Debt 20200602

Perception 1970 though 2021

Personal Income, GDP, Federal Revenue, stocks, home prices and precious metals all have outperformed reported inflation.

2021 has a higher percentage of Americas working than 42 out of the last 52 years

45.19% Percentage of U.S. population is Employed in 2021
1.60% from the 52 year high of 46.79% set in 2000
3.10% higher than the 52 year average of 42.09%
10.84% higher than the 52 year low of 34.35% set in 1971

Data Spreadsheet & Sources

Overall growth in GDP per capita 67.16% more than reported inflation

5.14% 1970-2020 average annual growth GDP per capita
1.11%  Average appreciation above inflation
$38,551 Is what GDP per capita would be if pegged to inflation
$64,443 Actual GDP per capita in 2020

Overall growth in GDP per employed person 49.33% more than inflation

4.70% 1970-2020 average annual growth GDP per employed person
0.67%  Average appreciation above inflation
$101,190 what GDP per employed person would be if pegged to inflation
$151,103 Actual GDP per employed person in 2020

Data Spreadsheet & Sources

Data Spreadsheets & Sources

Overall appreciation of gold 462.54% more than reported inflation

How can Personal Income, GDP, Federal Revenue, stocks, home prices and precious metals all outperform reported inflation.

And the U.S. ends up with this mess?

26.5 trillion in new Federal debt
9.163 trillion in Federal Reserve bailouts to keep the U.S. solvent
7.922 of the 9.163 trillion of bailouts funded with Fed created money
1.241 of the 9.163 trillion in bailouts funded by forfeited Fed operating profits
148.084 trillion in unfunded liabilities
2 debt downgrades with at least one more on deck
Artificially low interest rates that have stripped savers of trillions

And inflation magically disappears and real rates of return go below zero?

8.70% average Treasury rate, 1970 – 2007, 3.99% more than reported inflation
2.67% Average Treasury rate since 2008, 0.94% more than reported inflation
2.01% average treasury rate in 2021 2.19% less than inflation

Data Spreadsheet & Sources

Reported inflation is fictional or everything wouldn’t be out pacing reported inflation.

Average reported Inflation 4.03%
Per capita annual growth in Federal revenue 4.99%
Per capita average annual growth in Federal spending 6.82%
Per employed person average annual growth in Federal revenue 4.53%
Per employed person annual growth in Federal spending 6.51%
Per employed person revenue in 2020 $24,196
Per employed person Federal spending in 2020 $53,647

$53,647 in Federal spending per employed person in 2020 was equivalent to 89.95% of Average U.S. Personal Income in 2020 of $59,642.

Data Spreadsheet & Sources

To appreciate how absurd BLS  reported inflation has become compare the actual fiscal cost of the New Deal and and World War 2 to what the BLS tells us they would cost today.

New Deal

Total cost of the New Deal from 1933 to 1936 dollars was 41.70 billion , according this BLS inflation calculator this translates into 836.77 billion in 2021 dollars or 10.96% of what the Federal government spent 2020, 

BLS inflation calculation magic also tells us the total cost of of Roosevelt’s new deal in 2021 dollars is equivalent to 4.67% of the increase in Federal Debt from 2008 through 2020, that this 17.930 trillion could had fully funded the New Deal 21 times over.

During the New Deal from 1933-1939 Federal debt per capita increased by $129.00 from $179.14 dollars to $308. The BLS translates this to an increase of $2,588.48 in 2021 dollars, from $3,595 to $6,183.

In the last 16 months Federal per capita debt increased by $16,831

What the New Deal did & funded.

• • Jobs for a total of  8.5 million Americans, 6.39% of the population.
  • The majority of the jobs trained unskilled men to learn a new profession as they carried out public works infrastructure projects.
  • Built or modernized more than 55,000 civilian and military buildings
  • Built 32 navel vessels, many played key roles during World War 2.
  • 4,026 new schools, the majority are still open today
  • 130 new hospitals, including Fitzsimons , Allegheny General & Jersey City Medical Center.
  • More than 29,000 new bridges and tunnels including the Lincoln Tunnel, Throgs Neck and Golden Gate bridges.
  • Scores of Dams including Hover and Shasta, the majority still produce Hydro Electric Power today.
  • Built or modernized over 180,000 miles of Highway, including the Los Angeles Freeway and Overseas Highway.
  • Built or modernized more than 150 airports including La Guardia and Midway.
  • Built or modernized nearly 9,000 miles of storm drains and sewer lines.

New Deal Programs provided more than Infrastructure

• • The laborers of the New Deal programs worked in schools serving more than 900 million hot lunches to hungry children during the depression.
  • Operated 1,500 nurseries enabling childcare so parents could work.
  • Funded over 225,000 concerts and thousands of plays.
  • The New Deal cultural programs produced more than half a million works of art including  Jackson Pollock’s 17A which sold for 200 million in 2016.
  • The New Deal Writers’ Program featured pieces from soon-to-be famous Authors like John Steinbeck, Steinbeck went on to win the Pulitzer Prize in 1940 for his novel The Grapes of Wrath.

Compare Roosevelt’s New Deal did for the United States from 1933 to 1939 versus what politicians (on both sides) have done with the trillions they’ve already spent. Where are the new hydro electric dams, new schools, hospitals, roads, bridges, tunnels, high speed trains, training and jobs for the unemployed, detox programs and homes for the homeless?

Fiscal Cost of World War 2 to what the BLS tells us it would cost today.

61 countries participated in World War 2 to protect the world from Hitler’s Socialist agenda, Mussolini’s Fascist and Hirohito’s aristocratic oligarchy.

The U.S.’s participation from 1941 to 1945 had a total fiscal cost of 291.18 billion dollars.The BLS.GOV tells us 291.18 billion in 1942 translates into 4,912.54 billion today or 64.37% of what the Federal Government spent in 2020.

From 1941 through 1945 Federal debt per capita went up by $1,455.72, from $383.61 to $1,839.33, BLS translates this into 2021 dollars to up $24,876.56 from $6,555.45 to $31,432.01.

Since 2017 U.S. Federal debt per capita has increased by $25,389.99.

BLS tells us the combined fiscal cost of the New deal and World War 2 would be 5.749 trillion in 2021 dollars equivalent to 75.34% of what the Federal Government spent last year.

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Start here ended 2020602

Why would the U.S. misrepresent inflation?

Record deficit spending and the creation of money to finance it has reduced annual Federal revenue a to a mere 11.16% of total Federal Debt.

Data Spreadsheet & Sources

This 11.16% ratio makes it impossible for the U.S. to accurately report inflation, normalize interest rates or any Federal expense whose increase is pegged to reported inflation such as Social Security, Medicare, Military or Civilian employee pensions and public assistance programs like welfare which the Federal Governments funds and the States administer.

 

 

Federal spending from 1970 through 2007 outpaced annual Federal revenue by XXX

New Federal debt 1970 through 2007 grew from X to Y per capita and x per y per employed person

From 1970 though 2007 the Fed created a net total of X for Corporate and Treasury bailouts

By 1990 Investment banks like Bear Stearns, American International Group, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America were discovering the profitability of Mortgage Backed Securities by 200 they were raising trillions and funneling it to lenders, as the market became saturated borrowing qualifications disappeared, by 2007 nearly anyone with a pulse could qualify for up to a $650,000 mortgage.

Total mortgage debt in the United States went from 3.790 trillion in 1990 to 6.767 trillion in 2000, by 2007 14,964 trillion, up 10.904 trillion +287.69%.

Data Spreadsheet & Sources

2000
Mortgage debt 496.38% of annual personal income
Mortgage delinquency rates 2.23%

2007
Mortgage debt 803.39% of annual personal income
Mortgage delinquency rates 3.10%

During 2007 & 2008 home prices declined from x to Y

2008
Mortgage debt 781.31% of annual personal income
Mortgage delinquency rates soar to 6.57%

with a delinquency rate of 2.23% in 2000 to 803.39% with a delinquency rate by 2007 delinquency rate moved to

Data Spreadsheet & Sources

 

 

From 200 though 2010 the Fed created a net total of X for Corporate and Treasury bailouts

Federal spending from January 2019 through May 2020 outpaced annual Federal by XXX

New Federal debt from January 2019 through May 2020 grew from X to Y per capita and per employed person. to YY

From January 2019 through May 2020 the Fed created a net total of X for Corporate and Treasury bailouts

 

 

 

 

revenue, in 2020 – 2021 it’s running at 219.23% of total Federal Revenue.

 

 

Dollar devaluation this is what’s pushed assets and personal income higher, it certainly hasn’t been the glowing economic fundamentals or fiscal restraint of the 21st century.

The dollar’s decline hasn’t been against currencies of other countries just as addicted to spending and debt as the U.S. but quality stocks, precious metals, real estate and nearly every tangible asset.