 6th of September 2018
0.4300%, position value $10,750.00 8th of October 2018

Appreciation of the position $6,250.00 or 138.89%

What we’re trading to capture this move is the world’s most liquid derivatives contact the total face value of all outstanding positions currently exceeds 17 Trillion US Dollars. To put this into proper the US’s total Federal debt is 21.5 trillion

For more inforation about this contract

3 month rates or Eurodollar deposits, are time deposits denominated in U.S. dollars at banks outside the United States. (There is no connection with the euro currency or the Eurozone).

A Eurodollar futures contact reflect what the market believes 3 months rates will be during the contract delivery month, for example looking at the price of the March 2019 of 97.140 it telling us the market believes the 3 month rate will be 2.860% during March 2019. To calculate the rate the contact price represents take 100.000 – the contract price in this example 97.140 = 2.860 representing a rate of 2.860%

Current Quotes

Now lets do the December 2020 delivery

In this example the market is expecting a change in rate between March 2019 and December 2020 of 0.125% versus the Fed’s expectation for a change in rates disclosed at the last Fed post meeting press conference of 1.00% during the same period.

The type is trade we enter to participate in this move is called a spread.

For more information on spreads

Let’s walk through two example the first establishing a position to profit from an increase in rates the second a decrease in rates.

We both we need to first calculate the rate expectations between delivery months, in this example I’m using March 2019 and December 2020.

97.140 March 2019 (GEH19)
– 97.015 December 2020 (GEZ20)
00.1250 = expected increase Mar 2019 to Dec. 2020

Then pull up your spread chart

Chart

 

To trade rate expectations higher

 

 

3) How to trade rate expectations higher between March 2018 and December 2020, current 0.1450% back to where they were trading 3 weeks ago at 0.35%.

Entry date = 3 December 2018
Entry price = 0.1450
Position value = $3,562.50
Long 10 March 2019 (GEH19) at 97.1300
Short 10 December 2020 (GEZ20) at 96.9850

4) If rate expectations return to 0.3500% where they were trading 9th of November 2018

Objective 0.3500
Position value = $8,750.00
Gross profit = $5,188.00
Margin requirement = $2,300
Recommended deposit $10,000

Gross return per unit = 51.88%

To “blowout” rate hike expectations would have to fall from an increase of +0.1450% to decrease in rate of -21.30%.

Current 1 year chart each 0.01 = +250.00

If you’d like to track other position in the 3 month rate s see this link

If you decide to become our client I’ll share additional strategies in the Global Rate markets with a higher return on risk

5) Rate markets we trade

US Rate Futures Year to Date Price Change
US Rate Futures Long, Short, Hold Summary

International Rate Futures Year to Date Price Change
International Rate Futures Long, Short, Hold Summary

Analysis Pages EMA 9 Chart Long, Short, Neutral
3 Month Chart Opinion
30 Day Fed Funds Chart Opinion
2 Year Chart Opinion
5 Year Chart Opinion
10 Year Chart Opinion
30 Year Chart Opinion
3 EuriBor Chart Opinion
3 Month Sterling Chart Opinion
Euro Schatz Chart Opinion
Euro Bobl Chart Opinion
Euro Bund Chart Opinion
Euro OAT Chart Opinion
Euro Buxl Chart Opinion
US Rate Quotes Euro Rate Quotes Priced In Rate Hikes
Treasury Yields Treasury Calculator All Fed Statements
Rate News, Past Hour Rate News Past 24 Hours Rate News Past Week

Fundamentals

6) How likely is it that the Fed will decrease rates between March 2019 and December 2020?

Since November 2015 the Fed has told us at every Fed meeting they will raise the Fed Funds rate to a minimum 3.25% and as high as 3.75% by December 2020. For confirmation see the Fed’s website

7) Fed Chair Powell told us at the last Fed press conference 26 September 2018

“The US Economy is strong”
“Growth is running at a healthy clip”
“Unemployment is low”
“The number of people working is rising steadily”
“Wages are up ”
“Inflation is low and stable”
“All of these are very good signs”

8) Most importantly he reiterated where the Fed sees rates and when

Current = 2.15%
Dec 2108 = 2.40%
Dec 2019 = 3.40%

9) Fed’s press conference (5:00 minutes, rate expectations 4 minute in)

10) Is 3.40% high by historical standards?

At 3.40% the Fed Funds rate would still be 3.21% below the 1968-2007 per-financial crisis average of 6.61%.

Period Fed Funds 3 Month CPI Rate – CPI
Current 2.15% 2.25% 2.50% -0.25%
1968-07 6.61% 5.96% 4.49% 1.47%
2008-18 0.75% 0.65% 1.83% -1.18%
Pre/Post + – -5.86% 5.31% -2.66% -2.65%

11) Interest Rate Futures/Options Educational Videos and Resources

11.1) Futures Educational Videos (33)
11.2) Futures Options Educational Videos (34)

11.3) Eurodollar Interest Rate Futures Contracts
11.4) Eurodollar Futures Pricing And The Forward Rate Market
11.5) How to Trade Eurodollar Spreads
11.6) Fed Fund Futures contracts
11.7)
Understanding IMM Price and Date

11.8) Understanding Eurodollar Strips
11.9) What is the Eurodollar Settlement Process?
11.10) Treasury Futures Contracts
11.11) Calculating U.S. Treasury Pricing
11.12) Treasury Intermarket Spreads – The Yield Curve
11.13) Trading the U.S. Treasury Curve: Two versus Ten
11.14) How Can You Measure Risk in Treasuries?
11.15) Treasuries Hedging and Risk Management
11.16) The Basics of Treasuries Basis
11.17) Treasuries Delivery Process
11.18) The Importance of Basis Point Value (BPV)
11.19) Understanding Packs and Bundles
11.20) Understanding Convexity Bias
11.21) Understanding the FOMC Report
11.22) Get to know Treasuries Cheapest To Deliver (CTD)
11.23) Trading the Link Between USD/JPY and U.S. Treasuries

12) Fundamentals

Rates have been artificially low far too long. The US now needs raise record amounts of money to continue to finance their reckless deficit spending.

12.1) US Federal Debt
12.2)
US annual budget deficits
12.3)
US debt to tax receipt growth
12.4)
US debt to GDP ratio
12.5)
US debt to personal income ratio

In order to do this the US will have to offer purchasers of their debt a positive
rate of return consistent with, or higher than the historical average of +1.47% above inflation, rather -0.25% below (negative rate of return). This is assuming you believe the official inflation rate , most economists that do not work for the Fed or US Government don’t

1968-2007 historical averages versus post 2008-2018

Period Fed Funds 3 Month CPI Return
Current 2.15% 2.25% 2.50% -0.25%
1968-07 6.61% 5.96% 4.49% 1.47%
2008-18 0.75% 0.65% 1.83% -1.18%
Pre/Post + – -5.86% -5.31% -2.66% 2.65%

13) Services

13.1) Introduction
13.2) Exchanges we trade on
13.3) Brokerage firms
13.4) What an ATA is and how they work
13.5) Fee structure
13.6) How to define overall risk on your account
13.7) How balances are protected
13.8) Open An Account

If you have any questions send a message or contact me

Regards,
Peter Knight Advisor

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