Preparing for tomorrow’s major market moves today


Economic perception versus reality
What I see happening between now and the end of 2026
Tools, markets and contracts for capturing major market moves long or short

2000-2021 EMA ATA performance and allocation studies
2000-2021 VBO ATA performance and allocation studies
40 stocks with clean up trends that appreciated from 880% to 6783% in the last 10 years

Perception

From 1970 to 2020 personal Income, stocks, home prices, precious metals, GDP, Federal revenue all outperformed reported inflation.

1970-2020 average annual reported inflation 4.03%
Average annual growth in personal income 5.51%
Average increase in median home prices 5.25%
Average increase in the S&P 500 8.63%
Average increase in Gold 9.81%
Average increase in Federal revenue per capita 4.99%
Average increase in Federal revenue per employed person 4.53%
Average annual growth in GDP per capita 5.14%
Average annual growth in the GDP per employed person 4.70%

Personal income outperformed inflation by 100.72%

5.51% 1970-2020, average annual growth in personal income
1.48% average annual growth above reported inflation
$29,714 what personal income would be in 2020 if pegged to inflation

$59,642 actual personal income in 2020
$29,928 overall growth in annual personal income above inflation


Sources & Data

Median home prices outperformed inflation by 74.88%

5.25% 1970-2020 average annual appreciation
1.22% average appreciation above inflation
$192,671 what median home prices would be in 2020 if pegged to inflation
$336,950 actual median home price in 2020
$144,279 overall appreciation in median home prices above inflation


S&P 500 outperformed inflation by 432.48%

8.63% 1970-2020 average annual appreciation
4.83% average appreciation above inflation
705.40 what the S&P 500 would be in 2020 if pegged to inflation
3,756.10 actual price for the S&P in 2020
3,050.70 overall appreciation of the S&P 500 above inflation

Sources & Data

Gold outperformed inflation by 462.54%

9.81% 1970-2020 average annual appreciation
5.78% average appreciation above inflation
$315 what the price of gold would be in 2020 if pegged to inflation
$1,772 actual price of gold in 2020
$1,457 overall appreciation of gold above inflation

Sources & Data

Federal revenue per capita outperformed inflation by 44.13%

4.99% 1970-2020 average annual growth in Federal revenue per capita
0.96% average appreciation above inflation
$7,160 what Federal revenue would be per capita if pegged to inflation
$10,320 actual Federal revenue per capita in 2020
4.03% 1970-2021 average annual reported inflation

Federal revenue per employed person by 20.43%

4.53% 1970-2020 average annual growth in Federal revenue per employed person
0.50% average appreciation above inflation
$20,093  what Federal revenue would be per employed person if pegged to inflation
$24,197 actual Federal revenue per employed person in 2020

GDP per capita outperformed inflation by 67.16%

5.14% 1970-2020 average annual growth in GDP per capita
1.11%  average growth above inflation
$38,551 what GDP per capita would be if pegged to inflation
$64,443 actual GDP per capita in 2020

GDP per employed person by 49.33%

4.70% 1970-2020average annual growth in GDP per employed person
0.67%  average growth above inflation
$101,190 what GDP per employed person would be if pegged to inflation
$151,103 actual GDP per employed person in 2020

Sources & Data

In 2021 the U.S. has a higher percentage of the U.S population working and paying taxes than 36 out of the last 52 years.

44.23% of U.S. population is employed in 2021
2.25% from its 52 year high of 46.79% set in 2000
2.16% higher than the 52 year average 42.07%
9.88% higher than the 52 year low of 34.35% set in 1971

Sources & Data

Perception

With these glowing fundamentals  you’d expect quality of life for U.S. citizens to be at or near an all time high, that the Federal Government would be running budget surpluses, paying down debt and working hard towards restoring their fiscal credibility and AAA debt rating.

Reality

From 1970 to 2021 Federal debt increased by 28.16 trillion
Federal debt as a percent of GDP from 35.49% to 125.77%
Federal debt per capita, from $1,879 to $86,025
Federal debt per employed person from $5,365 to $195,836
Federal Spending per employed person, from $2,929 to $53,210
9.1 trillion dollars in Federal Reserve bailouts, 8.2 trillion since 2008
2 debt downgrades caused by record spending and the creation of trillions to fund it.
Borrowing the all monies paid into Social Security by issuing it non marketable debt which helped expedite its projected insolvency date to as early as 2028.
Borrowing all the monies paid into Military and Civilian Employee Trusts by issuing  these trusts non marketable debt which could jeopardize fair retirement income for beneficiaries.
Mismanaging Medicare projected insolvency date to 2026

All in, Government piled up 153.473 trillion in unfunded liabilities

1970-2020 Federal spending per capita outpaced  reported inflation by 228.46%

6.88% average annual growth in Federal spending per capita
2.85% average growth above inflation
$23,406 actual Federal spending per capita in 2020

$7,242 what per capita Federal spending would be in 2020 if pegged to inflation

Federal spending per employed person outpaced  reported inflation by 158.58%

6.49% 1970-2020 average annual growth in Federal spending per employed person
2.46% average growth above inflation
$53,547 actual Federal spending per capita in 2020
$20,705 what per employed person Federal spending would be in 2020 if pegged to inflation


Sources & Data

Average annual Federal spending above reported inflation. 

Per Capita
1970-2007 1.77% 
2008-2019 1.87% 
2008-2020 6.40% 
1970-2020 2.95%

Per employed person
1970-2007 1.04% 
2008-2019 1.89%
2008-2020 7.25% 
1970-2020 2.62%


Sources & Data

In 2020-2021 Federal spending per employed person is equivalent to 87.09% of median personal income


Sources & Data

Increases Debt  to GDP 1900-2021

1900 to 2006, from 10.29% to 35.49%
1970 to 2007, from 35.49% to 61.93%

2008 to 2021 from, 61.93% to 125.77%
1939,  43.30% (end of the Great Depression)
1946, 119.12% (end of World War 2)
High, 2020, 129.19%

1900-1970 Average, 38.97%
1970-2007 Average, 42.17%
2008-2021 Average, 100.53%

Low, 1907 7.19%


Sources & Data

Federal debt per capita


1970-2021 actual increase in Federal debt per capita, $1,879 to $86,025, +4,478.23%
1970-2021 if pegged to reported inflation, $1,879 to $13,206, +602.63%
2008-2021 actual per capita increase in Federal debt, $29,998 to $86,025, +186.77%

2008-2021 if pegged to reported inflation $10,036 to $13,206, +31.58%
2020-2021 actual per capita increase in Federal debt, from $69,392 to $86,025, +23.97%
2020-2021 if pegged to reported inflation $12,374 to $13,206, +6.72%

Federal debt per employed person

1970-2021 actual increase per employed person $5,365 to $195,836, +3,691.59%
1970-2021 if pegged to reported inflation $5,365 to $37,693, +602.63%

2008-2021 actual increase per employed person, $64,871 to $195,836,  +201.89%
2008-2021 if pegged to reported inflation, $28,645 to $37,693, +31.58%

2020-2021 actual increase per employed person. $150,228 to $195,836, +30.36%
2020-2021 if pegged to reported inflation. $35,420 to $37,693, +6.41%

U.S. debt compared to other countries

1970-2020, 28.17 trillion in new Federal debt, this is more than the total debt of the United Kingdom, Italy, France, Germany, Australia, Canada, Mexico, Russia, China, Taiwan and India combined, total population of these countries 3.468 billion, U.S. population 332 million.

Since 2008, 19.60 trillion in new Federal debt, more than the total debt of the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Switzerland, Greece, Turkey, Taiwan, China, Russia, India, Argentina, Mexico and Nigeria combined, total population of these countries 3.587 billion.

Fed Bailouts since 2008 8.26 trillion, more than the total debt of China, population 1.442 billion.

16 months, 5.88 trillion in new Federal debt, 304 billion more than the combined total debt of the United Kingdom and Canada.


Sources & Data

Impact of record deficit spending and the creation of money to pay fund it

2 Federal debt downgrades in 2021 the United States has the worst debt rating in history, 11 countries are now rated higher.

Country/Region Rating Outlook Date
 Canada AAA Stable 2002-07-29
 Denmark AAA Stable 2001-02-27
 Germany AAA Stable 2012-01-13
 Liechtenstein AAA Stable 2016-02-26
 Luxembourg AAA Stable 2013-01-14
 Netherlands AAA Stable 2015-11-20
 Norway AAA Stable 1990-11-08
 Singapore AAA Stable 1995-03-06
 Sweden AAA Stable 2004-02-16
  Switzerland AAA Stable 1989-06-26
 Australia AAA Stable 2020-10-20
 Austria AA+ Stable 2013-01-29
 Finland AA+ Stable 2016-09-16
 Hong Kong AA+ Stable 2017-09-22
 United States AA+ Stable 2013-06-10

Debt to GDP by country


Sources & Data

Federal Reserve bailouts

1913-2007, 890.66 billion 
Formation of the Federal Reserve 1913

1970-2019
last 12 years 3 months
Total new debt Federal 13.719 trillion
Total money created by the Federal Reserve 3.275 trillion

Federal Reserve profits forfeited to the U.S. Treasury 892 billion
Total Federal Reserve bailouts, 4.167 trillion

2020-2021 – last 16 months
Total new federal debt 5.881 trillion
Total money created by the Federal Reserve 4.036 trillion

Federal Reserve profits forfeited to the U.S. Treasury 144 billion
Total Federal Reserve bailouts, 4.180 trillion


Sources & Data

In addition to the bailouts from 1998 to 2020 the Federal Reserve forfeited 1.242 trillion in operating profits to the U.S. Treasury, 142.49 billion more than total Federal debt in 1982.


Sources & Data

Real rates of return and inflation magically disappeared until May of this year?

1970 to 2007 average Treasury rate 8.70% paying 3.99% more than reported inflation
2008 to 2020 average Treasury rate 2.67% paying 0.94% more than reported inflation
2021 average Treasury rate 2.01% paying 3.39% less than reported inflation
Reported inflation over the last 12 months 5.40%
1970 through 2021 average annual inflation 4.03%


Sources & Data

Reported inflation factual or fictional? Comparisons using the BLS inflation calculator

In 1980 total Federal was 863.45 closing in on 1.00 trillion dollars, citizens panicked, gold rallied to $850 an ounce, interest rates spiked above of 15%.

The BLS translates 863.45 billion in 1980 into  3.015 trillion in 2021, 3.015 trillion is 2.865 trillion less than new Federal debt in the last 16 months

Cost of the New Deal 1933-1939

Total cost of the New Deal from 1933 to 1939, 41.70 billion (1939 dollars)
The BLS translates this into 809.27 billion in 2021 dollars .

1939 total cost of the New Deal in gold 1.226 million ounces
Cost of the New Deal in 2021 if pegged to gold 2.207 trillion dollars

What the New Deal did for 809.27 billion BLS 2021 dollars

    • Job training for 8.5 million unskilled men to learn a new professions as they carried out public works infrastructure projects.
    • Built or modernized more than 55,000 civilian and military buildings.
    • Built 32 naval vessels, many played key roles during World War 2.
    • Built 4,026 new schools, the majority are still open today.
    • Built 130 new hospitals, including Fitzsimons , Allegheny General & Jersey City
    • 29,000 new bridges & tunnels including Lincoln,Throgs Neck and Golden Gate.
    • Scores of Dams including Hover & Shasta, the majority still produce power today
    • Built or modernized over 180,000 miles of highways including the Los Angeles Freeway, the Overseas Highway(107 miles) connecting Key West to the mainland
    • Built or modernized more than 150 airports including La Guardia and Midway.
    • Built or modernized nearly 9,000 miles of storm drains and sewer lines.

New Deal Programs provided more than Infrastructure.

    • The laborers of the New Deal programs worked in schools serving more than 900 million hot lunches to hungry children during the depression.
    • Operated 1,500 nurseries enabling childcare so parents could work.
    • Funded over 225,000 concerts and thousands of plays.
    • New Deal cultural programs produced more than half a million works of art including Jackson Pollock’s 17A which sold for 200 million in 2016.
    • The New Deal Writers’ program featured works from soon-to-be famous Authors like John Steinbeck, Steinbeck went on to win the Pulitzer Prize in 1940 for his novel The Grapes of Wrath.

Either President Roosevelt really knew how to stretch a buck in the 1930’s or BLS.GOV inflation is fictional.

Fiscal cost of World War 2 

Total U.S. fiscal cost 291.18 billion in 1946 dollars.
The  BLS.GOV translates this into 4.347 trillion in 2021 dollars

4.347 trillion is 59.59% of what the Federal Government spent in 2020,
97.35% of what the Federal Government spent in 2019.

The U.S.’s fiscal cost of World War 2 in gold, 131.662 million ounces
Cost of the WW 2 if pegged to gold 15.088 trillion 2021 dollars

Spending and new debt during  last “crisis” and “recovery”, 2008-2019

47.689 trillion total Federal Spending (all in)
5,892.84% the total cost of New Deal
1,097.06% the total fiscal cost of World War 2

13.718 trillion total New Federal Debt
1,695.11% the total cost of the New Deal
315.57% the total fiscal cost of World War 2


Data & Sources

Spending and new debt during the Covid crisis 2020-2021

11,312 trillion in Federal Spending (all in)
5.88 trillion in New Federal Debt
5.156 trillion combined BLS cost of the New Deal and World War 2 in 2021
Data on pre Covid causes of death & Covid causes of death

Annual Federal Revenue is now a mere 11.16% of total Federal debt,

1970 50.62%
1980 58.89%
1990 32.19%
2000 35.98%
2007 28.69%
2021 11.16%

Sources & Data

Impact

An 11.16% annual revenue to total debt ratio makes it impossible for the U.S. to accurately report inflation, normalize interest rates or increases in any Federal expense that’s pegged to reported inflation such as Social Security, Medicare, Military or Civilian employee pensions.

If Treasury rates normalized to the 1970 – 2008 average of 8.70%, 68% of all Federal revenue would be consumed by debt service cost alone.

Accurate increases in Medicare would push it’s insolvency date closer than the projected 2026, Social Security before the projected 2028 to 2035.

Under reporting inflation contains the majority of all Federal costs

From 2008 to 2021 Federal debt increased by 200.00% yet annual debt service cost increased by only 30.91%.

Total Federal debt in 2007 8.950 trillion, annual debt service cost 411.32 billion
Total Federal debt in 2020 26.880 trillion, annual debt service cost 538.45 billion


Sources & Data

How the U.S. reports budget deficits, the poverty rate and the homeless rate and further eroded U.S. fiscal credibility.

1970-2020 cumulative reported budget deficits $17.857 trillion, cumulative increase in Federal debt $26,515 trillion. According to U.S. politicians the 8.658 trillion doesn’t count because they’re mandatory expenses and they don’t vote on them.


Sources & Data

Difference between reported deficits and increase in total Federal debt

1970 to 2007 4.021 trillion,
2008 to 2020 4.637 trillion.

U.S poverty rate

The Federal Government has contained the official poverty rate and all subsides linked to the poverty rate by lowering what the poverty rate is.

In 1970 your income needed to be less than 49.60% of median personal income to be below the poverty threshold and qualify for government assistance.
In 2020 your income needed to be less than 21.70% of median personal income to be below the poverty threshold and qualify for government assistance.


Sources & Data

Homeless rate

By redefining who’s homeless the Department of Housing and Urban development has reduced the official homeless rate by 173,691 people since 2005.

Sources & Data

In 2021 Federal Debt as a percentage of GDP is the worst in history


Sources & Data

Regulation, taxation and litigation have destroyed U.S. manufacturing and eliminated over 20 million jobs.


Sources & Data

The resulting trade deficits have eliminated 13.95 trillion in domestic wealth, 7.652 trillion since 2008.


Supporting Links & Data

Foreign held Treasury debt now impedes the U.S.’s ability to negotiate fair trade

If the 7.012 trillion in foreign held Treasury debt hits the market for any reason it will create an unprecedented financial crisis, unprecedented dollar sales by foreign investors and additional dollar devaluation fueled by the Federal Reserve’s creation of trillions of dollars trying to support the Treasury market and dollar, hyper inflation will engage.

Sources & Data

In 2020 and 2021 the Federal Reserve is the largest buyer of new Treasury debt using money they create from and backed by nothing, without this massive ongoing multi trillion dollar intervention the Federal government would be insolvent.

The creation of  over 8 trillion dollars makes it impossible for the dollar to maintain it’s long-term value against quality stocks or tangible assets, It also moves closer the sale of 7.012 trillion in foreign owned Treasury debt.

2020-2021 last 16 months
Increase in Federal debt 5.881 trillion
Federal debt purchased by the Federal Reserve 2.764 trillion
Domestically purchased Federal debt 2.694 trillion
Debt purchased by foreign investors 311.5 billion
Non marketable debt  held by Federal agencies & Trusts 111.8 billion

1970-2019 previous 50 years
Increase in Federal debt 22.289 trillion
Federal debt purchased by the Federal Reserve 2.637 trillion
Domestically purchased Federal debt 7.301 trillion 
Debt purchased by foreign investors 6.716 trillion
Non marketable debt  held by Federal agencies & Trusts 6.01 trillion


Sources & Data

Percent ownership of total Federal Debt

2020
Domestic, publicly held Federal debt 35.01%

Federal debt held by foreign investors 24.62%
Non marketable Federal debt held by Federal Agencies & Trusts 21.46%
Federal debt held by the Federal Reserve 18.92%

1970
Domestic publicly held Federal debt 79.58%
Federal debt held by foreign investors 4.12%
Non marketable Federal debt held by Federal Agencies & Trusts 0.00%
Held by the Federal Reserve 16.30%


Sources & Data

Economy in gold

Growth of personal income in ounces of gold 1981-2021

From 24.67 to 33.66 ounces, +8.99 ounces of gold, +36.46%
Personal income dollars +426.59% from $11,326 to $59,642, +$48,316,

2020 33.46 ounces
1981 24.67 ounces
1981-2021 annual average 55.33 ounces
High 2001 117.29 ounces
Low 1981 24.67 ounces


Sources & Data

Increase in Median home price in gold

From 183.32 to 185.67 ounces, +2.24 ounces of gold, +1.28%
In US dollars +388.69% from $68,950 to $336,950, +$268,000,

2020 185.67 ounces
1981 183.32 ounces
1981-2021 average 312.01 ounces

High 2000 617.83 ounces
Low 2011 134.10 ounces


Sources & Data

Increase in the value of an S&P 500 futures contract in gold

From 14.78 to 121.47ounces, +106.69 ounces of gold, +721.69%
In US dollars +3,147.64%, from $6,788 to $220,450 +$213,662,

2020 185.67 ounces

1981 183.32 ounces
1981-2021 average 312.01 ounces

High 2000 617.83 ounces
Low 2011 134.10 ounces

Sources & Data

Increase in GDP per employed person in gold

From 78.27 to 85.28 ounces, +5.23 ounces of gold, +8.96%
GDP in dollars +320.45% from $35,937.56 to $151.102.75, +$115,165.18.

2020 85.28 ounces
1981 78.27 ounces
1981-2020 average 153.27 ounces
High 2001 297.62 ounces
Low 2012 73.07 ounces

Per capita

From 31.14 to 36.37 ounces, +5.23 ounces of gold, +16.80%
GDP in dollars +350.72% increased from $14,297.62 to $64,443.08 +$50,145.46


2020 36.37 ounces
1981 31.14 ounces
1981-2020 average 67.64
High 2001 137.94 ounces
Low 2011 31.14 ounces

Sources & Data

Federal revenue per employed person in gold

Decreased from 14.74 to 13.66 ounces, -1.08 ounces of gold, -7.34%  
Increased in dollars +257.58 from $6,766.66 to $24,196.85, +$17,429.94,

2020 13.66 ounces
1981 14.74 ounces
1981-2020 average 27.13 ounces
High 1999 56.20 ounces
Low 2011 11.81 ounces

Per capita

Decreased from 5.86 to 5.82 ounces, -0.04 ounces of gold, -0.67%  
Increase in dollars +283.32% from $2,692.19 to $10,319.60, +7,627.14,

2020 5.82 ounces
1981 5.86 ounces
1981-2020 average 11.98
High 1999 26.03 ounces
Low 2011 5.00 ounces


Sources & Data

Federal spending per employed person in gold

From 16.34 to 30.28 ounces, +13.93 ounces of gold +85.26%
Federal spending in dollars +614.91%, from $7,504 to $53,647, +46,143,

2020 30.28 ounces
1981 16.34 ounces
1981-2020 average 32.86
High 2001 59.53 ounces
Low 1981 16.34 ounces

Per capita

Increased from 6.50 to 13.06 ounces, +6.56 ounces gold +100.86%
Increase in dollars +675.08%, from $2,985 to $23,140, +20,154,

2020 13.06 ounces
1981 6.50 ounces
1981-2021 average 14.48
High 2001 27.59 ounces
Low 1981 6.50 ounces

Sources & Data

Federal debt in gold per employed person in gold

Increased from 23.73 to 106.65 ounces, +82.92 ounces of gold, +349.38%  
Increase in dollars +1,634.08% from $10,897 to $188,966, +178,069,

2020 106.65 ounces
1981 23.73 ounces
1981-2020 average 97.51
High 2001 161.09 ounces
Low 1981 23.73 ounces

Per capita

Increased from 9.44 to 46.00 ounces, +36.56 ounces of gold, +387.20% 
Increase in dollars +1,780.03% from $4,335 to $81,507, +77,172,

2020 46.00 ounces

1981 9.44 ounces
1981-2020 average 43.17
High 2001 74.66 ounces
Low 1981 9.44 ounces


Sources & Data

What could clean up this mess up

Fiscally responsible politicians on both sides of the isle
Giving up on trying to spend out of every crisis, 28.5 trillion in debt proves it doesn’t work
Balanced Federal budgets and paying down debt to minimize damage to future generations

Had effective regulations rather than,, regulations that foment litigation
Brought companies back to the US by hiking Tariffs rather than Taxes
Ran trade surpluses rather than trade deficits,
Transparency in Federal revenue and expenditures that’s easy to understand and follow
Citizens joining Patrick Henry’s united we stand divided we fall party rather than being pawns of Julius Caesar’s divide and conquer.
Had a government that was afraid of voters rather than voters being afraid of government

What’s more likely to happen

Same scenario as I wrote about back in 2015 in this Seeking Alpha article but far worse. 

Annual Federal Revenue has fallen from 17.94% in 2015 to a 11.16% of total Federal debt in 2021, the Federal government in 2021 can’t afford to raise interest rates high enough to attract enough buyers to finance it’s deficit spending.


Sources & Data

For the U.S to remain solvent the Federal Reserve has to continue creating trillions of dollars with keypunch entries to buy all the debt the free market won’t if they don’t rates will spike higher.

We see total Fed created money increasing from 8.24 to 13.53 trillion by the end of 2026
Treasury debt owned by the Fed increasing from 5.30 to 8.66 trillion
Other debt owned from increasing from 2.898 to 4.689 trillion


Sources & Data

Record spending + the creation of money to fund it = inflation

Our estimate puts average annual BLS reported inflation above 4.00% through 2026.
Actual annual inflation averaging more than 5.25%.
Shadow Stats puts the average above 7.50%.


Sources & Data

Dollar devaluation and negative rates of return are here to stay. 

Rates 20 July 2021

3 month Treasuries 0.04%, 5.36% below reported inflation
2 Year Treasuries 0.20%, 5.20% below reported inflation
5 Year Treasuries 0.84%, 4.56%% below reported inflation
10 Year Treasuries 1.52%, 3.88% below reported inflation
30 Year Treasuries 2.16%, 3.24% below reported inflation
30 day Fed Funds averaging 0.09%
Prime Lending Rate averaging 3.25%

Rates will move higher but not high enough to attract enough buyers to end the Fed’s creation of money
, when the pain gets to great for the Federal budget they’ll lower them again during the next “crisis”, in the short term I’ll be trading them higher, same as last time, for more information see my 2015 seeking alpha article

Our estimates for rates through 2026,

3 month Treasuries as low as 0.14%, 3.90% below reported inflation
2 Year Treasuries as low as 0.55%, 3.49% below reported inflation
5 Year Treasuries as low as 1.09%, 2.95% below reported inflation
10 Year Treasuries as low 1.58%, 2.46% below reported inflation
30 Year Treasuries as low as 2.51%, 1,53% below reported inflation
30 day Fed Funds averaging 1.31%
Prime Lending Rate averaging 4.22%

These estimates assume the Federal Reserve continues creating trillions to buy any new debt the free won’t, if they stop rates will move above 7.50%. 


Sources & Data

    • Inflation and debt monetization have already engaged
    • Record deficits and the Fed’s creation of money will continue to fuel inflation higher
    • Rates will creep higher but not high enough to attract enough buyers to turn off the Federal Reserve’s printing press.
    • Real rates of return aren’t going to happen they’re nothing more than a footnote in history
    • .U.S’ debt will be downgraded 1 to 3 times before the end of 2029
    • Sales of over 7 trillion in Foreign foreign owned debt and dollars will engage
    • The Fed will create trillions more trying to support the U.S. debt market and dollar
    • Inflation will escalate
    • Desperate for income politicians will pass increases in income, corporate and long-term capital gains taxes forcing more corporations and citizens offshore
    • Proceeds from stock sales may go into Federal debt short-term but, just until these dollars  find new homes in tangible assets, global stocks, higher rated debt.
    • Mortgage delinquency rates will increase from 2.75% to more than 5.00%
    • Federal Reserve ownership of mortgage backed securities will increase from 2.422 trillion to over 4 trillion
    • A temporary selloff in real estate will be caused by higher rates, higher taxes, higher inflation, decreasing affordability, decreasing discretionary income with a recovery to new high fueled by dollar devaluation. 

Track what the Fed chair’ trusts are in,coincidentally the Fed always seems to support these markets, the chair’s allocations are in,  to track their allocation see their OGE 278e disclosures.

Long-term position trade account

40 stocks with clean 10 year trends that I’d rather have my portfolio in than U.S. debt, all have performed well over the last decade.

Name & linked 10 Year 9-18 EMA Chart July 2011 Last 10Y %Chg
Monolithic Power Sys MPWR $15.28 $448.79 2937.11%
Repligen Cp RGEN $3.62 $245.57 6783.70%
Heska Corp HSKA $9.68 $242.34 2503.51%
Domino’s Pizza Inc DPZ $25.25 $528.08 2091.41%
Tyler Technologies TYL $26.83 $495.51 1846.85%
Adobe Systems Inc ADBE $31.33 $620.79 1981.46%
Amazon.com Inc AMZN $205.55 $3,353.58 1631.52%
Fair Isaac and Company FICO $30.29 $526.79 1739.15%
Idexx Laboratories IDXX $38.71 $679.46 1755.26%
West Pharmaceutical WST $21.86 $411.16 1880.88%
MSCI Inc MSCI $37.82 $600.65 1588.18%
Costar Group Inc CSGP $5.94 $88.29 1486.36%
Cadence Design Sys CDNS $10.57 $147.46 1395.08%
Charter Communicatio CHTR $54.01 $739.32 1368.86%
Adv Micro Devices AMD $6.99 $106.38 1521.89%
Zebra Technologies ZBRA $42.22 $551.77 1306.89%
Mastercard Inc MA $30.05 $385.61 1283.23%
Copart Inc CPRT $11.68 $146.85 1257.28%
Visa Inc V $21.03 $246.48 1172.04%
Apple Inc AAPL $12.00 $146.13 1217.75%
Cintas Corp CTAS $33.08 $393.62 1189.90%
Microsoft Corp MSFT $25.93 $284.09 1095.60%
Synopsys IncSNPS $25.78 $287.75 1116.18%
Casella Waste Sys CWST $6.12 $68.14 1113.40%
Moody’s Corp MCO $38.37 $376.51 981.26%
Alphabet Cl A GOOGL $253.37 $2,688.24 1060.99%
Sherwin-Williams Company SHW $28.04 $290.68 1036.66%
Intuit Inc INTU $51.97 $522.91 1006.18%
Fortinet Inc FTNT $27.13 $271.66 1001.33%
Descartes Sys Group DSGX $7.18 $72.69 1012.40%
Charles River Laboratories CRL $40.69 $408.84 1004.77%
S&P Global Inc SPGI $41.97 $428.49 1020.94%
Molina Healthcare Inc MOH $27.17 $272.34 1002.36%
Icon Plc ICLR $23.60 $243.70 1032.63%
O’Reilly Automotive ORLY $65.61 $604.93 922.01%
Masimo Corp MASI $29.79 $274.10 920.11%
Home Depot HD $36.29 $327.64 902.84%
SBA Communications SBAC $38.32 $340.79 889.33%
Mettler-Toledo Int. MTD $169.29 $1,490.57 880.48%
Spreadsheet with links to 9/18 EMA 6 month daily, 5 year weekly & 10 year monthly charts

Capturing major market moves long or short

For my trading accounts I trade with the trend long or short, properly capitalized and maintain absolute discipline.

Exponential moving averages (EMAs) one very simple solution for trend identification and a great place to start,

It’s this simple, red line (9 day EMA) above the blue line (18 day EMA) trade long, red below blue trade short.

Using nothing but the 9 day and 18 day EMA generated these results since 2000

Drop in EMAs

You can experiment with any combination of the these EMAs using these instructions

Top EMA allocations are on this page

Creating you own EMA allocation on this page

Instructions for tracking your own EMA allocation this page

 It’s going to be a exciting decade to trade packed with beautiful trends contact me with any questions.

Peter Knight Advisor
Direct Phone Virgin Islands +340 244 4310
Skype: Peter-Knight-Advisor
Message me
Schedule an online review
Peter_Knight@peterknightadvisor.com

 


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IP 20190326


Summary Page & Demo
Peter-Knight-Advisor@outlook.com
Test123

1) The Market’s expected increase or decrease in rates between June 2018 and December 2022

Spread value = market’s expected rate change between delivery dates
Spread values are on the right of the chart

3.1)   June 2019 to December 2022 priced in change (3 day, 15 minute)
3.2)   June 2019 to December 2022 (10 day, 30 minute)
3.3)   June 2019 to December 2022 (10 day, 60 minute)
3.4)   June 2019 to December 2022 (20 day, 60 minute)
3.5)   June 2019 to December 2022 (10 day, 120 minute)
3.6)   June 2019 to December 2022 (1 month, 120 minute)
3.7)   June 2019 to December 2022 (6 month, daily)
3.8)   June 2019 to December 2022 (3 year, weekly)
3.9)   June 2019 to December 2022 (5 year, monthly)
3.10) June 2019 opinion
3.11) December 2022 opinion

Post Fed meeting profit or loss on closed out trades = +$6,642.55

1 May position
Long GEZ20 97.8300
Short 5 GEZ22 97.6300

1 May offset 
Long 5 GEM19 offset = -$194.30

29 April open position
Long 5 GEM19 99.4450
Short 5 GEZ22 97.6300
Using the 120.50

29 April
Long 10 GEZ20 at 97.4000 offset at 97.8150 = +$1,486.50
Short 5 GEM19 at 97.4350 offset at 97.4450 = -$-444.25
Using the 120

23 April
-0.3450 long liquidated at -0.3050 = +$611.50
New position
Short 5 GEM19 97.4350
Long 10 GEZ20 97.7400
Short 5 GEM22 97.6300
Using the 120.

12 April 2019
-0.3350 Reverse to long, offset at -0.3450 = -$638.50
Net new long -.3450
Using the 120

9 April 2019
-0.3250 long liquidated at -0.3350 = -$638.50
Net new short -0.3350
Using the 120

8 April 2019
The -0.3500 Reverse to long, offset at -0.3250 = -$1,013.50
Net new long -.3250
Using the 120

8 April 2019 Reverse to short at -0.3500 (using the 120 )
The 0.4750 long offset at -0.3500 = +$2,736.80
Net new short -0.3750
Using the 120

28 March 2019 Reverse to long
The -27 short was offset at -0.4750, +$4,736.80 net. (using the 120 )
Long at -0.4750
Using the 120

20 March 2019 (Fed Meeting)
The program reversed to short at -.2700, (same as your exit)
Short at 0.2700
Using the 120

2) Cash Currency Analysis Pages

Link Analysis Page 120 Chart Daily Chart Buy-Sell-Hold
2.1 AUDCAD 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.2 AUDCHF 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.3 AUDJPY 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.4 AUDNZD 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.5 AUDUSD 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.6 CADCHF 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.7 CHFJPY 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.8 CHFUSD 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.9 EURAUD 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.10 EURCAD 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.11 EURCHF 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.12 EURCZK 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.13 EURDKK 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.14 EURGBP 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.15 EURHKD 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.16 EURHUF 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.17 EURMXN 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.18 EURNOK 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.19 EURNZD 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.20 EURPLN 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.21 EURSEK 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.22 EURSGD 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.23 EURTRY 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.24 EURUSD 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.25 EURZAR 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.26 GBPAUD 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.27 GBPCAD 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.28 GBPCHF 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.29 GBPDKK 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.30 GBPHKD 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.31 GBPNOK 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.32 GBPNZD 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.33 GBPSEK 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.34 GBPSGD 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.35 GBPUSD 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.36 GBPZAR 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.37 NOKJPY 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.38 NOKSEK 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.39 NZDCAD 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.40 NZDCHF 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.41 NZDJPY 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.42 NZDUSD 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.43 USDBRL 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.44 USDCAD 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.45 USDCHF 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.46 USDCNH 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.47 USDCLP 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.48 USDCNY 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.49 USDCOP 120 Chart Chart Opinion
3.50 USDCZK 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.51 USDDKK 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.52 USDHKD 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.53 USD-IDX 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.54 USDIDR 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.55 USDILS 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.56 USDINR 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.57 USDJPY 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.58 JPYUSD 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.59 USDKRW 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.60 USDMXN 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.61 USDNOK 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.62 USDPHP 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.63 USDPLN 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.64 USDRUB 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.65 USDSEK 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.66 USDSGD 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.67 USDTRY 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.68 USDTWD 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.69 USDZAR 120 Chart Chart Opinion
2.70 XAUEUR 120 Chart Chart Opinion

3) Crypto Currency

Link Analysis Page 120 Chart Daily Chart Buy-Sell-Hold
3.1 BTCUSD CFD 120 Chart Chart Opinion

If you have any questions send a message or contact me

Regards,
Peter Knight Advisor

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Account Opening Instructions

Please complete this form or email with this information

Country of citizenship
Type of account you’d like to open,
Markets & programs you’d like to trade
Initial deposit and risk tolerance
Any special instructions and/or limitations.

My team will match your criteria to a brokerage firm on this list and forward the necessary account opening links.

Documents all firms will require

Government Identification
Prof of address (bank statement or a utility bill)
If a corporation or trust, documents showing ownership, address and identification for the principles.

Depending on citizenship and structure accounts take 8 to 72 hours to open

Links for online reviews

Exchanges traded
Brokerage firms
How balances are guaranteed plus of minus trading activity

ATA’s what they are and how they work
Top Perfromaing ATA’s

Create Your Own Allocation
Defining overall risk for your account

Our fee structures and an example of how it works
AIM Advisory & Risk Control Agreement
Hedge Funds & Commodity Trading Advisors

Accounts can be funded/maintained in any major currency
Ask us about our currency hedge program to protect your valuation in your home currency
Account liquidity in portion or all, 2 to 48 hours in any major currency.

Peter Knight Advisor
Direct VI Phone +340 244 4310
Skype: Peter-Knight-Advisor
Message me
Schedule an online review
Email Peter_Knight@peterknightadvisor.com

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