KEYS Keysight Technologies Inc Comm

1) Simplified Trend Qualification Procedure, quotes and charts are updated every 10 minutes

1.1) Pick a time frame to work with from 15 minutes to monthly using any chart linked in 2.2 though 2.12. (the shorter the time frame the shorter the trade duration)

1.2) Qualify the trend using the EMA9 (red line), if price action is above the EMA9 (red line) you’re in an up-trend, below the EMA9 a down-trend.

1.3) Confirm the EMA9 defined trend (red line) is above the EMA18 (blue line) for an up-trend or the EMA9 (red line) is below the EMA18 (blue line) for down-trend.

1.4) Confirm the EMA9 defined trend agrees with the composite of the 13 indicators linked in 2.1. If the chart and the trend confirmation in 2.1 do not agree stand aside.

1.5) Use Support & Resistance linked in 2.15 for setting profit objectives and risk levels, contact me for more information on how we use these.

2) KEYS   Keysight Technologies Inc Comm

2.1) Today’s Technical Opinion
2.2) 2 day chart, 15 minute data
2.3) 3 day chart, 30 minute
2.4) 5 day chart, 60 minute data
2.5) 10 day chart 120 minute
2.6) 3 month chart, daily
2.7) 9 month chart, daily
2.8) 1 year chart, daily
2.9)
1 year chart, weekly

2.10) 3 year chart, weekly
2.11) 7 year chart, monthly
2.12) 15 year chart using monthly data
2.13) All data available chart
2.14) Options Quotes
2.15)
Ranges & Price Performance

2.16) Support & Resistance

If you have questions send a message or contact me

Regards,
Peter Knight Advisor

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Privacy Notice

Disclosure

CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill

1) Simplified Trend Qualification Procedure, quotes and charts are updated every 10 minutes

1.1) Pick a time frame to work with from 15 minutes to monthly using any chart linked in 2.2 though 2.12. (the shorter the time frame the shorter the trade duration)

1.2) Qualify the trend using the EMA9 (red line), if price action is above the EMA9 (red line) you’re in an up-trend, below the EMA9 a down-trend.

1.3) Confirm the EMA9 defined trend (red line) is above the EMA18 (blue line) for an up-trend or the EMA9 (red line) is below the EMA18 (blue line) for down-trend.

1.4) Confirm the EMA9 defined trend agrees with the composite of the 13 indicators linked in 2.1. If the chart and the trend confirmation in 2.1 do not agree stand aside.

1.5) Use Support & Resistance linked in 2.15 for setting profit objectives and risk levels, contact me for more information on how we use these.

2) CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill

2.1)  Today’s Technical Opinion
2.2)   2 day chart, 15 minute data
2.3)   3 day chart, 30 minute
2.4)   5 day chart, 60 minute data
2.5)   10 day chart 120 minute
2.6)   3 month chart, daily
2.7)   9 month chart, daily
2.8)   1 year chart, daily
2.9)  
1 year chart, weekly

2.10) 3 year chart, weekly
2.11) 7 year chart, monthly
2.12) 15 year chart using monthly data
2.13) All data available chart
2.14) Options Quotes
2.15)
Ranges & Price Performance

2.16) Support & Resistance

If you have questions send a message or contact me

Regards,
Peter Knight Advisor

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Privacy Notice

Disclosure

AMD Adv Micro Devices 

1) Simplified Trend Qualification Procedure,

1.1) Pick a time frame to work with 30 Minute, Hourly, or 2 Hour.
1.2) If price action above the red line and red line is above the blue = long.
1.3) For longs, overall average on 2.1 below must greater than a 29% buy.
1.4) Risk on longs, if the red line moves below the blue exit the trade.
1.5) If price action is below the red line and the red is below the blue = short.
1.6) For shorts, overall average on 2.1 below must greater than a 29% sell.
1.7) Risk on shorts, if the red line moves above the blue exit the trade.
1.8) Same rules apply for all time periods 30 minute to monthly.
Prices are updated every 10 minutes if you have questions send a message.

2) AMD   Adv Micro Devices

2.1)   Today’s Technical Opinion
2.2)   2 day chart, 15 minute data
2.3)   3 day chart, 30 minute
2.4)   5 day chart, 60 minute data
2.5)   10 day chart 120 minute
2.6)   3 month chart, daily
2.7)   9 month chart, daily
2.8)   1 year chart, daily
2.9)  
1 year chart, weekly

2.10) 3 year chart, weekly
2.11) 7 year chart, monthly
2.12) 15 year chart using monthly data
2.13) All data available chart
2.14) Options Quotes
2.15)
Ranges & Price Performance

2.16) Support & Resistance

If you have questions send a message or contact me

Regards,
Peter Knight Advisor

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Privacy Notice

Disclosure

Top Performing Markets

Performance reports are updated every 10 minutes.

1) All US Stocks

Top 100 gainers (longs) 100 largest losers (shorts)
Today Today
Past 5 Days Past 5 Days
Past Month Past Month
Past 3  Months Past 3 Months
Year to Date Year to Date
Past 12 Months Past 12 Months
Past 3 Years Past 3 Years
Past 5 Years Past 5 Years
Past 10 Years Past 10 Years

2) S&P 500 Stocks  

Top 100 gainers (longs) 100 largest losers (shorts)
1 month 1 month
3 Month 3 Month
Year to Date Year to Date
52 Weeks 52 Weeks

3) Example analysis pages for 5 S&P Stocks

Stock Analysis Page Daily Direction
AMD Adv Micro Devices Chart Opinion
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill Chart Opinion
KEYS Keysight Technologies Chart Opinion
XLNX Xilinx Inc Chart Opinion
FTNT Fortinet Inc Chart Opinion

4) Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)

Top 100 gainers (longs) 100 largest losers (shorts)
Today Today
Past 5 Days Past 5 Days
Past Month Past Month
Past 3 Months Past 3 Months
Year to Date Year to Date
Past 12 Months Past 12 Months
Past 3 Years Past 3 Years
Past 5 Years Past 5 Years
Past 10 Years Past 10 Years

5) US Stock Index Futures

5.1) US Stock Index Futures Year to Date Price Change
5.2) US Stock Index Futures Long, Short, Hold Summary

6) Non US Stocks & Stock Indices

5.1) Non US Stock Index Futures Year to Date Price Change
5.2) Non US Stock Index Futures Long, Short, Hold Summary
5.3) Non US Stocks & ETFs

7) US and European Futures Markets

US Futures gainers & losers Euro Futures gainers & losers
Today Today
5 Day 5 Day
1 Month 1 Month
3 Month 3 Month
6 Month 6 Month
Year to Date Year to Date
12 Month 12 Month

8) Example ATA analysis pages

Analysis Pages
Indices Metals Interest Rates Currencies
S&P 500 Gold Levels Euro-FX
HV S&P Stocks Silver 3 Month Swiss Franc
Dow Platinum Fed Funds Euro- Swiss
Russell 2000 Copper 2 Year British Pound
Nasdaq Palladium 5 Year Pound-Euro
DAX Index Gold – Platinum 10 Year Canadian Dollar
DAX-S&P Spread S&P Gold Ratio 30 Year Australian Dollar
Euro Stoxx 50 Energy 3 EuriBor Japanese Yen
Euro Stoxx E600 Crude WTI 3 Month Sterling USD Index
CAC 40 Crude Brent Euro Schatz Renminbi
FTSE 100 Brent – WTI Euro Bobl
Swiss Index Heating Oil Euro Bund
Hang Seng Index Gasoline Euro OAT
Nikkei Natural Gas Euro Buxl
ASX 200 Index Gold – Oil Ratio

9) Performance rankings enable you to quickly identify what market’s are moving then trade that market with trend rather than be married to one market or sector. 

Of the two traders below who do you think makes more with less stress.

Trader A: He monitors all markets and trades only the ones that are moving with a clean trend, example, Palladium from 26 October 2018 to 28 February 2019.

Contract value 26 October 2018 = $109,800
Contract value 28 February 2019 =$154,560
Total overall change in contract value = +$44,760

Palladium 4 Month Chart & Palladium Analysis Page

Trader B: He only trades the USD, overall he’s done well but he has to endure periods like 26 October 2018 to 28 February 2019 which generated only small gains, losses and frustration as the USD whipsawed up and down with no significant overall rate of change.

Contract value 26 October 2018 = $96,580
Contract value 28 February 2019 =$96,160
Total overall change in contract value = -$420

Daily ranges during this 4 month period frequently exceeded the overall change.

USD Index 4 Month Chart & USD Index Analysis Page

Once a market is qualified, trade it with the trend using a proven trend following program. When the market stalls like the USD did in November 2018 get out.

10) These Futures and  Stock ATA analysis pages fully disclose trading methodology for over 50 of the several hundred ATA markets we track and trade enabling you to duplicate trades in these markets and monitor performance.

11) ATA Account Structure, you define sectors traded, the level of leverage that suits your risk tolerance and overall account risk. My Team identifies trade-able markets, generates and places all orders, monitors all trades and ensures your account stays within your defined guidelines.

12) Your ATA Account allocation can be modified at any time. Example, if you limited your trading to ETF’s and then viewed the futures rankings page seeing Palladium in a beautiful up-trend, you could instruct us to trade it automatically using the procedure outlined on one of the Palladium ATA Analysis Pages.

13) Risk Control with any ATA Account you can define the maximum overall risk on your account before the first trade goes on. This is done by setting an initial and maintenance balance. In the event your maintenance balance is hit the account is automatically liquidated on or before the next settlement and losses contained, if we fail to liquidate on or before the next settlement we’re liable.

14) Mutually Beneficial Fee Structure The ATA team that directs trades in your account base compensation on 12.50% of net new high profits quarterly with a 0.00% management fee. For larger accounts the incentive fee can drop from 12.50% to as low as 5.00% of net new high profits.

15) Linked here is the performance several ATA markets, contact me for others.

16) ATA summary & account opening procedure

16.1) The ATA Fee Structure
16.1) Defining Overall Risk For Your ATA Account
16.1) How Balances Are Guaranteed Plus or Minus Trading
16.1) How To Open An Account

17) Links to Exchanges we trade on, firms we can trade through & the Asset Allocation Software we use.  

17.1) 43 Exchanges
17.2) 70+ Brokerage Firms
17.3) Multi Market/Manager Asset Allocation

18) Working with us you can trade long or short in any liquid,

19) Using any approved

19.1) Automated Trading Program
19.2) Commodity Trading Advisor (CTAs) (only QEP’s)
19.3) Hedge Fund (only QEP’s)

20) Account minimums USD or major currency equivalent

Futures & Forex, $10,000 to $500,000
Stocks & ETFs, $100,000 to $2,500,000
CTA & Hedge Funds $250,000 to $10,000,000 (only QEP’s)

Send a message or contact me with any questions. 

Regards,
Peter Knight Advisor

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Privacy Notice

Disclosure

QEP Acknowledgement

A Qualified Eligible Participant is

A Non US citizen net worth ($500,000+) that completes a W-8BEN and has a minimum of 12 months prior risk investment experience in most cases a W-BEN will negate the need for any additional QEP verification information although some firms may require you to sign a NON-US QEP verification form.  

Or

A US citizen who qualifies under rule 4.7 of  The Commodity Exchange Act

Rule 4.7 Defined

A US citizen who owns at least $4,000,000 of securities and other investments excluding their primary residence. 

Has had an open account for at least six months with at least $400,000 for Securities & Futures trading. Current regulations require a brokerage statement(s) no older than 3 months for verification.

QEPs are similar to, but not the same as, accredited investors. That is, they are considered sophisticated investors who understand the nature and risks of commodities trading and hedge funds. Accordingly, when funds allow only QEPs as investors they are involving only people who fully understand the nature and risks of the investment.

Why it Matters:

The Commodity Exchange Act of 1936 requires hedge fund managers to register as commodity pool operators (CPO) if their funds trade any commodity futures, contracts, or options. CPOs must comply with the Act’s disclosure requirements as well as those of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). If a hedge fund limits its investors only to qualified eligible participants (QEPs), the hedge fund may be able to obtain an exemption from several regulations the Commodity Exchange Act would impose.

Q.E.P. Rule 4.7 of the Commodity Exchange Act

Exemption from certain part 4 requirements for commodity pool operators with respect to offerings to qualified eligible persons and for commodity trading advisors with respect to advising qualified eligible persons.

This section is organized as follows: Paragraph
(a) contains definitions for the purposes of § 4.7; paragraph
(b) contains the relief available to commodity pool operators under § 4.7; paragraph
(c) contains the relief available to commodity trading advisors under § 4.7; paragraph
(d) concerns the Notice of Claim for Exemption under § 4.7; and paragraph
(e) addresses the effect of an insignificant deviation from a term, condition or requirement of § 4.7.

(a) Definitions. Paragraph
(a)(1) of this section contains general definitions, paragraph
(a)(2) of this section contains the definition of the term qualified eligible person with respect to those persons who do not need to satisfy the Portfolio Requirement and paragraph
(a)(3) of this section contains the definition of the term qualified eligible person with respect to those persons who must satisfy the Portfolio Requirement. For the purposes of this section:

(1) In general—
(i) Affiliate of, or a person affiliated with, a specified person means a person that directly or indirectly through one or more persons, controls, is controlled by, or is under common control with the specified person.
(ii) Exempt account means the account of a qualified eligible person that is directed or guided by a commodity trading advisor pursuant to an effective claim for exemption under § 4.7.
(iii) Exempt pool means a pool that is operated pursuant to an effective claim for exemption under § 4.7.

(iv) Non-United States person means:
(A) A natural person who is not a resident of the United States;
(B) A partnership, corporation or other entity, other than an entity organized principally for passive investment, organized under the laws of a foreign jurisdiction and which has its principal place of business in a foreign jurisdiction;
(C) An estate or trust, the income of which is not subject to United States income tax regardless of source;

(D) An entity organized principally for passive investment such as a pool, investment company or other similar entity; Provided, That units of participation in the entity held by persons who do not qualify as Non-United States persons or otherwise as qualified eligible persons represent in the aggregate less than 10% of the beneficial interest in the entity, and that such entity was not formed principally for the purpose of facilitating investment by persons who do not qualify as Non-United States persons in a pool with respect to which the operator is exempt from certain requirements of Part 4 of the Commission’s regulations by virtue of its participants being Non-United States persons; and

(E) A pension plan for the employees, officers or principals of an entity organized and with its principal place of business outside the United States.

(v) Portfolio Requirement means that a person:
(A) Owns securities (including pool participation) of issuers not affiliated with such person and other investments with an aggregate market value of at least $2,000,000;
(B) Has had on deposit with a futures commission merchant, for its own account at any time during the six-month period preceding either the date of sale to that person of a pool participation in the exempt pool or the date that the person opens an exempt account with the commodity trading advisor, at least $200,000 in exchange-specified initial margin and option premiums for commodity interest transactions; or
(C) Owns a portfolio comprised of a combination of the funds or property specified in paragraphs (a)(1)(v)(A) and (B) of this section in which the sum of the funds or property includable under paragraph (a)(1)(v)(A), expressed as a percentage of the minimum amount required thereunder, and the amount of futures margin and option premiums includable under paragraph (a)(1)(v)(B), expressed as a percentage of the minimum amount required thereunder, equals at least one hundred percent. An example of a composite portfolio acceptable under this paragraph (a)(1)(v)(C) would consist of $1,000,000 in securities and other property (50% of paragraph (a)(1)(v)(A)) and $100,000 in exchange-specified initial margin and option premiums (50% of paragraph (a)(1)(v) (B)).(vi) United States means the United States, its states, territories or possessions, or an enclave of the United States government, its agencies or instrumentality.

(2) Persons who do not need to satisfy the Portfolio Requirement to be qualified eligible persons. Qualified eligible person means any person, acting for its own account or for the account of a qualified eligible person, who the commodity pool operator reasonably believes, at the time of the sale to that person of a pool participation in the exempt pool, or who the commodity trading advisor reasonably believes, at the time that person opens an exempt account, is:
(i) A futures commission merchant registered pursuant to section 4d of the Act, or a principal thereof;
(ii) A broker or dealer registered pursuant to section 15 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, or a principal thereof;

(iii) A commodity pool operator registered pursuant to section 4m of the Act, or a principal thereof; Provided, That the pool operator:

(A) Has been registered and active as such for two years; or

(B) Operates pools which, in the aggregate, have total assets in excess of $5,000,000;

(iv) A commodity trading advisor registered pursuant to section 4m of the Act, or a principal thereof; Provided, That the trading advisor:
(A) Has been registered and active as such for two years; or
(B) Provides commodity interest trading advice to commodity accounts which, in the aggregate, have total assets in excess of $5,000,000 deposited at one or more futures commission merchants;

(v) An investment adviser registered pursuant to section 203 of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 (“Investment Advisers Act”) or pursuant to the laws of any state, or a principal thereof; Provided, That the investment adviser:
(A) Has been registered and active as such for two years; or
(B) Provides securities investment advice to securities accounts which, in the aggregate, have total assets in excess of $5,000,000 deposited at one or more registered securities brokers;
(vi) A “qualified purchaser” as defined in section 2(51)(A) of the Investment Company Act of 1940 (the “Investment Company Act”);
(vii) A “knowledgeable employee” as defined in § 270.3c-5 of this title;
(viii)(A) With respect to an exempt pool:
(1) The commodity pool operator, commodity trading advisor or investment adviser of the exempt pool offered or sold, or an affiliate of any of the foregoing;
(2) A principal of the exempt pool or the commodity pool operator, commodity trading advisor or investment adviser of the exempt pool, or of an affiliate of any of the foregoing;
(3) An employee of the exempt pool or the commodity pool operator, commodity trading advisor or investment adviser of the exempt pool, or of an affiliate of any of the foregoing (other than an employee performing solely clerical, secretarial or administrative functions with regard to such person or its investments) who, in connection with his or her regular functions or duties, participates in the investment activities of the exempt pool, other commodity pools operated by the pool operator of the exempt pool or other accounts advised by the trading advisor or the investment adviser of the exempt pool, or by the affiliate; Provided, That such employee has been performing such functions and duties for or on behalf of the exempt pool, pool operator, trading advisor, investment adviser or affiliate, or substantially similar functions or duties for or on behalf of another person engaged in providing commodity interest, securities or other financial services, for at least 12 months;
(4) Any other employee of, or an agent engaged to perform legal, accounting, auditing or other financial services for, the exempt pool or the commodity pool operator, commodity trading advisor or investment adviser of the exempt pool, or any other employee of, or agent so engaged by, an affiliate of any of the foregoing (other than an employee or agent performing solely clerical, secretarial or administrative functions with regard to such person or its investments); Provided, That such employee or agent:
(i) Is an accredited investor as defined in § 230.501(a)(5) or (6) of this title; and
(ii) Has been employed or engaged by the exempt pool, commodity pool operator, commodity trading advisor, investment adviser or affiliate, or by another person engaged in providing commodity interest, securities or other financial services, for at least 24 months;
(5) The spouse, child, sibling or parent of a person who satisfies the criteria of paragraph (a)(2)(viii)(A)(1), (2), (3) or (4) of this section; Provided, That:
(i) An investment in the exempt pool by any such family member is made with the knowledge and at the direction of the person; and
(ii) The family member is not a qualified eligible person for the purposes of paragraph (a)(3)(xi) of this section;
(6)(i) Any person who acquires a participation in the exempt pool by gift, bequest or pursuant to an agreement relating to a legal separation or divorce from a person listed in paragraph (a)(2)(viii)(A)(1), (2), (3), (4) or (5) of this section;
(ii) The estate of any person listed in paragraph (a)(2)(viii)(A)(1), (2), (3), (4) or (5) of this section; or

(iii) A company established by any person listed in paragraph (a)(2)(viii)(A)(1), (2), (3), (4) or (5) of this section exclusively for the benefit of (or owned exclusively by) that person and any person listed in paragraph (a)(2)(viii)(A)(6)(i) or (ii) of this section;
(B) With respect to an exempt account:
(1) An affiliate of the commodity trading advisor of the exempt account;
(2) A principal of the commodity trading advisor of the exempt account or of an affiliate of the trading advisor;
(3) An employee of the commodity trading advisor of the exempt account or of an affiliate of the trading advisor (other than an employee performing solely clerical, secretarial or administrative functions with regard to such person or its investments) who, in connection with his or her regular functions or duties, participates in the investment activities of the trading advisor or the affiliate; Provided, That such employee has been performing such functions and duties for or on behalf of the trading advisor or the affiliate, or substantially similar functions or duties for or on behalf of another person engaged in providing commodity interest, securities or other financial services, for at least 12 months;
(4) Any other employee of, or an agent engaged to perform legal, accounting, auditing or other financial services for, the commodity trading advisor of the exempt account or any other employee of, or agent so engaged by, an affiliate of the trading advisor (other than an employee or agent performing solely clerical, secretarial or administrative functions with regard to such person or its investments); Provided, That such employee or agent:
(i) Is an accredited investor as defined in § 230.501(a)(5) or (a)(6) of this title; and
(ii) Has been employed or engaged by the commodity trading advisor or the affiliate, or by another person engaged in providing commodity interest, securities or other financial services, for at least 24 months; or
(5) The spouse, child, sibling or parent of the commodity trading advisor of the exempt account or of a person who satisfies the criteria of paragraph (a)(2)(viii)(B)(1), (2), (3) or (4) of this section; Provided, That:
(i) The establishment of an exempt account by any such family member is made with the knowledge and at the direction of the person; and
(ii) The family member is not a qualified eligible person for the purposes of paragraph (a)(3)(xi) of this section;
(6)(i) Any person who acquires an interest in an exempt account by gift, bequest or pursuant to an agreement relating to a legal separation or divorce from a person listed in paragraph (a)(2)(viii)(B)(1), (2), (3), (4) or (5) of this section;
(ii) The estate of any person listed in paragraph (a)(2)(viii)(B)(1), (2), (3), (4) or (5) of this section; or
(iii) A company established by any person listed in paragraph (a)(2)(viii)(B)(1), (2), (3), (4) or (5) of this section exclusively for the benefit of (or owned exclusively by) that person and any person listed in paragraph (a)(2)(viii)(B)(6)(i) or (ii) of this section;
(ix) A trust; Provided, That:
(A) The trust was not formed for the specific purpose of either participating in the exempt pool or opening an exempt account; and
(B) The trustee or other person authorized to make investment decisions with respect to the trust, and each settlor or other person who has contributed assets to the trust, is a qualified eligible person;

(x) An organization described in section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code (the “IRC”); Provided, That the trustee or other person authorized to make investment decisions with respect to the organization, and the person who has established the organization, is a qualified eligible person;
(xi) A Non-United States person;
(xii)(A) An entity in which all of the unit owners or participants, other than the commodity trading advisor claiming relief under this section, are qualified eligible persons;
(B) An exempt pool; or

(C) Notwithstanding paragraph (a)(3) of this section, an entity as to which a notice of eligibility has been filed pursuant to § 4.5 which is operated in accordance with such rule and in which all unit owners or participants, other than the commodity trading advisor claiming relief under this section, are qualified eligible persons.
(3) Persons who must satisfy the Portfolio Requirement to be qualified eligible persons. Qualified eligible person means any person who the commodity pool operator reasonably believes, at the time of the sale to that person of a pool participation in the exempt pool, or any person who the commodity trading advisor reasonably believes, at the time that person opens an exempt account, satisfies the Portfolio Requirement and is:
(i) An investment company registered under the Investment Company Act or a business development company as defined in section 2(a)(48) of such Act not formed for the specific purpose of either investing in the exempt pool or opening an exempt account;
(ii) A bank as defined in section 3(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933 (the “Securities Act”) or any savings and loan association or other institution as defined in section 3(a)(5)(A) of the Securities Act acting for its own account or for the account of a qualified eligible person;
(iii) An insurance company as defined in section 2(13) of the Securities Act acting for its own account or for the account of a qualified eligible person;
(iv) A plan established and maintained by a state, its political subdivisions, or any agency or instrumentality of a state or its political subdivisions, for the benefit of its employees, if such plan has total assets in excess of $5,000,000;

(v) An employee benefit plan within the meaning of the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974; Provided, That the investment decision is made by a plan fiduciary, as defined in section 3(21) of such Act, which is a bank, savings and loan association, insurance company, or registered investment adviser; or that the employee benefit plan has total assets in excess of $5,000,000; or, if the plan is self-directed, that investment decisions are made solely by persons that are qualified eligible persons;
(vi) A private business development company as defined in section 202(a)(22) of the Investment Advisers Act;
(vii) An organization described in section 501(c)(3) of the IRC, with total assets in excess of $5,000,000;
(viii) A corporation, Massachusetts or similar business trust, or partnership, other than a pool, which has total assets in excess of $5,000,000, and is not formed for the specific purpose of either participating in the exempt pool or opening an exempt account;
(ix) A natural person whose individual net worth, or joint net worth with that person’s spouse, at the time of either his purchase in the exempt pool or his opening of an exempt account exceeds $1,000,000;
(x) A natural person who had an individual income in excess of $200,000 in each of the two most recent years or joint income with that person’s spouse in excess of $300,000 in each of those years and has a reasonable expectation of reaching the same income level in the current year;
(xi) A pool, trust, insurance company separate account or bank collective trust, with total assets in excess of $5,000,000, not formed for the specific purpose of either participating in the exempt pool or opening an exempt account, and whose participation in the exempt pool or investment in the exempt account is directed by a qualified eligible person; or
(xii) Except as provided for the governmental entities referenced in paragraph (a)(3)(iv) of this section, if otherwise authorized by law to engage in such transactions, a governmental entity (including the United States, a state, or a foreign government) or political subdivision thereof, or a multinational or supranational entity or an instrumentality, agency, or department of any of the foregoing.
(b) Relief available to commodity pool operators. Upon filing the notice required by paragraph (d) of this section, and subject to compliance with the conditions specified in paragraph (d) of this section, any registered commodity pool operator who offers or sells participations in a pool solely to qualified eligible persons in an offering which qualifies for exemption from the registration requirements of the Securities Act pursuant to section 4(2) of that Act or pursuant to Regulation S, 17 CFR 230.901 et seq., and any bank registered as a commodity pool operator in connection with a pool that is a collective trust fund whose securities are exempt from registration under the Securities Act pursuant to section 3(a)(2) of that Act and are offered or sold, without marketing to the public, solely to qualified eligible persons, may claim any or all of the following relief with respect to such pool:
(1) Disclosure relief. (i) Exemption from the specific requirements of §§ 4.21, 4.24, 4.25 and 4.26 with respect to each exempt pool; Provided, That if an offering memorandum is distributed in connection with soliciting prospective participants in the exempt pool, such offering memorandum must include all disclosures necessary to make the information contained therein, in the context in which it is furnished, not misleading; and that the following statement is prominently disclosed on the cover page of the offering memorandum, or, if none is provided, immediately above the signature line on the subscription agreement or other document that the prospective participant must execute to become a participant in the pool:

“PURSUANT TO AN EXEMPTION FROM THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION IN CONNECTION WITH POOLS WHOSE PARTICIPANTS ARE LIMITED TO QUALIFIED ELIGIBLE PERSONS, AN OFFERING MEMORANDUM FOR THIS POOL IS NOT REQUIRED TO BE, AND HAS NOT BEEN, FILED WITH THE COMMISSION. THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION DOES NOT PASS UPON THE MERITS OF PARTICIPATING IN A POOL OR UPON THE ADEQUACY OR ACCURACY OF AN OFFERING MEMORANDUM. CONSEQUENTLY, THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION HAS NOT REVIEWED OR APPROVED THIS OFFERING OR ANY OFFERING MEMORANDUM FOR THIS POOL.”
(ii) Exemption from disclosing the past performance of exempt pools in the Disclosure Document of non-exempt pools except to the extent that such past performance is material to the non-exempt pool being offered; Provided, That a pool operator that has claimed exemption hereunder and elects not to disclose any such performance in the Disclosure Document of non-exempt pools shall state in a footnote to the performance disclosure therein that the operator is operating or has operated exempt pools whose performance is not disclosed in this Disclosure Document.
(2) Periodic reporting relief. Exemption from the specific requirements of §§ 4.22(a) and (b); Provided, That a statement signed and affirmed in accordance with § 4.22(h) is prepared and distributed to pool participants no less frequently than quarterly within 30 calendar days after the end of the reporting period. This statement must indicate:
(i) The net asset value of the exempt pool as of the end of the reporting period;
(ii) The change in net asset value from the end of the previous reporting period; and
(iii) The net asset value per outstanding unit of participation in the exempt pool as of the end of the reporting period.
(3) Annual report relief. (i) Exemption from the specific requirements of §§ 4.22(c) and (d); Provided, That within 90 calendar days after the end of the exempt pool’s fiscal year, the commodity pool operator files with the Commission and with the National Futures Association and distributes to each participant in lieu of the financial information and statements specified by those sections, an annual report for the exempt pool, signed and affirmed in accordance with § 4.22(h) which contains, at a minimum:
(A) A Statement of Financial Condition as of the close of the exempt pool’s fiscal year (elected in accordance with § 4.22(g));
(B) A Statement of Income (Loss) for that year; and
(C) Appropriate footnote disclosure and any other material information.
(ii) Such annual report must be presented and computed in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles consistently applied and, if certified by an independent public accountant, so certified in accordance with § 1.16 as applicable.

(iii) Legend. (A) If a claim for exemption has been made pursuant to this section, the commodity pool operator must make a statement to that effect on the cover page of each annual report.
(B) If the annual report is not certified in accordance with § 1.16, the pool operator must make a statement to that effect on the cover page of each annual report and state that a certified audit will be provided upon the request of the holders of a majority of the units of participation in the pool who are unaffiliated with the commodity pool operator.
(4) Recordkeeping relief. Exemption from the specific requirements of § 4.23; Provided, That the commodity pool operator must maintain the reports referred to in paragraphs (b)(2) and (b)(3) of this section and all books and records prepared in connection with his activities as the pool operator of the exempt pool (including, without limitation, records relating to the qualifications of qualified eligible persons and substantiating any performance representations) at his main business address and must make such books and records available to any representative of the Commission, the National Futures Association and the United States Department of Justice in accordance with the provisions of § 1.31.
(c) Relief available to commodity trading advisors. Upon filing the notice required by paragraph (d) of this section, and subject to compliance with the conditions specified in paragraph (d) of this section, any registered commodity trading advisor who anticipates directing or guiding the commodity interest accounts of qualified eligible persons may claim any or all of the following relief with respect to the accounts of qualified eligible persons who have given due consent to their account being an exempt account under § 4.7:
(1) Disclosure relief. (i) Exemption from the specific requirements of §§ 4.31, 4.34, 4.35 and 4.36; Provided, That if the commodity trading advisor delivers a brochure or other disclosure statement to such qualified eligible persons, such brochure or statement shall include all additional disclosures necessary to make the information contained therein, in the context in which it is furnished, not misleading; and that the following statement is prominently displayed on the cover page of the brochure or statement or, if none is provided, immediately above the signature line of the agreement that the client must execute before it opens an account with the commodity trading advisor:

“PURSUANT TO AN EXEMPTION FROM THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION IN CONNECTION WITH ACCOUNTS OF QUALIFIED ELIGIBLE PERSONS, THIS BROCHURE OR ACCOUNT DOCUMENT IS NOT REQUIRED TO BE, AND HAS NOT BEEN, FILED WITH THE COMMISSION. THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION DOES NOT PASS UPON THE MERITS OF PARTICIPATING IN A TRADING PROGRAM OR UPON THE ADEQUACY OR ACCURACY OF COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR DISCLOSURE. CONSEQUENTLY, THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION HAS NOT REVIEWED OR APPROVED THIS TRADING PROGRAM OR THIS BROCHURE OR ACCOUNT DOCUMENT.”
(ii) Exemption from disclosing the past performance of exempt accounts in the Disclosure Document for non-exempt accounts except to the extent that such past performance is material to the non-exempt account being offered; Provided, That a commodity trading advisor that has claimed exemption hereunder and elects not to disclose any such performance in the Disclosure Document for non-exempt accounts shall state in a footnote to the performance disclosure therein that the advisor is advising or has advised exempt accounts for qualified eligible persons whose performance is not disclosed in this Disclosure Document.
(2) Recordkeeping relief. Exemption from the specific requirements of § 4.33; Provided, That the commodity trading advisor must maintain, at its main business office, all books and records prepared in connection with his activities as the commodity trading advisor of qualified eligible persons (including, without limitation, records relating to the qualifications of such qualified eligible persons and substantiating any performance representations) and must make such books and records available to any representative of the Commission, the National Futures Association and the United States Department of Justice in accordance with the provisions of § 1.31.

(d) Notice of claim for exemption. (1) A notice of a claim for exemption under this section must:
(i) Be in writing;
(ii) Provide the name, main business address, main business telephone number and the National Futures Association commodity pool operator or commodity trading advisor identification number of the person claiming the exemption;

(iii)(A) Where the claimant is a commodity pool operator, provide the name(s) of the pool(s) for which the request is made; Provided, That a single notice representing that the pool operator anticipates operating single-investor pools may be filed to claim exemption for single-investor pools and such notice need not name each such pool;
(B) Where the claimant is a commodity trading advisor, contain a representation that the trading advisor anticipates providing commodity interest trading advice to qualified eligible persons;
(iv) Contain representations that:
(A) Neither the commodity pool operator or commodity trading advisor nor any of its principals is subject to any statutory disqualification under section 8a(2) or 8a(3) of the Act unless such disqualification arises from a matter which was previously disclosed in connection with a previous application for registration if such registration was granted or which was disclosed more than thirty days prior to the filing of the notice under this paragraph (d);
(B) The commodity pool operator or commodity trading advisor will comply with the applicable requirements of § 4.7; and
(C) Where the claimant is a commodity pool operator, that the exempt pool will be offered and operated in compliance with the applicable requirements of § 4.7;
(v) Specify the relief claimed under § 4.7;
(vi) Where the claimant is a commodity pool operator, state the closing date of the offering or that the offering will be continuous;
(vii) Be signed by the commodity pool operator or commodity trading advisor as follows: If it is a sole proprietorship, by the sole proprietor; if a partnership, by a general partner; and if a corporation, by the chief executive officer or chief financial officer;
(viii) Be filed in duplicate with the Commission at the address specified in § 4.2 and with the National Futures Association at its headquarters office (Attn: Director of Compliance, Compliance Department); and
(ix)(A)(1) Where the claimant is a commodity pool operator, except as provided in paragraph (d)(1)(iii)(A) of this section with respect to single-investor pools and in paragraph (d)(1)(ix)(A)(2) of this section, be received by the Commission:
(i) Before the date the pool first enters into a commodity interest transaction, if the relief claimed is limited to that provided under paragraphs (b)(2), (3) and (4) of this section; or
(ii) Prior to any offer or sale of any participation in the exempt pool if the claimed relief includes that provided under paragraph (b)(1) of this section.
(2) Where participations in a pool have been offered or sold in full compliance with Part 4, the notice of a claim for exemption may be filed with the Commission at any time; Provided, That the claim for exemption is otherwise consistent with the duties of the commodity pool operator and the rights of pool participants and that the commodity pool operator notifies the pool participants of his intention, absent objection by the holders of a majority of the units of participation in the pool who are unaffiliated with the commodity pool operator within twenty-one days after the date of the notification, to file a notice of claim for exemption under § 4.7 and such holders have not objected within such period. A commodity pool operator filing a notice under this paragraph (d)(1)(ix)(A)(2) shall either provide disclosure and reporting in accordance with the requirements of Part 4 to those participants objecting to the filing of such notice or allow such participants to redeem their units of participation in the pool within three months of the filing of such notice.

(B) Where the claimant is a commodity trading advisor, be received by the Commission before the date the trading advisor first enters into an agreement to direct or guide the commodity interest account of a qualified eligible person pursuant to § 4.7.

(2) The notice will be effective upon receipt by the Commission with respect to each pool for which it was made where the claimant is a commodity pool operator and otherwise generally where the claimant is a commodity trading advisor; Provided, That any notice which does not include all the required information shall not be effective, and that if at the time the Commission receives the notice, an enforcement proceeding brought by the Commission under the Act or the regulations is pending against the pool operator or trading advisor or any of its principals, the exemption will not be effective until twenty-one calendar days after receipt of the notice by the Commission and that in such case an exemption may be denied by the Commission or made subject to such conditions as the Commission may impose.
(3) Any exemption claimed hereunder shall cease to be effective upon any change which would cause the commodity pool operator of an exempt pool to be ineligible for the relief claimed with respect to such pool or which would cause a commodity trading advisor to be ineligible for the relief claimed. The pool operator or trading advisor must promptly file a notice advising the Commission of such change.
(4)(i) Any exemption from the requirements of § 4.21, 4.22, 4.23, 4.24, 4.25 or 4.26 claimed hereunder with respect to a pool shall not affect the obligation of the commodity pool operator to comply with all other applicable provisions of Part 4, the Act and the Commission’s rules and regulations, with respect to the pool and any other pool the pool operator operates or intends to operate.
(ii) Any exemption from the requirements of § 4.31, 4.33, 4.34, 4.35 or 4.36 claimed hereunder shall not affect the obligation of the commodity trading advisor to comply with all other applicable provisions of Part 4, the Act and the Commission’s rules and regulations, with respect to any qualified eligible person and any other client to which the commodity trading advisor provides or intends to provide commodity interest trading advice.
(e) Insignificant deviations from a term, condition or requirement of § 4.7. (1) A failure to comply with a term or condition of § 4.7 will not result in the loss of the exemption with respect to a particular pool or client if the commodity pool operator or the commodity trading advisor relying on the exemption shows that:
(i) The failure to comply did not pertain to a term, condition or requirement directly intended to protect that particular qualified eligible person;
(ii) The failure to comply was insignificant with respect to the exempt pool as a whole or to the particular exempt account; and
(iii) A good faith and reasonable attempt was made to comply with all applicable terms, conditions and requirements of § 4.7.
(2) A transaction made in reliance on § 4.7 must comply with all applicable terms, conditions and requirements of § 4.7. Where an exemption is established only through reliance upon paragraph (e)(1) of this section, the failure to comply shall nonetheless be actionable by the Commission.

CFTC RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

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Disclosure

 

GDX Gold Miners Vaneck ETF(GDX)

1) Simplified Trend Qualification Procedure, quotes and charts are updated every 10 minutes

1.1) Pick a time frame to work with from 15 minutes to monthly using any chart linked in 2.2 though 2.12. (the shorter the time frame the shorter the trade duration)

1.2) Qualify the trend using the EMA9 (red line), if price action is above the EMA9 (red line) you’re in an up-trend, below the EMA9 a down-trend.

1.3) Confirm the EMA9 defined trend (red line) is above the EMA18 (blue line) for an up-trend or the EMA9 (red line) is below the EMA18 (blue line) for down-trend.

1.4) Confirm the EMA9 defined trend agrees with the composite of the 13 indicators linked in 2.1. If the chart and the trend confirmation in 2.1 do not agree stand aside.

1.5) Use Support & Resistance linked in 2.15 for setting profit objectives and risk levels, contact me for more information on how we use these.

2) GDX  Gold Miners Vaneck ETF(GDX)

2.1) Today’s Technical Opinion
2.2) 2 day chart, 15 minute data
2.3) 3 day chart, 30 minute
2.4) 5 day chart, 60 minute data
2.5) 10 day chart 120 minute
2.6) 3 month chart, daily
2.7) 9 month chart, daily
2.8) 1 year chart, weekly
2.9) 3 year chart, weekly
2.10) 7 year Chart, monthly
2.11) 15 year chart using monthly data
2.12) 1983- Current Chart
2.13) Options Quotes
2.14)
Ranges & Price Performance

2.15) Support & Resistance

If you have questions send a message or contact me

Regards,
Peter Knight Advisor

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Privacy Notice

Disclosure

DAX versus S&P 500

1) Simplified Trend Qualification Procedure, quotes and charts are updated every 10 minutes

1.1) Pick a time frame to work with from 15 minutes to monthly using any chart linked in 2.1 though 2.11. (the shorter the time frame the shorter the trade duration)

1.2) Qualify the trend using the EMA9 (red line), if price action is above the EMA9 (red line) you’re in an up-trend, below the EMA9 a down-trend.

1.3) Confirm the EMA9 defined trend (red line) is above the EMA18 (blue line) for an up-trend or the EMA9 (red line) is below the EMA18 (blue line) for down-trend.

1.4) Confirm the strength or weakness of the trend using the opinions in 2.12 and 2.13, contact me and I’ll show you how to use these.

1.5) If the spread is expanding Buy the DAX and Sell the S&P 500, contracting Sell the DAX and Buy the S&P 500.

2) DAX (DY) versus S&P 500 (ES)

2.1)   DAX Versus S&P 500 priced in change (3 day, 15 minute)
2.2)   DAX Versus S&P 500 (10 day, 30 minute)
2.3)   DAX Versus S&P 500 (10 day, 60 minute)
2.4)   DAX Versus S&P 500 (20 day, 60 minute)
2.5)   DAX Versus S&P 500 (10 day, 120 minute)
2.6)   DAX Versus S&P 500 (1 month, 120 minute)
2.7)   DAX Versus S&P 500 (360 minute 1 month)
2.8)   DAX Versus S&P 500 (360 minute November 2018 +)
2.9)   DAX Versus S&P 500 (6 month, daily)
2.10) DAX Versus S&P 500 (3 year, weekly)
2.11) DAX Versus the S&P 500 (7 year, monthly)
2.12) DAX (DY) Opinion
2.13) S&P 500 (ES) Opinion

3) DAX Analysis Page

4) S&P 500 Analysis Page

5) Summary & account opening procedure

5.1) ATA’s, What They Are and How They Work
5.2) ATA Performance Page
5.3) The ATA Fee Structure
5.4) Defining Overall Risk For Your ATA Account
5.5) How Balances Are Guaranteed Plus or Minus Trading
5.6) How To Open An Account Minimums 12.5K to 500K+

If you have questions send a message or contact me

Regards,
Peter Knight Advisor

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Privacy Notice

Disclosure

Too bad all trades don’t work out thsi well.

My email from 25 October 2021 below, the rate trade is outlined in section 5 “trading the first leg higher”  short 250 GEM22 contacts at 99.80 representing a rate of 0.20% position value $125,000, 

Current price for GEM22 98.55, representing a rate of 1.45% position vlaue $781,250 open trade equity $656,250.

Going to maintain this position until the red EMA9 moves above the blue EMA18 on this chart

U.S. inflation 5.40%
3 month deposit rates June 2022 delivery 0.20%
Entry 0.20%, position value $125,000, short 99.80
Objective 1.20%, position value at $625,000, contract price 98.80
5 Year chart for the June 2022 delivery
Today’s probability of a rate hike at the next Fed meeting

About trading rates higher and why

Sources & Data Spreadsheet


3 month deposit rate history 1934 to 2021

  • Low  0.01%, position value $6,250, January 1940
  • High 16.30%, position value $10,187.500, May 1981
  • Average 3.57%, position value $2,231,250
Sources & Data Spreadsheet

What we’re trading

3 month rate futures (Eurodollars) represent the interest on $1,000,000 for 3 months, each 0.01% change in rate $25.00 change in contract value, a 1.00% move $2,500 per contact.

How it works

As rates rise the contact price falls to reflect the increase in rate. To convert contact price into the rate it represents take 100.0000 –  the contact price = the rate.

Sources & Data Spreadsheet

To calculate contract’s value take the rate and multiply it by $2,500.00 USD.

Sources & Data Spreadsheet

Trading the first leg higher

  • There are 6 Fed meetings through June 2022
  • Inflation is at 5.40%
  • Our trade entry is 0.20%, price 99.80, delivery June 2022
  • We’re expecting 2 to 4, 0.25% rate hikes at these 6 meetings through June 2022
  • Increasing the position’s value from $125,000 to $625,00 at 1.20%
  • At 1.20% 3 month rates will be 4.20% below reported inflation
  • If our 1.20% objective isn’t achieved we’ll roll the position annually until it is
Sources & Data Spreadsheet

New position June 2022 delivery

  • Short 250 contracts at 99.80
  • 99.8000 represents a rate of 0.20% (100.00 – 99.80 = 0.20%)
  • Contact value at 99.80 = $500.00, position value = $125,000.00.
  • Margin requirement $176.00 per contact, position requirement $44,000.00
  • Each 0.01% change = $25.00 per contact, my position = $6,250.00
  • I’m allocating $800.00 per contact, total for my position $200,000.
  • In order for me to be stopped out 3 month deposit rates for June 2022 delivery would have to go negative 0.05%.

Track this trade using this chart each 0.01 move up from 99.80 creates a loss of -$6,250, each 0.01 move down from 99.80 a profit of +6,250.

Potential outcomes of this trade,

June 2022 delivery went on the Board 15 June 2012
I’ve capitalized this position with $200,000

At the lowest rate for June 2022 delivery since 2012

  • 99.8450, date 4 August 2020
  • 100.00 – 99.8450 = a rate of 0.1550%
  • Loss of 0.045, -$112.50 per contact,
  • Total Loss at the lowest rate for June 2022 delivery since June 2012 -$28,125.00.

If 3 month rates go to the 1934-2021 all-time low

  • 99.9900, date January 1940
  • 100.0000 – 99.9900 = a rate of 0.0100%
  • Loss 0.019 or $475 per contact
  • Total on my position at the 1934-2021 low -$118,750.00.

Realistic objective by June 2022

  • 98.80 by June 2022
  • 100.00 – 98.80 = a rate of 1.20%
  • Profit 1.00 or $2,500.00 per contact
  • Total on my position at 1.20% $500,000
  • If my objective is not achieved I’ll roll the position annually until it is

At the highest rate for June 2022 delivery since June 2012

  • 94.885, date 10 September 2013
  • 100.00 – 94.885 = a rate of 5.115%
  • Profit 4.9150 or $12,287.50 per contact
  • Total on the position at the highest rate for June 2022 delivery $3,071,875.

My log-term objective over the next 2 to 4 years is to see 3 months rates move up to reported inflation currently at 5.40%, at 5.40% a 250 contact position will have a value of $3,375,000.

As this position appreciates I’ll be protecting gains using collar strategies with expirations timed shortly after each Fed meeting.

Why I’m in this trade, 3 month deposit rates currently pay 5.20% less than reported inflation (negative rate of return), current fundamentals tell us that U.S, inflation cannot be contained and will fuel rates higher.
 

Sources & Data Spreadsheet

Historical real and negative rates of return

1970 through 2007

  • Reported inflation averaged 4.71%
  • Average 3 month deposit rate 7.03%
  • Real rate of return 2.32% (rate paid above reported inflation)

From 2008 through 2021

  • Reported inflation averaged 1.98%
  • Average 3 month deposit rate 1.02%
  • Negative rate of return -0.97%  (rate paid below reported inflation)

October 2021

  • Reported inflation 5.40%
  • 3 month deposit rate 0.20%
  • Negative rate of return -5.20% (rate paid below reported inflation)

Fundamentals

By 2008 negative rates of return had collapsed demand for record amounts of new debt hitting the open market. 

Sources & Data Spreadsheet

In 2008 the Federal Government had 2 choices

  • To protect the fiscal integrity of America, the U.S. dollar, U.S debt rating and quality of life of future generations by letting the institutions that caused the mortgage crisis fail, balancing the budget and dealing with the impact.
  • Have a print and spend party, clean out all the government Trust funds, steal as much as you can, lie about inflation, trash the dollar, the U’S.’s debt rating and fiscal futures of generations of Americans and, do it in the name of “economic stimulus”.

In 2008 politicians chose to have a print & spend party

From 2008 through 2019 (144 months)

  • Federal debt grew by 13.972 trillion from 8.86 trillion to 22.833 trillion
  • The Federal Reserve created 3.274 trillion dollars with keypunch entries
  • 13.972 trillion is more than 3 times the fiscal cost of World War II in 2021 USD
  • 13.972 trillion is more than the combined total debt of United Kingdom, Ireland, Australia, Mexico, China and Russia total population of these countries 1.816 billion, U.S., 331 million.

2020 through October 2021 (last 22 months) print & spend party 2

  • Federal debt grew by 6.072 trillion from 22,833 trillion to 28.905 trillion
  • The Federal Reserve created 4.315 trillion dollars with keypunch entries
  • 6.072 trillion in new Federal debt over the last 22 months is 86 billion more than the combined debt of Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Russia and India, population of these countries 1.918 billion, U.S. 331 million.
  • 6.072 trillion is more than 6 times the cost of FDR’s New Deal
Sources & Data Spreadsheet

Rational for shutting down the global economy, loss of personal freedom and increasing the Federal deficit by 6.072 trillion, a virus less lethal than obesity related illnesses.
 

Sources & Data Spreadsheet

U.S. debt versus other countries

Impact

Record deficit spending and the Fed’s creation of money caused the first U.S. debt downgrade in history by 2012,  as of 2012 11 countries had higher rated debt than the U.S. who then shared the same rating as Hong Kong and Finland.

With current spending and creation of money surpassing the 2008-2019 pace my peers and I expect U.S. debt to be downgraded prior to 2026. If our expectations are correct the U.S. debt rating will fall to A-, par with Japan, Latvia, Lithuania and Slovakia.

Should the Federal Government continue funding record deficit spending with created money at the current pace by 2026 the U.S debt market and dollar will collapse igniting a hyperinflationary Greater Depression.

Sources & data Spreadsheet

Greed, corruption and gross political incompetence during the 21st century has reduced annual Federal Revenue to a mere 11.16% of total federal debt, down from 35.98% at the end of 2000 and 28.69% in 2007.
 

1970 50.62%
1980 58.89%
1990 32.19%
2000 35.98%
2007 28.69%
2021 11.16%

Sources & Data Spreadsheet

An 11.16% annual Federal revenue to total Federal debt ratio makes it impossible for the U.S. to accurately report inflation, normalize interest rates or any increase in Federal expenses pegged to reported inflation such as Social Security, Medicare, Military and Civilian employee pensions.

Yes, the U.S is going to see the largest increase in Social Security beneficiary payments in 40 years (5.90% in 2022) but overall increases including the one on deck have not kept pace with true inflation, this increase does confirm inflation is here to stay or this 5.9% increase on in 2022 wouldn’t be happening.

The increase in Social Security payments also increases the shortfall in funds needed to meet beneficiary payments and pushes up the projected insolvency date for Social Security from 2035 to as early at 2030.

Military and Civilian employee pensions are also at risk of insolvency because the majority of all monies paid into all Governmental trusts and pensions by their beneficiaries has been borrowed out by the Federal Government, their liquidity replaced with “special issue non-marketable debt” that pays beneficiary Trusts noncompetitive rates. (Non-marketable = illiquid).

Sources & Data Spreadsheet

What it would take to replace the Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve currently buys 54.04% of all new Federal debt, trillions more in mortgage backed securities all at noncompetitive rates using money they’ve create with keypunch entries, these purchases have artificially contained interest rates since 2008.

Sources & Data Spreadsheet

Reported inflation is now running at 5.40%, true inflation north of 7.00% trying to sell record amounts of new Treasury debt in the Free market with these stats will be next to impossible. 

  • The worst debt rating in history (same as Finland & Hong Kong)
  • Further debt downgrades are on deck
  • A greater than 4.00% negative rate of return,
  • Denominated in a currency the Federal Reserve creates by the trillions at will

It’s going to take an average Treasury rate north 6.00% to as high as 8.70% to attract buyers in the Free market to buy all the new Treasury debt hitting the market. (8.70% was the average Treasury rate from 1970 through 2007) anything south of 6.00% with reported inflation at 5.40% will require the Federal Reserve to keep the printing press on.

Rates and Real Rates of Return 2008-2021

Sources & Data Spreadsheet

Rates and Real Rates of Return 1970-2007

Sources & Data Spreadsheet

If Treasury rates did normalize to the 1970 – 2007 average of 8.70%, Federal Debt service cost would increase from 538 billion to 2.483 trillion consuming 69.35% of total Federal revenue.
 

Sources & Data Spreadsheet

Impact of lower rates on debt service cost
 

From 2008 – 2020 Federal debt increased by 200.33% yet annual Federal debt service cost increased by only 30.90%. The Fed pushing rates lower has reduced Federal debt service cost by more than 3 trillion dollars since 2008.

  • Total Federal debt in 2007, 8.950 trillion, annual debt service cost 411.32 billion
  • Total Federal debt in 2020, 26.880 trillion, annual debt service cost 538.45 billion
Sources & Data Spreadsheet

Another Round of Economic Stimulus?

During the “economic stimulus of the Obama-Biden administration Federal debt increased by 9.169 trillion from 8.950 trillion to 18.120 trillion up 102.44%, 9.169 trillion is 721.308 billion more than the combined total debt of China and Russia.

Obama-Biden administration’s idea of clean energy

Methane gas capture, cost of production, 7 cents per kilowatt-hour (kWh) or 10 times the cost of hydroelectric power; farmers also receive a 4 cent per kilowatt-hour credit.

2021 “Economic Stimulus” taxes farmers, it begins at $1,800 per ton of emissions in 2023, rising at 5 percent per year above inflation escalating production cost which will be passed onto the consumer.

FDR’s idea of clean energy, multiple hydroelectric dams, the Hoover dam was one built during the New Deal.

The Hoover dam’s construction employed thousands of workers and cost 49 million dollars  according the BLS.GOV this translates into 981 million in 2021. Now in its 86th year of operation it continues to control flooding, provide water and clean energy to millions in Arizona, southern California, and southern Nevada. 

The Hoover Dam generates on average 4 billion kilowatt-hours of hydroelectric power each year. The plant has a rated capacity of 2,998,000 horsepower. See this Seeking Alpha Article for more on the comparisons of Obama-Biden stimulus programs to FDR’s new deal, what they cost and what they produced.

The 981 million dollar cost of the Hoover dam in 2021 dollars equates to a little less than 3 hours of average Federal Deficit spending over the last 22 months.

Adding to the current debt crisis, the projected insolvency of Medicare between 2024 and 2026.  

Sources & Data Spreadsheet

Projected insolvency of Social Security between 2030 and 2035.

Sources & Data Spreadsheet

The next mortgage crisis

You can’t have a 30 year mortgage rate at 3.01% when inflation is 5.40% without massive ongoing intervention by the Federal Reserve.

Sources & Data Spreadsheet

Since 2008 the Federal Reserve has purchased 2.526 trillion in mortgage backed securities with created money.

1.141 of the 2.526 rillion in the last 22 months, if this intervention slows or subsides the 30 year fixed rate will move north of 5.00%. I see mortgage debt owned by the Federal Reserve escalating past 4 trillion by 2026.

To monitor the Federal Reserve’s purchases of mortgage debt see this Fed link.

Sources & Data Spreadsheet

Higher rates will fuel the mortgage delinquency rates higher from the current 2.49%. By 2026 I see the delinquency rate north of 5.00%.

To monitor the mortgage delinquency rate see this Fed link.

Sources & Data Spreadsheet

Foreign Held Treasury debt

Currently over 7.02 trillion of U.S. Federal debt is held by foreign entities, all have their finger on the sell trigger.

Ask yourself would you maintain your position in a debt instrument of this country or liquidate it?

  • The country’s annual Federal revenue is at 11.16% of total Federal debt
  • Reported inflation at 5.40%, true inflation north of 7.00%
  • Has guaranteed negative rate of return greater than 4.00%
  • Was falling in price (rates rise treasuries prices fall)
  • Ongoing obscene deficit spending
  • Zero ability to balance the budget
  • Zero ability the permanently cease the creation of money
  • This Government uses its central bank as a front to buy 54.04% of its own new debt using money created by its central bank.
  • Another mortgage crisis on deck
  • Facing insolvency of nearly every Government program by 2035
  • Wants to spend another 1.5 to 5 trillion after the last 60.888 trillion spent since 2008 didn’t produce anything more than a 19.917 trillion dollar bill for future generations of Americans to pay off.

When this Fed chart turns lower aggressive selling of U.S. dollars and debt will engage as foreign investors repatriate and reallocate funds to tangible assets, quality stocks and/or any of the 11 countries that have a higher debt rating than the U.S. 

Sources & Data Spreadsheet

The buyer of last resort is already in play, the Federal Reserve will continue to create unprecedented amounts of money backed by nothing to try and cauterize the fiscal hemorrhages on horizon, creation of money = inflation.

Sources & Data Spreadsheet

There is no one to replace the Federal Reserve and the Federal Government can’t afford to raise rates high enough to make Treasury debt attractive enough for the Free market to voluntarily take over 100% of deficit funding.

In 2021 without the Federal Reserve creating trillions to buy the majority of all new Federal debt the Federal Government would be insolvent.

I see total money created by the Federal Reserve increasing from the current 8.56 trillion to more than 13 trillion by 2026. 

To monitor creation of money see this Fed chart.

Sources & Data Spreadsheet

Since 2008

  • 40.970 trillion in cumulative Federal Revenue
  • 60.888 trillion in cumulative Federal Spending
  • 19.917 trillion in new Federal debt
  • 7.590 trillion created by the Federal Reserve with keypunch entries
  • Cumulative median personal income 2008-2021 $684,478
  • Federal Revenue per employed person $277,670
  • Federal revenue as a percent of median income 40.69%
  • Federal spending per employed person $412,654
  • Federal spending as a percent of median income 60.46%
  • New Federal debt per employed person $134,985
  • Money created by the Federal Reserve per employed person $51,441

Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of & SHORT either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: I run a family office, I am not located in the United States nor am I licensed to handle U.S. retail accounts, nor do I sell an advisory service. My services are limited to non U.S. clients and individual U.S. clients that have a net worth of 2 million or more (excluding primary residence) with an existing account of $250,000 or more, U.S. institutions a net of 5 million or more with an existing account of $500,000 or more. Compensation is based on 10.00% of net new high profits quarterly, zero front loads, zero management fees.

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1) Simplified Trend Qualification Procedure

1.01) If price action is above the red line and red is above blue = long.
1.02) Risk on long positions, if red moves below blue exit the trade.
1.03) If price action is below the red line and red is below blue = short.
1.04) Risk on short positions, if red moves above blue exit the trade.
1.05) Same rules apply for all time periods using 1 hour to weekly bars.
Prices are updated every 10 minutes, if you have questions contact me.

Chart We’re using daily price bars on the chart below for short-term trades, this same procedure will work using any time frame from 15 minutes bars to monthly bars, it depends on whether your objective is trading intra-day, short, medium, or long-term, ATAs can be set up to trade all time periods or any combination of time periods.

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General Information on Futures and Futures Options

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3.03) What is a Futures contract?
3.04) What is an Equity Index Futures
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3.06) Definition of Margin
3.07)
The Benefits of Futures Margins

3.08) Fundamentals and Equity Index Futures
3.09)
Who Uses Equity Index Products?

3.10) Why Trade Futures instead of ETFs?
3.11)
Hedging and Risk Management for Equity Index Futures

3.12) Trading Opportunities in Equity Index Futures
3
.13) How to Trade Select Sectors
3.14)
Explaining Call Options (Short and Long)
3.15) Explaining Put Options (Short and Long)
3.16) Trading Options During Economic Events
3.17) Option Collars what they are and the basics of how they work
3.18) Working Example of Collaring a Position
3.19) Equity Index Daily & Final Settlement

3.20) Rolling an Equity Position Using Spreads
3.21) What is Equity Index Basis?
3.22) Equity Index Notional Value and Price
3.23) The Importance of Depth (Volume)
3.24) Equity Intermarket Spreads
3.25) Implied Liquidity in Select Sector Futures
3.26
) Influence of Pricing on the Option for Equity Traders

3.27) Why Options on Futures Gives Added Benefit of Diversifying Risk
3.28) Alpha/Beta and Portable Alpha
3.29) Cash Equitization – Cash Drag in the Cross Hairs
3.30) Transition Management using Stock Index Futures
3.31) Beta Replication and Smart Beta
3.32) Additional Educational Information on Stock Indices

If you have questions or contact me.

Regards,
Peter Knight Advisor

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