Author: Asset Investment Management

Family Office, Advisors

260504 positions, 260505 stops, reversals & objectives

Intraday Quotes 
S&P 500 NASDAQ Dow  Gold Silver 
Copper  Platinum Bitcoin Crude  Gasoline
Swiss Euro  Dollar Yen
How to track trades
 Performance Historical Trade Reports
 
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JUN26 MINI SP 500       1847 Trading days from 190102 to 260504

Running .DAT file ESN011.DAT

Last trading day was 260504   Closing price was 7230.2500

Current V value is 132.750000 (531 ticks)  K1 value is 0.41
V*K1 for tomorrow is 54.427500 (218 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 7284.7500  SellStop is 7175.7500

Protective stop price is 8203.5000
Profit objective price is 6891.5000

V is less than high filter value of 1750
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently short 1 contract(s) at 7203.5000
Open trade equity is -1337.50

From 190102 total profit is 312712.50
            current drawdown is -11212.50
            maximum drawdown was -31150.00
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JUN26 MICRO SP 500       1847 Trading days from 190102 to 260504

Running .DAT file ESM004.DAT

Last trading day was 260504   Closing price was 7230.2500

Current V value is 132.750000 (531 ticks)  K1 value is 0.41
V*K1 for tomorrow is 54.427500 (218 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 7284.7500  SellStop is 7175.7500

Protective stop price is 17203.5000
Profit objective price is 6891.5000

V is less than high filter value of 1750
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently short 1 contract(s) at 7203.5000
Open trade equity is -133.75

From 190102 total profit is 16781.25
            current drawdown is -1350.00
            maximum drawdown was -4791.25
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JUN26 MINI NASDAQ 100       1847 Trading days from 190102 to 260504

Running .DAT file NQN002.DAT

Last trading day was 260504   Closing price was 27776.0000

Current V value is 1284.000000 (5136 ticks)  K1 value is 0.43
V*K1 for tomorrow is 552.120000 (2208 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 28337.0000  SellStop is 27232.7500

V is less than high filter value of 5300
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently flat

From 190102 total profit is 443925.00
            current drawdown is -20610.00
            maximum drawdown was -41970.00
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JUN26 MICRO NASDAQ 100       1847 Trading days from 190102 to 260504

Running .DAT file NQM008.DAT

Last trading day was 260504   Closing price was 27776.0000

Current V value is 1284.000000 (5136 ticks)  K1 value is 0.43
V*K1 for tomorrow is 552.120000 (2208 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 28337.0000  SellStop is 27232.7500

V is less than high filter value of 5300
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently flat

From 190102 total profit is 37687.50
            current drawdown is -2241.00
            maximum drawdown was -4332.00
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JUN26 DOW FUTURES       1847 Trading days from 190102 to 260504

Running .DAT file YMN016.DAT

Last trading day was 260504   Closing price was 49079.0000

Current V value is 2604.000000 (2604 ticks)  K1 value is 0.26
V*K1 for tomorrow is 677.040000 (677 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 49945.0000  SellStop is 48591.0000

Protective stop price is 59079.0000
Profit objective price is 44825.0000

V is less than high filter value of 9999
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently short 1 contract(s) at 49085.0000
Open trade equity is 30.00

From 190102 total profit is 254045.00
            current drawdown is -3800.00
            maximum drawdown was -18315.00
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JUN26 MICRO DOW FUTURES       1847 Trading days from 190102 to 260504

Running .DAT file YMM015.DAT

Last trading day was 260504   Closing price was 49079.0000

Current V value is 2604.000000 (2604 ticks)  K1 value is 0.27
V*K1 for tomorrow is 703.080000 (703 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 50003.0000  SellStop is 48597.0000

Protective stop price is 52329.0000
Profit objective price is 44479.0000

V is less than high filter value of 6440
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently short 1 contract(s) at 49079.0000
Open trade equity is 0.00

From 190102 total profit is 18580.50
            current drawdown is -428.00
            maximum drawdown was -2361.50
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JUN26 GOLD 100       1846 Trading days from 190102 to 260504

Running .DAT file GC1005.DAT

Last trading day was 260504   Closing price was 4533.2998

Current V value is 140.500000 (14050 ticks)  K1 value is 0.80
V*K1 for tomorrow is 112.400000 (11240 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 4692.7500  SellStop is 4467.9500

V is equal to or greater than high filter value of 8350
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High filter does not permit trading for tomorrow

Currently flat

From 190102 total profit is 297612.00
            current drawdown is -9516.00
            maximum drawdown was -27150.00
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JUN26 MINI GOLD 50       1846 Trading days from 190102 to 260504

Running .DAT file GC2014.DAT

Last trading day was 260504   Closing price was 4533.2998

Current V value is 108.922905 (10892 ticks)  K1 value is 0.86
V*K1 for tomorrow is 93.673698 (9367 ticks)

BuyStop and SellStop computation requires tomorrow's Open

V is equal to or greater than high filter value of 8550
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High filter does not permit trading for tomorrow

Currently flat

From 190102 total profit is 156606.50
            current drawdown is 0.00
            maximum drawdown was -14128.00
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JUL26 MICRO GOLD 10       1846 Trading days from 190102 to 260504

Running .DAT file GC3010.DAT

Last trading day was 260504   Closing price was 4533.2998

Current V value is 169.000000 (16900 ticks)  K1 value is 0.63
V*K1 for tomorrow is 106.470000 (10647 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 4671.1400  SellStop is 4458.2000

V is equal to or greater than high filter value of 8925
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High filter does not permit trading for tomorrow

Currently flat

From 190102 total profit is 21058.60
            current drawdown is -789.70
            maximum drawdown was -2478.50
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JUL26 5000 COMEX SILVER       1846 Trading days from 190102 to 260504

Running .DAT file SI1005.DAT

Last trading day was 260504   Closing price was 73.5220

Current V value is 3.930000 (3930 ticks)  K1 value is 0.51
V*K1 for tomorrow is 2.004300 (2004 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 75.5260  SellStop is 71.5180

Protective stop price is 91.5220
Profit objective price is 60.9050

V is less than high filter value of 6775
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently short 1 contract(s) at 74.3450
Open trade equity is 4114.98

From 190102 total profit is 805310.00
            current drawdown is -33404.99
            maximum drawdown was -43100.00
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JUL26 2500 COMEX SILVER       1846 Trading days from 190102 to 260504

Running .DAT file SI2005.DAT

Last trading day was 260504   Closing price was 73.5220

Current V value is 3.930000 (3930 ticks)  K1 value is 0.51
V*K1 for tomorrow is 2.004300 (2004 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 75.5260  SellStop is 71.5180

Protective stop price is 93.5220
Profit objective price is 60.9050

V is less than high filter value of 6775
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently short 1 contract(s) at 74.3450
Open trade equity is 2057.49

From 190102 total profit is 381655.00
            current drawdown is -16927.49
            maximum drawdown was -21625.00
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MAY26 1000 COMEX SILVER       1846 Trading days from 190102 to 260504

Running .DAT file SI3005.DAT

Last trading day was 260504   Closing price was 73.5220

Current V value is 3.930000 (3930 ticks)  K1 value is 0.51
V*K1 for tomorrow is 2.004300 (2004 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 75.5260  SellStop is 71.5180

Protective stop price is 123.5220
Profit objective price is 61.1450

V is less than high filter value of 6775
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently short 1 contract(s) at 74.3450
Open trade equity is 823.00

From 190102 total profit is 126262.00
            current drawdown is -7041.00
            maximum drawdown was -8740.00
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JUL26 COPPER 25000       1846 Trading days from 190102 to 260504

Running .DAT file HG1005.DAT

Last trading day was 260504   Closing price was 5.8465

Current V value is 0.362000 (7240 ticks)  K1 value is 0.30
V*K1 for tomorrow is 0.108600 (2172 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 5.9551  SellStop is 5.7379

V is equal to or greater than high filter value of 4525
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High filter does not permit trading for tomorrow

Currently flat

From 190102 total profit is 142802.50
            current drawdown is -3722.50
            maximum drawdown was -14852.50
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JUL26 MINI COPPER 12500       1846 Trading days from 190102 to 260504

Running .DAT file HG2001.DAT

Last trading day was 260504   Closing price was 5.8465

Current V value is 0.362000 (7240 ticks)  K1 value is 0.30
V*K1 for tomorrow is 0.108600 (2172 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 5.9551  SellStop is 5.7379

V is equal to or greater than high filter value of 4525
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High filter does not permit trading for tomorrow

Currently flat

From 190102 total profit is 61614.37
            current drawdown is -3448.75
            maximum drawdown was -7941.25
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OCT26 PLATINUM 50       1846 Trading days from 190102 to 260504

Running .DAT file PLA008.DAT

Last trading day was 260504   Closing price was 1981.7000

Current V value is 83.600098 (8360 ticks)  K1 value is 0.46
V*K1 for tomorrow is 38.456045 (3846 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 2034.6900  SellStop is 1957.7800

V is equal to or greater than high filter value of 3850
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High filter does not permit trading for tomorrow

Currently flat

From 190102 total profit is 112061.50
            current drawdown is -807.50
            maximum drawdown was -10832.00
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JUN26 1000 CRUDE OIL       1846 Trading days from 190102 to 260504

Running .DAT file CL1012.DAT

Last trading day was 260504   Closing price was 106.4200

Current V value is 11.779999 (1178 ticks)  K1 value is 0.50
V*K1 for tomorrow is 5.889999 (589 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 112.3100  SellStop is 100.5300

Protective stop price is 56.8800
Profit objective price is 120.9200

V is less than high filter value of 1500
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 105.8200
Open trade equity is 600.00

From 190102 total profit is 234600.01
            current drawdown is 0.00
            maximum drawdown was -16990.00
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JUN26 500 CRUDE OIL       1846 Trading days from 190102 to 260504

Running .DAT file CL2010.DAT

Last trading day was 260504   Closing price was 106.4200

Current V value is 11.779999 (1178 ticks)  K1 value is 0.50
V*K1 for tomorrow is 5.889999 (589 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 112.3100  SellStop is 100.5300

Protective stop price is 6.8800
Profit objective price is 120.9200

V is less than high filter value of 1500
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 105.8200
Open trade equity is 300.00

From 190102 total profit is 111400.00
            current drawdown is 0.00
            maximum drawdown was -8700.00
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OCT26 42000 GASLOINE       1846 Trading days from 190102 to 260504

Running .DAT file RBN005.DAT

Last trading day was 260504   Closing price was 2.9085

Current V value is 0.183400 (1834 ticks)  K1 value is 0.50
V*K1 for tomorrow is 0.091700 (917 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 3.0002  SellStop is 2.8168

V is equal to or greater than high filter value of 1700
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High filter does not permit trading for tomorrow

Currently flat

From 190102 total profit is 222859.21
            current drawdown is 0.00
            maximum drawdown was -14938.40
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MAY26 MICRO BITCOIN       1847 Trading days from 190102 to 260504

Running .DAT file BTC022.DAT

Last trading day was 260504   Closing price was 80390.0000

Current V value is 3175.000000 (3175 ticks)  K1 value is 0.56
V*K1 for tomorrow is 1778.000000 (1778 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 81891.0000  SellStop is 78335.0000

Protective stop price is 68640.0000
Profit objective price is 107681.0000

V is less than high filter value of 7210
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 77681.0000
Open trade equity is 270.90

From 190102 total profit is 24614.70
            current drawdown is -1969.60
            maximum drawdown was -3038.00
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JUN26 1250000 YEN       1847 Trading days from 190102 to 260504

Running .DAT file J6N012.DAT

Last trading day was 260504   Closing price was 0.6400

Current V value is 0.020900 (209 ticks)  K1 value is 0.69
V*K1 for tomorrow is 0.014421 (144 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 0.6544  SellStop is 0.6256

Protective stop price is 0.6182
Profit objective price is 0.6545

V is less than high filter value of 9999
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 0.6329
Open trade equity is 887.50

From 190102 total profit is 64756.24
            current drawdown is -2431.25
            maximum drawdown was -9943.74
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JUN26 100000 DOLLAR INDEX       1882 Trading days from 190102 to 260504

Running .DAT file DXX016.DAT

Last trading day was 260504   Closing price was 98.2620

Current V value is 1.257004 (12570 ticks)  K1 value is 0.42
V*K1 for tomorrow is 0.527942 (5279 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 98.7899  SellStop is 97.7341

Protective stop price is 99.4440
Profit objective price is 94.5944

V is equal to or greater than high filter value of 8750
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High filter does not permit trading for tomorrow

Currently short 1 contract(s) at 98.4944
Open trade equity is 232.40

From 190102 total profit is 29254.59
            current drawdown is -1322.01
            maximum drawdown was -5535.50
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JUN26 125000 EURO FX       1847 Trading days from 190102 to 260504

Running .DAT file E6N015.DAT

Last trading day was 260504   Closing price was 1.1719

Current V value is 0.018600 (186 ticks)  K1 value is 0.42
V*K1 for tomorrow is 0.007812 (78 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 1.1798  SellStop is 1.1641

Protective stop price is 1.1556
Profit objective price is 1.1972

V is less than high filter value of 225
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 1.1596
Open trade equity is 1543.75

From 190102 total profit is 72218.75
            current drawdown is -2018.74
            maximum drawdown was -7062.50
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JUN26 62500 EUR0 FX MINI       1847 Trading days from 190102 to 260504

Running .DAT file E7M008.DAT

Last trading day was 260504   Closing price was 1.1719

Current V value is 0.018600 (186 ticks)  K1 value is 0.42
V*K1 for tomorrow is 0.007812 (78 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 1.1798  SellStop is 1.1641

Protective stop price is 1.1554
Profit objective price is 1.1972

V is less than high filter value of 225
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 1.1596
Open trade equity is 771.87

From 190102 total profit is 33434.37
            current drawdown is -1034.37
            maximum drawdown was -3881.25
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JUN26 125000 SWISS FRANC       1847 Trading days from 190102 to 260504

Running .DAT file S6N003.DAT

Last trading day was 260504   Closing price was 1.2824

Current V value is 0.009642 (96 ticks)  K1 value is 1.25
V*K1 for tomorrow is 0.012052 (121 ticks)

BuyStop and SellStop computation requires tomorrow's Open

Protective stop price is 0.8918
Profit objective price is 1.3250

V is less than high filter value of 125
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 1.2714
Open trade equity is 1375.00

From 190102 total profit is 91525.01
            current drawdown is 0.00
            maximum drawdown was -9587.51
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If you have questions contact me. 

Peter Knight
Direct +1-340-244-4310
Voice & Video Chats.
Message me

 

 

Disclosure

Top 50 Update April

These 50 allocations utilize up to 24 automated programs executing long/short momentum strategies across four asset classes. Each of the 24 models employs a disciplined exit protocol: if volatility spikes or momentum stalls, the system shifts to cash until market noise clears and a trend re-emerges.

Track trades as they occur onsite, track them on X,  order history, closing commentary 

1) Top 50 allocations, minimums $25,000 to $500,000 USD or major equivalent.

Web-Page Minimum Net Profit Per Unit Last 12 Months R/R Max-Draw
0159 $25,000 $159,942 $30,920 28.64 -$5,585
0204 $25,000 $208,169 $38,109 29.67 -$7,017
0216 $30,000 $232,979 $48,097 30.29 -$7,692
0233 $30,000 $234,185 $40,007 31.39 -$7,462
0261 $30,000 $266,106 $49,661 31.33 -$8,493
0269 $35,000 $273,504 $42,905 36.87 -$7,419
0303 $35,000 $323,363 $64,686 35.40 -$9,135
0344 $35,000 $361,070 $66,706 35.21 -$10,255
0361 $40,000 $378,236 $68,077 37.06 -$10,206
0377 $40,000 $397,244 $73,154 38.22 -$10,394
0386 $40,000 $406,428 $76,320 34.84 -$11,665
0406 $50,000 $412,064 $65,016 42.77 -$9,635
0458 $50,000 $478,190 $90,957 40.97 -$11,671
0492 $50,000 $519,641 $94,214 37.95 -$13,692
0509 $75,000 $520,709 $141,457 32.65 -$15,946
0651 $75,000 $670,389 $154,437 46.17 -$14,521
0719 $75,000 $749,611 $179,415 44.69 -$16,775
0797 $100,000 $832,911 $190,991 48.12 -$17,309
0845 $100,000 $884,466 $192,906 48.72 -$18,153
0867 $100,000 $906,982 $194,778 52.59 -$17,246
0902 $100,000 $936,473 $202,468 52.50 -$17,839
0946 $100,000 $987,557 $221,068 48.03 -$20,561
1140 $125,000 $1,197,759 $244,172 53.50 -$22,387
1186 $125,000 $1,252,225 $254,158 49.95 -$25,069
1264 $125,000 $1,333,548 $270,385 47.82 -$27,885
1286 $150,000 $1,353,697 $270,735 52.67 -$25,699
1371 $150,000 $1,438,793 $352,289 61.41 -$23,430
1408 $150,000 $1,467,219 $294,030 53.08 -$27,642
1587 $200,000 $1,648,937 $434,702 49.87 -$33,066
1673 $200,000 $1,768,767 $368,885 70.28 -$25,167
1791 $200,000 $1,900,535 $386,262 70.38 -$27,004
1844 $200,000 $1,920,174 $392,286 66.63 -$28,820
1957 $250,000 $2,029,768 $499,155 57.33 -$35,403
2083 $250,000 $2,252,197 $534,881 71.71 -$31,408
2207 $250,000 $2,298,153 $544,681 63.07 -$36,437
2399 $250,000 $2,490,271 $574,989 68.89 -$36,150
2510 $300,000 $2,578,815 $586,730 72.98 -$35,335
2684 $300,000 $2,787,698 $685,032 73.00 -$38,187
2763 $300,000 $2,871,612 $713,745 77.83 -$36,898
3104 $300,000 $3,174,579 $644,542 73.04 -$43,461
3254 $350,000 $3,492,787 $858,251 79.21 -$44,094
3529 $350,000 $3,767,304 $901,767 78.78 -$47,820
3658 $350,000 $3,919,841 $960,571 79.45 -$49,339
3747 $400,000 $3,947,043 $949,765 80.44 -$49,067
4048 $400,000 $4,213,847 $990,477 81.34 -$51,807
4135 $400,000 $4,350,430 $959,317 74.00 -$58,790
4349 $450,000 $4,550,049 $1,199,433 76.35 -$59,595
4649 $450,000 $4,714,594 $1,132,270 75.25 -$62,651
4573 $450,000 $4,876,757 $1,167,332 79.28 -$61,509
4744 $500,000 $4,962,944 $1,186,442 82.00 -$60,526
4909 $500,000 $5,076,532 $1,188,677 82.82 -$61,296
5220 $500,000 $5,536,003 $1,269,880 78.79 -$70,265
Net profit = Trading one unit net of all brokerage and fees, withdrawing all profit annually
Maximum drawdown = Highest daily high to lowest daily low prior to recovery to a new high
R/R Ratio = Cumulative net profit per unit divided by maximum highest high to lowest low drawdown
Disclosure

2) Track trades in any allocation as they occur

2.1) Current positions, today’s stops, reversals and profit objectives
2.2) 2019-2025 monthly & annual performance trading all 24 active VBO models 
2.3) Disclosure of strategy by market & model, all data, orders & trades 2019-2026 
2.4) Top 100,000 allocation summaries
2.5) How to create your own allocation
2.6) Register  for information on other top programs

3) Structure and Account Opening Procedure

3.1) ATA Fee Structure
3.2 Defining Overall Risk For Your Account
3.3) How Balances Are Guaranteed Plus or Minus Trading
3.4) Schedule an online review
3.5) How To Open An Account

3) Educational videos and resources

3.01)  Futures General Information
3.02) Options General Information
3.03)  Stock Index Futures
3.04) Interest Rate Futures
3.05)  Metals Futures
3.06)  Energy Futures
3.07)  Currency Futures
3.08)  CME Learning Center
3.09)  Futures Fundamentals
3.10) Education Material
3.11)  Resource Center
3.12) Research Reports
3.13)  Podcasts
3.14) Monthly FX Review
3.15) Media Room
3.16)  Economic reports & data

If you’d like to learn more about Automated Trading Accounts (ATAs) contact me. My current date & time is May 10, 2026 8:21 am I’m available from 7 am to 7 pm Monday through Thursday, 7 am to 2 pm on Fridays, off hours text or onsite message me with a call back date and time (please use your local time zone).

Peter Knight
Contact Information

 

Disclosure

Settlement Commentary 260501

Following a highly volatile week, U.S. markets began the month with a dramatic intraday reversal. While the morning was fueled by a “Goldilocks” reaction to the Non-Farm Payrolls miss—which initially sent yields lower and pushed the Dow within 12 points of the historic 50,000 mark—the rally ultimately failed. Sellers aggressively took control in the afternoon as investors digested the “rot” beneath the jobs report, specifically the 400,000-person exit from the workforce and a disappointing Manufacturing PMI. With the Strait of Hormuz blockade remaining a persistent “war premium” over the weekend, capital rotated into defensive cash and the Dollar Index, leaving indices in a precarious double-top formation heading into Monday.   
x
STOCK INDICES
x
ES S&P 500
      • Intraday Reversal: The index surrendered morning gains as the “bad news is good news” jobs reaction soured into broader concerns about labor force participation.
      • Tech Divergence: While Alphabet and Amazon provided a structural floor, the broader index was dragged down by industrial and energy components sensitive to the 50,000 Dow rejection.
      • Weekend De-risking: Institutional traders favored liquidating long positions ahead of the weekend to hedge against potential geopolitical escalations in the Middle East.

Technicals
      • Today: 88% Buy
      • Yesterday: 88% Buy
      • Last Week: 72% Buy
      • Last Month: 72% Sell

NQ NASDAQ 100
      • Growth Outperformance: The Nasdaq remained the relative winner today, as the 175k jobs print (below expectations) eased the immediate pressure on long-term Treasury yields.
      • AI Infrastructure Bid: High-conviction buying remains concentrated in the “AI physical layer”—Intel, Apple, and Tesla—despite the broader market’s afternoon stumble.
      • Yield Sensitivity: The tech benchmark is tracking the 10-year yield closely, finding a tactical floor as the market reprices the Fed’s 2026 terminal rate.

Technicals
      • Today: 80% Buy
      • Yesterday: 72% Buy
      • Last Week: 40% Buy
      • Last Month: 88% Buy

YM Dow Jones
      • Psychological Rejection: The Dow failed at 49,988—just 12 points shy of 50,000—forming a sharp intraday double-top that signaled a total exhaustion of buyers.
      • Manufacturing PMI Miss: A disappointing manufacturing print reinforced fears of a domestic industrial slowdown, weighing heavily on the 30-stock average.
      • Labor Force Rot: Market participants focused on the 400,000-person workforce exit, viewing the lower unemployment rate as a “false positive” for economic health.

Technicals
      • Today: 72% Buy
      • Yesterday: 40% Buy
      • Last Week: 100% Sell
      • Last Month: 100% Sell

QR Russell 2000
      • Rate-Cut Repricing: Small-caps initially surged on the weak jobs data but faded as the market realized a slowing economy hits smaller firms’ bottom lines first.
      • Regional Bank Jitters: Easing yields provided some relief, but the Russell remains pinned by the high cost of refinancing for debt-heavy small businesses.
      • Volatility Proxy: The index is currently serving as the “canary in the coal mine” for a potential second-half domestic recession.

Technicals
      • Today: 40% Buy
      • Yesterday: 8% Sell
      • Last Week: 100% Sell
      • Last Month: 8% Buy
METALS
x
GC Gold 100
      • NFP Tailwind: Gold reclaimed the $4,600 level as the weaker jobs data and falling yields revived the metal’s appeal as a non-yielding safe haven.
      • Weekend Hedge: Traders are layering into gold as the primary insurance policy against a “Saturday Surprise” in the Strait of Hormuz conflict.
      • Dollar Inverse: The late-day slide in the DX provided the necessary currency tailwind for gold to finish the week in a position of strength.

Technicals
      • Today: 72% Sell
      • Yesterday: 100% Sell
      • Last Week: 100% Buy
      • Last Month: 100% Buy

SI Silver 5000
      • High-Beta Recovery: Silver outperformed gold on the bounce, tracking the recovery in industrial sentiment following the initial yield drop.
      • Solar Demand Anchor: Structural demand for silver in renewable energy infrastructure remains a persistent long-term bid regardless of weekly jobs prints.
      • Relative Value Play: Speculators are moving back into silver as the gold-to-silver ratio suggests the white metal is “undervalued” at current conflict premiums.

Technicals
      • Today: 56% Sell
      • Yesterday: 88% Sell
      • Last Week: 100% Buy
      • Last Month: 100% Buy

HG Copper 25K
      • Infrastructure Resilience: Despite the manufacturing PMI miss, copper is holding steady due to the massive supply deficit in the electrification sector.
      • Logistics Premium: Potential blockades in shipping lanes are keeping physical copper stockpiles at multi-year lows in major LME warehouses.
      • China Demand Proxy: Traders are looking through U.S. data toward the continued industrial profit growth in China as the primary copper floor.

Technicals
      • Today: 100% Buy
      • Yesterday: 100% Buy
      • Last Week: 100% Buy
      • Last Month: 100% Buy
ENERGY
x
CL Crude Oil
      • Strait Blockade Floor: Crude remains pegged above $103 as the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues to keep 10 million barrels a day at risk.
      • Supply Chain Stress: While the afternoon rally in stocks failed, oil held its “war premium” as physical shortages begin to manifest in Asian markets.
      • SPR Refill Narrative: Intentions to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve are providing a “soft floor” for WTI near the $95-$100 level.

Technicals
      • Today: 100% Buy
      • Yesterday: 100% Buy
      • Last Week: 100% Buy
      • Last Month: 48% Buy

NG Natural Gas
      • Power Gen Demand: Increased demand for gas in electricity generation is offsetting the mild weather patterns seen across the U.S.
      • Export Expansion: New LNG terminals are successfully integrating domestic gas with higher-priced global markets, stabilizing the price floor.
      • Producer Discipline: Major drillers have successfully signaled a reduction in capital expenditure, curbing the oversupply fears from earlier this year.

Technicals
      • Today: 56% Buy
      • Yesterday: 40% Buy
      • Last Week: 72% Sell
      • Last Month: 100% Sell
CURRENCIES
x
DX 100,000 USD
      • Safe-Haven Pivot: The Dollar Index saw a late-day bounce as the rally in indices failed, re-establishing the greenback as the “safety trade” for the weekend.
      • Yield Divergence: Despite the NFP miss, U.S. real yields remain significantly higher than European and Japanese counterparts, supporting the DX floor.
      • Reserve Liquidity: The USD remains the only liquid option for global traders hedging against a potential total closure of Middle East shipping lanes.

Technicals
      • Today: 100% Buy
      • Yesterday: 100% Buy
      • Last Week: 100% Buy
      • Last Month: 100% Buy

J6 12.5 M JPY
      • Intervention Fallout: The Yen remains highly volatile following Japan’s massive intervention at the 160 level; traders are wary of further BOJ moves.
      • Carry Trade Risk: Lower U.S. yields today are making the JPY carry trade less attractive, sparking a minor tactical short-squeeze.
      • Energy Deficit: High oil prices remain the primary fundamental drag on the Yen, as Japan’s energy import costs continue to balloon.

Technicals
      • Today: 100% Sell
      • Yesterday: 100% Sell
      • Last Week: 100% Sell
      • Last Month: 100% Sell
INTEREST RATES
x
ZT 2-Year T-Note
      • NFP Correction: 2-year yields fell sharply as the “cooler” jobs print caused the market to re-price a more patient Federal Reserve.
      • Employment Rot: Fixed-income traders are focusing on the shrinking workforce as a sign that the Fed’s “higher for longer” policy is finally breaking the labor market.
      • Liquidity Inflow: Short-term debt is seeing a “flight to quality” as equity market volatility spikes.

Technicals
      • Today: 100% Sell
      • Yesterday: 100% Sell
      • Last Week: 100% Sell
      • Last Month: 100% Sell
AGRICULTURAL
x
ZC Corn
      • Ethanol Bid: Surging crude prices are keeping ethanol blending highly profitable, providing a structural bid for domestic corn.
      • Planting Progress: Favorable weather across the corn belt is allowing for a smooth start to the season, capping some of the supply-side upside.
      • Export Sentiment: A weaker dollar mid-day helped spur some international corn interest from Latin American and Asian buyers.

Technicals
      • Today: 100% Buy
      • Yesterday: 100% Buy
      • Last Week: 100% Buy
      • Last Month: 100% Buy

KC Coffee
      • Supply Chain Risk: High transport and fuel costs are being passed through to the retail level, keeping coffee prices in a bullish corridor.
      • Brazil Harvest Fears: Continued downward revisions in Brazilian yield forecasts are maintaining the scarcity premium for high-end beans.
      • Inelastic Demand: Despite the macro slowdown, coffee remains a resilient daily necessity for global consumers.

Technicals
    • Today: 100% Buy
    • Yesterday: 100% Buy
    • Last Week: 100% Buy
    • Last Month: 100% Buy
CC Cocoa
      • Structural Deficits: Chronic production shortfalls in West Africa remain the primary driver of cocoa’s historic multi-year rally.
      • Inventory Scarcity: Global cocoa stockpiles are at multi-decade lows, leaving the market extremely sensitive to even minor logistical disruptions.
      • Price Pass-Through: Industrial chocolate manufacturers are continuing to pay record premiums to secure limited physical supplies for processing.

Technicals
      • Today: 100% Buy
      • Yesterday: 100% Buy
      • Last Week: 100% Buy
      • Last Month: 100% Buy

OJ Orange Juice
      • Florida Yield Crisis: Continued downward revisions in regional orange production estimates are keeping the market in a deep structural deficit.
      • Logistical Squeeze: Surging transportation costs and fuel surcharges are pushing retail orange juice prices to new 2026 highs.
      • Substitution Limits: High prices have yet to trigger significant “demand destruction,” as consumers view OJ as a morning staple.

Technicals
      • Today: 100% Buy
      • Yesterday: 100% Buy
      • Last Week: 100% Buy
      • Last Month: 100% Buy

LB Lumber
      • Housing Resilience Proxy: Lumber is tracking the surprising resilience in new home starts, despite the “higher-for-longer” interest rate environment.
      • Cost-Push Pressure: Rising energy and labor costs are increasing the minimum production cost for major mills, preventing a price collapse.
      • Rate Headwinds: The late-day spike in bond market volatility remains a headwind for lumber, as mortgage rates threaten to slow long-term housing momentum.

Technicals
      • Today: 100% Sell
      • Yesterday: 100% Sell
      • Last Week: 100% Sell
      • Last Month: 24% Buy
EMA technical analysis page for all markets above

If you have questions contact me. 

Peter Knight
Voice & Video Chats.
Message me

 

 

Disclosure

260501 positions, 260504 stops, reversals & objectives

Intraday Quotes 
S&P 500 NASDAQ Dow  Gold Silver 
Copper  Platinum Bitcoin Crude  Gasoline
Swiss Euro  Dollar Yen
How to track trades
 Performance Historical Trade Reports
 
.................................................................

JUN26 MINI SP 500       1846 Trading days from 190102 to 260501

Running .DAT file ESN011.DAT

Last trading day was 260501   Closing price was 7258.0000

Current V value is 132.750000 (531 ticks)  K1 value is 0.41
V*K1 for tomorrow is 54.427500 (218 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 7312.5000  SellStop is 7203.5000

Protective stop price is 6258.0000
Profit objective price is 7532.0000

V is less than high filter value of 1750
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 7220.0000
Open trade equity is 1900.00

From 190102 total profit is 316825.00
            current drawdown is -10337.50
            maximum drawdown was -31150.00
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 MICRO SP 500       1846 Trading days from 190102 to 260501

Running .DAT file ESM004.DAT

Last trading day was 260501   Closing price was 7258.0000

Current V value is 132.750000 (531 ticks)  K1 value is 0.41
V*K1 for tomorrow is 54.427500 (218 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 7312.5000  SellStop is 7203.5000

Protective stop price is 0.0000
Profit objective price is 7532.0000

V is less than high filter value of 1750
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 7220.0000
Open trade equity is 190.00

From 190102 total profit is 17237.50
            current drawdown is -1217.50
            maximum drawdown was -4791.25
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 MINI NASDAQ 100       1846 Trading days from 190102 to 260501

Running .DAT file NQN002.DAT

Last trading day was 260501   Closing price was 27835.7500

Current V value is 1365.250000 (5461 ticks)  K1 value is 0.43
V*K1 for tomorrow is 587.057500 (2348 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 28350.0000  SellStop is 27176.0000

V is equal to or greater than high filter value of 5300
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High filter does not permit trading for tomorrow

Currently flat

From 190102 total profit is 443925.00
            current drawdown is -20610.00
            maximum drawdown was -41970.00
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 MICRO NASDAQ 100       1846 Trading days from 190102 to 260501

Running .DAT file NQM008.DAT

Last trading day was 260501   Closing price was 27835.7500

Current V value is 1365.250000 (5461 ticks)  K1 value is 0.43
V*K1 for tomorrow is 587.057500 (2348 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 28350.0000  SellStop is 27176.0000

V is equal to or greater than high filter value of 5300
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High filter does not permit trading for tomorrow

Currently flat

From 190102 total profit is 37687.50
            current drawdown is -2241.00
            maximum drawdown was -4332.00
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 DOW FUTURES       1846 Trading days from 190102 to 260501

Running .DAT file YMN016.DAT

Last trading day was 260501   Closing price was 49646.0000

Current V value is 2604.000000 (2604 ticks)  K1 value is 0.26
V*K1 for tomorrow is 677.040000 (677 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 50439.0000  SellStop is 49085.0000

Protective stop price is 39835.0000
Profit objective price is 50656.0000

V is less than high filter value of 9999
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 46396.0000
Open trade equity is 16250.00

From 190102 total profit is 256870.00
            current drawdown is -4940.00
            maximum drawdown was -18315.00
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 MICRO DOW FUTURES       1846 Trading days from 190102 to 260501

Running .DAT file YMM015.DAT

Last trading day was 260501   Closing price was 49646.0000

Current V value is 2604.000000 (2604 ticks)  K1 value is 0.27
V*K1 for tomorrow is 703.080000 (703 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 50485.0000  SellStop is 49079.0000

Protective stop price is 46585.0000
Profit objective price is 51033.0000

V is less than high filter value of 6440
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 46433.0000
Open trade equity is 1606.50

From 190102 total profit is 18914.00
            current drawdown is -187.00
            maximum drawdown was -2361.50
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 GOLD 100       1845 Trading days from 190102 to 260501

Running .DAT file GC1005.DAT

Last trading day was 260501   Closing price was 4644.5000

Current V value is 108.000000 (10800 ticks)  K1 value is 0.80
V*K1 for tomorrow is 86.400000 (8640 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 4707.9000  SellStop is 4535.1000

V is equal to or greater than high filter value of 8350
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High filter does not permit trading for tomorrow

Currently flat

From 190102 total profit is 297612.00
            current drawdown is -9516.00
            maximum drawdown was -27150.00
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 MINI GOLD 50       1845 Trading days from 190102 to 260501

Running .DAT file GC2014.DAT

Last trading day was 260501   Closing price was 4644.5000

Current V value is 104.845985 (10485 ticks)  K1 value is 0.86
V*K1 for tomorrow is 90.167547 (9017 ticks)

BuyStop and SellStop computation requires tomorrow's Open

V is equal to or greater than high filter value of 8550
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High filter does not permit trading for tomorrow

Currently flat

From 190102 total profit is 156606.50
            current drawdown is 0.00
            maximum drawdown was -14128.00
................................................................
.................................................................

JUL26 MICRO GOLD 10       1845 Trading days from 190102 to 260501

Running .DAT file GC3010.DAT

Last trading day was 260501   Closing price was 4644.5000

Current V value is 245.500000 (24550 ticks)  K1 value is 0.63
V*K1 for tomorrow is 154.665000 (15466 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 4783.8300  SellStop is 4474.5000

V is equal to or greater than high filter value of 8925
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High filter does not permit trading for tomorrow

Currently flat

From 190102 total profit is 21058.60
            current drawdown is -789.70
            maximum drawdown was -2478.50
................................................................
.................................................................

JUL26 5000 COMEX SILVER       1845 Trading days from 190102 to 260501

Running .DAT file SI1005.DAT

Last trading day was 260501   Closing price was 76.4310

Current V value is 4.090004 (4090 ticks)  K1 value is 0.51
V*K1 for tomorrow is 2.085902 (2086 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 78.5170  SellStop is 74.3450

Protective stop price is 58.4310
Profit objective price is 87.1170

V is less than high filter value of 6775
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 73.6770
Open trade equity is 13770.00

From 190102 total profit is 811675.02
            current drawdown is -36694.99
            maximum drawdown was -43100.00
................................................................
.................................................................

JUL26 2500 COMEX SILVER       1845 Trading days from 190102 to 260501

Running .DAT file SI2005.DAT

Last trading day was 260501   Closing price was 76.4310

Current V value is 4.090004 (4090 ticks)  K1 value is 0.51
V*K1 for tomorrow is 2.085902 (2086 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 78.5170  SellStop is 74.3450

Protective stop price is 56.4310
Profit objective price is 87.1170

V is less than high filter value of 6775
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 73.6770
Open trade equity is 6885.00

From 190102 total profit is 384862.51
            current drawdown is -18547.49
            maximum drawdown was -21625.00
................................................................
.................................................................

MAY26 1000 COMEX SILVER       1845 Trading days from 190102 to 260501

Running .DAT file SI3005.DAT

Last trading day was 260501   Closing price was 76.4310

Current V value is 4.090004 (4090 ticks)  K1 value is 0.51
V*K1 for tomorrow is 2.085902 (2086 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 78.5170  SellStop is 74.3450

Protective stop price is 26.4310
Profit objective price is 86.8770

V is less than high filter value of 6775
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 73.6770
Open trade equity is 2754.00

From 190102 total profit is 127575.00
            current drawdown is -7659.00
            maximum drawdown was -8740.00
................................................................
.................................................................

JUL26 COPPER 25000       1845 Trading days from 190102 to 260501

Running .DAT file HG1005.DAT

Last trading day was 260501   Closing price was 5.9845

Current V value is 0.285000 (5700 ticks)  K1 value is 0.30
V*K1 for tomorrow is 0.085500 (1710 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 6.0700  SellStop is 5.8990

V is equal to or greater than high filter value of 4525
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High filter does not permit trading for tomorrow

Currently flat

From 190102 total profit is 142802.50
            current drawdown is -3722.50
            maximum drawdown was -14852.50
................................................................
.................................................................

JUL26 MINI COPPER 12500       1845 Trading days from 190102 to 260501

Running .DAT file HG2001.DAT

Last trading day was 260501   Closing price was 5.9845

Current V value is 0.285000 (5700 ticks)  K1 value is 0.30
V*K1 for tomorrow is 0.085500 (1710 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 6.0700  SellStop is 5.8990

V is equal to or greater than high filter value of 4525
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High filter does not permit trading for tomorrow

Currently flat

From 190102 total profit is 61614.37
            current drawdown is -3448.75
            maximum drawdown was -7941.25
................................................................
.................................................................

OCT26 PLATINUM 50       1845 Trading days from 190102 to 260501

Running .DAT file PLA008.DAT

Last trading day was 260501   Closing price was 2032.3000

Current V value is 114.199951 (11420 ticks)  K1 value is 0.46
V*K1 for tomorrow is 52.531978 (5253 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 2074.1000  SellStop is 1969.0300

V is equal to or greater than high filter value of 3850
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High filter does not permit trading for tomorrow

Currently flat

From 190102 total profit is 112061.50
            current drawdown is -807.50
            maximum drawdown was -10832.00
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 1000 CRUDE OIL       1845 Trading days from 190102 to 260501

Running .DAT file CL1012.DAT

Last trading day was 260501   Closing price was 101.9400

Current V value is 11.779999 (1178 ticks)  K1 value is 0.50
V*K1 for tomorrow is 5.889999 (589 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 107.8300  SellStop is 96.0500

Protective stop price is 56.8800
Profit objective price is 120.9200

V is less than high filter value of 1500
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 105.8200
Open trade equity is -3880.00

From 190102 total profit is 230120.01
            current drawdown is 0.00
            maximum drawdown was -16990.00
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 500 CRUDE OIL       1845 Trading days from 190102 to 260501

Running .DAT file CL2010.DAT

Last trading day was 260501   Closing price was 101.9400

Current V value is 11.779999 (1178 ticks)  K1 value is 0.50
V*K1 for tomorrow is 5.889999 (589 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 107.8300  SellStop is 96.0500

Protective stop price is 6.8800
Profit objective price is 120.9200

V is less than high filter value of 1500
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 105.8200
Open trade equity is -1940.00

From 190102 total profit is 109160.01
            current drawdown is 0.00
            maximum drawdown was -8700.00
................................................................
.................................................................

OCT26 42000 GASLOINE       1845 Trading days from 190102 to 260501

Running .DAT file RBN005.DAT

Last trading day was 260501   Closing price was 2.7789

Current V value is 0.183400 (1834 ticks)  K1 value is 0.50
V*K1 for tomorrow is 0.091700 (917 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 2.8706  SellStop is 2.6872

V is equal to or greater than high filter value of 1700
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High filter does not permit trading for tomorrow

Currently flat

From 190102 total profit is 222859.21
            current drawdown is 0.00
            maximum drawdown was -14938.40
................................................................
.................................................................

MAY26 MICRO BITCOIN       1846 Trading days from 190102 to 260501

Running .DAT file BTC022.DAT

Last trading day was 260501   Closing price was 78775.0000

Current V value is 4265.000000 (4265 ticks)  K1 value is 0.56
V*K1 for tomorrow is 2388.400000 (2388 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 80757.0000  SellStop is 75980.0000

Protective stop price is 67185.0000
Profit objective price is 107681.0000

V is less than high filter value of 7210
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 77681.0000
Open trade equity is 109.40

From 190102 total profit is 24453.20
            current drawdown is -1969.60
            maximum drawdown was -3038.00
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 1250000 YEN       1846 Trading days from 190102 to 260501

Running .DAT file J6N012.DAT

Last trading day was 260501   Closing price was 0.6391

Current V value is 0.020900 (209 ticks)  K1 value is 0.69
V*K1 for tomorrow is 0.014421 (144 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 0.6535  SellStop is 0.6246

Protective stop price is 0.6182
Profit objective price is 0.6545

V is less than high filter value of 9999
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 0.6329
Open trade equity is 768.75

From 190102 total profit is 64637.49
            current drawdown is -2431.25
            maximum drawdown was -9943.74
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 100000 DOLLAR INDEX       1881 Trading days from 190102 to 260501

Running .DAT file DXX016.DAT

Last trading day was 260501   Closing price was 98.0050

Current V value is 1.257004 (12570 ticks)  K1 value is 0.42
V*K1 for tomorrow is 0.527942 (5279 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 98.5329  SellStop is 97.4771

Protective stop price is 99.4440
Profit objective price is 94.5944

V is equal to or greater than high filter value of 8750
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High filter does not permit trading for tomorrow

Currently short 1 contract(s) at 98.4944
Open trade equity is 489.40

From 190102 total profit is 29511.59
            current drawdown is -1322.01
            maximum drawdown was -5535.50
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 125000 EURO FX       1846 Trading days from 190102 to 260501

Running .DAT file E6N015.DAT

Last trading day was 260501   Closing price was 1.1752

Current V value is 0.018600 (186 ticks)  K1 value is 0.42
V*K1 for tomorrow is 0.007812 (78 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 1.1830  SellStop is 1.1674

Protective stop price is 1.1556
Profit objective price is 1.1972

V is less than high filter value of 225
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 1.1596
Open trade equity is 1950.00

From 190102 total profit is 72625.00
            current drawdown is -2018.74
            maximum drawdown was -7062.50
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 62500 EUR0 FX MINI       1846 Trading days from 190102 to 260501

Running .DAT file E7M008.DAT

Last trading day was 260501   Closing price was 1.1752

Current V value is 0.018600 (186 ticks)  K1 value is 0.42
V*K1 for tomorrow is 0.007812 (78 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 1.1830  SellStop is 1.1674

Protective stop price is 1.1554
Profit objective price is 1.1972

V is less than high filter value of 225
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 1.1596
Open trade equity is 975.00

From 190102 total profit is 33637.50
            current drawdown is -1034.37
            maximum drawdown was -3881.25
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 125000 SWISS FRANC       1846 Trading days from 190102 to 260501

Running .DAT file S6N003.DAT

Last trading day was 260501   Closing price was 1.2862

Current V value is 0.009175 (92 ticks)  K1 value is 1.25
V*K1 for tomorrow is 0.011469 (115 ticks)

BuyStop and SellStop computation requires tomorrow's Open

Protective stop price is 0.8918
Profit objective price is 1.3250

V is less than high filter value of 125
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 1.2714
Open trade equity is 1850.01

From 190102 total profit is 92000.01
            current drawdown is 0.00
            maximum drawdown was -9587.51
................................................................

If you have questions contact me. 

Peter Knight
Voice & Video Chats.
Message me

 

 

Disclosure

Special Report 260501 Why the Rally Failed Today

Why the Rally Failed Today 

After wicking toward the psychological 50,000 level, the Dow surrendered its gains, forming a “nasty-looking” double top that signaled a sharp shift in intraday momentum.
The failure of the morning rally stems from a collision between positive tech earnings and cold macro realities.
x
    • Intraday Double Top: The Dow peaked at 49,988.56 early in the session—just 12 points shy of 50,000—before sellers aggressively took control, pulling the index back down toward 49,499.27.
    • “Rot” Under the Jobs Report: While the headline 178,000 jobs added looked strong, the details revealed that 400,000 people exited the workforce and job growth has averaged just 89,000 over the last six months. 
    • Manufacturing PMI Miss: A small miss in the Manufacturing PMI data moved markets back into “hesitant” territory, with traditional manufacturing and energy sectors lagging behind the tech leaders.
    • Crude Oil Variable: Although oil prices cooled slightly to $103.51, the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran remains a massive “war premium” that investors are unwilling to bet against over the weekend. 
Market Momentum Shift
The market is currently rewarding companies that make AI physically possible (like Apple, Intel, and Tesla) while punishing broader industrial and healthcare names that are sensitive to the “stagflationary” pressure of the ongoing Middle East conflict
x

If you have questions contact me. 

Peter Knight
Voice & Video Chats.
Message me

 

 

Disclosure

Fundamental Commentary 260430

x

Following a highly volatile week shaped by Middle East tensions and a divided Fed, U.S. stock markets executed a relief rally to cap off the month. Driven by solid economic data and blowout earnings from tech heavyweights like Alphabet, indices surged to new records, with the S&P 500 up 1.02% to 7,209 and the Nasdaq advancing 0.89% to 24,892. Both benchmarks registered their best month in years. Meanwhile, the currency market stole the show as Japan aggressively intervened to push the Yen from a historic low of 160.72 down to the mid-155 range. Crude oil cooled slightly to settle at $105.59, and Gold staged a comeback to finish near $4,629.

STOCK INDICES
x
ES S&P 500
      • Alphabet & Heavyweights: S&P 500 hit a new record above 7,200 as tech behemoth Alphabet’s massive earnings beat powered indices higher, overcoming mixed tech tapes.
      • Big Board Reassurance: Solid labor and economic data reassured investors that stagflation is not imminent, allowing a shift back into growth stocks.
      • Monthly Record Performance: Shrugging off previous geopolitical fears, the index concluded its strongest month in years.

NQ NASDAQ 100
      • Capex & AI Focus: Despite a pullback in chip heavyweights like Nvidia, high-conviction AI expenditure from hyperscalers provided baseline confidence for Nasdaq’s 0.89% gain.
      • Earnings Decoupling: Spectacular growth in cloud platforms counteracted intermediate misses in legacy tech.
      • Yield Stabilization Relief: A cooling in Treasury yields near 4.39% provided valuation breathing room for long-duration assets.

YM Dow Jones
      • Caterpillar Surge: Dow industrials soared 1.62% as Caterpillar spiked nearly 10% on explosive demand for data center buildouts, completely offsetting tech sector drags.
      • Blue-Chip Relief: The massive index jump snapped a persistent early-week losing streak.
      • Resilient Fundamentals: Corporate confidence from earnings calls outweighed macro consumer surveys.

QR Russell 2000
      • Risk-On Leadership: Small-caps led the market, soaring over 2.21% as capital rapidly rotated back into riskier domestic assets.
      • Input Cost Breather: The slight decline in crude oil and transport baselines provided relief to lower-margin producers.
      • Rate Cut Repricing Calm: Stabilizing yields allowed the highly rate-sensitive Russell components to rally aggressively.

FX Euro Stoxx 50
      • Growth Trimming: Persistent shipping blockades and Middle East tensions keep European GDP forecasts tight, limiting localized market upside.
      • Energy Overhead: Although oil dipped, structurally high energy baselines continue to serve as an overhead limit for manufacturing.
      • Export Pressure: Currency volatility on global shores forces active hedging among top-tier European firms.

SZ Swiss Index
      • Safe-Haven Outflows: The aggressive “risk-on” mood in U.S. equities prompted some institutional capital to pull back from the SMI’s defensive hedges.
      • Defensive Floor Integrity: High-quality healthcare and consumer staples maintained stability regardless of global capital rotations.
      • Currency Normalization: The Yen intervention caused ripples across safe-haven currency flows, influencing Swiss Franc positioning.

MX CAC 40
      • Luxury & Tourism Consolidation: Sustained inflation headlines are keeping the French luxury sector in a holding pattern as high prices are analyzed against consumer demand.
      • Aviation Struggles: Local transportation and airline firms face overhead constraints from energy and maritime blockades.
      • Global Integration: French industrial components are heavily reliant on stabilizing demand data coming out of Asian manufacturing hubs.

AE AEX
      • Semi Sector Rebound: Earnings beats from localized tech leaders continue to provide isolated support for the Dutch benchmark.
      • Logistical Squeeze Easing: Global shipping networks are finding their footing via rerouted lanes, benefiting Amsterdam’s maritime footprint.
      • Yield Competition: Sovereign notes holding near high yields are keeping a lid on defensive dividend payouts.

NY Nikkei
      • Yen Intervention Relief: The sudden surge in the Yen provided immense temporary relief to Japan’s heavily import-dependent energy and material buyers.
      • Inflation Headwinds Diminish: Moving back from the 160 level in USD/JPY eases massive cost-push pressures on domestic businesses.
      • Tech Spillover Bid: Wall Street’s immense AI infrastructure rally is providing high sympathy bids to Japanese robotics and chip-testing firms.

HS Hang Seng
      • Mainland Stimulus Lags: Real estate fatigue and lack of massive bailout announcements keep Hong Kong indices on a volatile, directionless path.
      • Global Output Deceleration: Slower external manufacturing data is affecting trading hubs tied tightly to mainland China.
      • Value Play Support: Heavy discounts in massive tech names continue to create hard technical support floors for indices.
METALS
x
GC Gold 100
      • Yield Retreat Bounce: Gold futures surged over 1.4% to finish near $4,629 as dip buyers capitalized on a minor pullback in Treasury yields and the Dollar.
      • Geopolitical Floor: Despite lack of new escalations, continuous Middle East blockades keep high war premiums built into physical bullion.
      • Hedge Continuity: Long-term inflation concerns from high oil maintain consistent baseline institutional bids.

SI Silver 5000
      • Precious Metal Recovery: Silver aggressively followed gold higher, tracking the broad market rotation back into hard assets.
      • Industrial Reassessment: Reassurances that the U.S. economy maintains a solid baseline revived structural industrial demand narratives.
      • Ratio Accumulation: Speculators continue to treat large gold-to-silver ratio spreads as a green light to buy silver at deep discounts.

HG Copper 25K
      • Supply Squeeze: Fears of new tariffs are prompting manufacturers to rapidly buy and secure domestic physical copper stockpiles.
      • Electrification Anchor: Long-term supercycle initiatives for EV and renewable power grid construction remain the dominant bid for copper.
      • Warehouse Squeeze: Critically low stockpiles in major global storage hubs are severely punishing short positions.

PL Platinum 50
      • Precious Metal Sympathy: Platinum recovered alongside the broader hard asset bounce, reversing its early-week decline.
      • Grid Failure Premium: Power supply disruptions in primary South African mining hubs keep the long-term scarcity premium very active.
      • Catalyst Demand: Clean energy tech and auto catalysts maintain a reliable baseline demand floor for the metal.
ENERGY
x
CL Crude Oil
      • Momentum Cools: WTI crude eased over 1.2% to settle at $105.59 as physical markets took a breather after vertical spikes.
      • Hormuz Risk Retained: The U.S. naval blockade and lack of peace proposals in the Strait keep heavy war premiums attached to energy futures.
      • Inventory Flight: Money slightly flowed out of energy and food commodities in early trade, stabilizing market action.

NG Natural Gas
      • Export Directives: Pipeline and export expansion narratives keep long-term global LNG integration the primary bull driver.
      • Weather Volatility: Shifting seasonal weather is producing minor localized power generation demand spikes.
      • High Surplus Buffer: Strong storage surpluses following the mild winter continue to limit massive upward volatility.

RB Gasoline
      • Refining Stress Margin: Strait of Hormuz closures and fuel network strains keep gasoline baseline prices climbing.
      • Pivoted Logistics: Forced rerouting around Middle Eastern blockades provides U.S. refiners with record local margins.
      • Driving Season Acceleration: Peak summer travel demand is providing high wholesale support regardless of volatile crude prices.

HO Heating Oil
      • Middle Distillate Scarcity: Critically low global inventories of refined products ensure the market overreacts to any sudden supply news.
      • Transport Competitiveness: Heavy demand for maritime diesel is keeping heating oil baseline prices tied to geopolitical headlines.
      • War-Margin Retention: Conflict-driven shipping stress continues to sustain high margins for refined fuels.
CURRENCIES
x
A6 100,000 AUD
      • Risk Asset Recovery: The Australian Dollar caught a bid as global investors aggressively returned to risk assets on Big Tech success.
      • China Industrial Spillover: Surging Chinese manufacturing profits maintain strong baseline export bids for Australian materials.
      • Rate Continuity: High core inflation locally keeps Australian yields attractive to global carry traders.

D6 100,000 CAD
      • Safe-Neighbor Priority: U.S. industrial networks are prioritizing Canadian energy resources over highly stressed Middle Eastern corridors.
      • Economic Integration: Resilient U.S. economic data serves as a direct catalyst for Canadian raw material exports.
      • Yield Support: Aggressive energy-driven inflation keeps the Bank of Canada in a hawkish stance, supporting local currency yield advantages.

S6 125,000 CHF
      • Safe-Haven Continuity: The Swiss Franc remains a premier safe harbor for institutional capital trying to outrun European stagflation risks.
      • Defensive Rotation: Capital is using the CHF as a primary vehicle to exit high-exposure Eurozone markets.
      • Yield Curve Skew: High premiums for downside protection keep a permanent baseline bid on the Franc.

E6 125,000 EUR
      • Recession Avoidance Hopes: The Euro found minor relief as markets hope for a shorter-lived conflict to protect supply chains.
      • Speculator Longs: Institutional traders have raised net buy biases, expressing long-term optimism in Euro area growth.
      • Fed Relief: Reassurances that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cap runaway inflation are easing global discount pressures on the Euro.

B6 62,500 GBP
      • Consumer Data Rebound: Better-than-expected UK retail data is challenging the recession narrative, supporting Sterling.
      • Sticky Inflation: High services inflation ensures the Bank of England is unlikely to aggressively pivot to rate cuts.
      • Equity Spillover: As a high-beta currency, the Pound capitalized on the aggressive broad-market equity rally.

J6 12.5 M JPY
      • Intervention Shockwave: The Yen surged as the Japanese government reportedly intervened after USD/JPY hit a historic 2026 high of 160.72.
      • Warned Action: Minister Katayama’s warning that “the time is drawing near” preceded a massive drop to the mid-155 range.
      • Trade Deficit Relief: Pushing the Yen back from the brink helps limit the massive import-inflation tax currently hurting Japan’s economy.

DX 100,000 USD
      • Yield & Safe-Haven Retreat: The dollar index traded lower near 98.5 amid reports of Yen intervention and falling Treasury yields.
      • Reserve Anchor Integrity: Despite today’s dip, the USD remains the premier liquidity proxy during acute Middle East stress.
      • Inflation Buffer: High consumer inflation expectations maintain a strict fundamental floor under the Dollar Index.
CRYPTO
x
BT 0.10 Bitcoin
      • Risk-On Continuity: Bitcoin rose over 1.05% to $76,442, tracking the heavy risk-on mood of the broader stock indices.
      • Institutional Buffers: Growing institutional derivatives usage is establishing a highly reliable support floor against retail panic.
      • Halving Deficits: The continuous reduction in market supply is slowly grinding floor valuations higher.

TAM 0.10 Ether
      • Tech-Beta Movement: Ether is trading with a strict correlation to high-beta Nasdaq semiconductor stocks.
      • Mixed ETF Inflows: Institutional capital remains less concentrated in Ether than in Bitcoin as it looks for direct utility proof.
      • DeFi Utility: Heightened activity in localized blockchain infrastructures is acting as a secondary floor for the token.
INTEREST RATES
x
SQ 3-Month
      • Fed Policy Anchor: Short-term borrowing rates remain anchored to the Federal Reserve’s commitment to holding rates steady.
      • Liquidity Flight: Capital continues to aggressively favor short-duration yields over volatile long-term bonds.
      • Data Dependency: The 3-month yield remains highly sensitive to incoming jobs and localized consumer indices.

ZT 2-Year T-Note
      • Yield Spike Reversal: 2-year yields pared early-week gains as aggressive inflation surveys were offset by cooler wholesale prints, trading near 3.89%.
      • Rate Cut Repricing: Repricing of near-term rate cuts remains the dominant theme in the short end of the curve.
      • Economic Strength: Low unemployment claims and strong data signal that the economy may be too strong for rate relief.

ZF 5-Year T-Note
      • Risk Premium Absorption: The 5-year is actively pricing in the long-term logistical costs of multi-month maritime blockades.
      • Corporate Cost Cap: Stabilizing 5-year yields are preventing borrowing costs from choking off the AI capital expenditure boom.
      • Stagflation Mitigation: Fed reassurances that stagflation will be held at bay are keeping the intermediate curve stable.

ZN 10-Year
      • Yield Retreat: 10-year Treasury yields pulled back from early-week spikes to trade near 4.39%, easing immediate valuation weights on growth equities.
      • Real Yield Normalization: Inflation-adjusted yields are finding equilibrium as markets digest a prolonged energy crisis.
      • Safe Harbor Inflows: Capital is flowing out of long-term debt and back into aggressive tech earnings, driving yields down.

ZB 30-Year
      • Duration Stress: Forecasts of soaring commodity prices continue to apply a strict penalty on long-term fixed-income real returns.
      • TIPS Allocation: Institutional demand for inflation-protected bonds is growing heavily as a hedge against a multi-year cycle.
      • Sovereign Reallocation: Global portfolios are actively rotating out of 30-year exposure in favor of liquid hard assets.
AGRICULTURAL
x
ZC Corn
      • Grains Pullback: Corn futures pulled back to 474-6s as money flowed out of food and energy commodities to close the month.
      • Industrial Support: Strong spikes in Asian manufacturing demand are keeping long-term livestock feed demand in a healthy range.
      • Weather Resilience: Excellent planting progress across the U.S. Midwest is preventing a full-scale agricultural price breakout.

ZW Wheat
      • Grains Pullback: Money flowing out of food and energy commodities applied a slight overhead limit on wheat’s daily action.
      • Shipping Bottlenecks: Forced rerouting around blocked maritime corridors keeps global wheat transport costs extremely high.
      • Short-Squeeze Potential: Heavy speculator net-short positioning in soft commodities remains highly vulnerable to supply shocks.

ZS Soybeans
      • Consolidation Day: July Soybeans recorded a marginal pullback of just 1 3/4 cents, effectively holding onto its heavy weekly gains despite minor daily fluctuations.
      • Bio-Diesel Demand: Escalating fossil fuel costs keep refineries actively prioritizing soybean oil for bio-diesel blending.
      • China Demand Surge: Stellar industrial profits in China signal to speculators that soybean meal export volume is secured.

CT Cotton
      • Cost-Push Pressures: Rising energy costs are lifting transportation and processing baselines despite poor consumer sentiment.
      • Manufacturing Resilience: Despite localized consumer fears, massive manufacturing expansions in Asia are maintaining baseline fiber usage.
      • Logistical Squeeze: Strait of Hormuz closures heavily increase the delivery duration to major textile hubs.

KC Coffee
      • Transport Premiums: Volatile crude oil prices are directly increasing the transport cost of high-end arabica beans.
      • Supply Deficits: Continued poor crop forecasts in major growing regions are supporting the strict upward technical trend.
      • Staple Demand: High prices are doing very little to destroy demand for the daily consumer staple.

CC Cocoa
      • Historic Bull Support: Cocoa remains the star performer of the commodities market, leveraging West African production deficits.
      • Inventory Depletion: Multi-decade low inventories ensure that speculators aggressively bid on any minor supply news.
      • Inelastic Demand: Chocolate manufacturers have no choice but to absorb record wholesale premiums.

OJ Orange Juice
      • Supply Tightness: Massive drops in Florida production continue to apply a highly predictable upward floor on prices.
      • Logistics Squeeze: Transportation and fuel surcharges are pushing retail orange juice to new historic highs.
      • Tactical Hedge: Speculators are aggressively treating orange juice as a physical diversifier from high-tech volatility.

LB Lumber
      • Housing Proxy: Lumber is tracking resilient consumer banking data, proving that builders are proceeding despite high interest rates.
      • Input Cost Push: Rising metal and energy baselines make the production of construction materials physically more expensive.
      • Rate Headwinds: Shifting yields on the 10-year note keep lumber highly sensitive to future mortgage rate calculations.

If you have questions contact me. 

Peter Knight
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Disclosure

260430 positions, 260501 stops, reversals & objectives

Intraday Quotes 
S&P 500 NASDAQ Dow  Gold Silver 
Copper  Platinum Bitcoin Crude  Gasoline
Swiss Euro  Dollar Yen
How to track trades
 Performance Historical Trade Reports
 
.................................................................

JUN26 MINI SP 500       1845 Trading days from 190102 to 260430

Running .DAT file ESN011.DAT

Last trading day was 260430   Closing price was 7243.7500

Current V value is 164.500000 (658 ticks)  K1 value is 0.41
V*K1 for tomorrow is 67.445000 (270 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 7311.2500  SellStop is 7176.2500

Protective stop price is 6243.7500
Profit objective price is 7532.0000

V is less than high filter value of 1750
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 7220.0000
Open trade equity is 1187.50

From 190102 total profit is 316112.50
            current drawdown is -10337.50
            maximum drawdown was -31150.00
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 MICRO SP 500       1845 Trading days from 190102 to 260430

Running .DAT file ESM004.DAT

Last trading day was 260430   Closing price was 7243.7500

Current V value is 164.500000 (658 ticks)  K1 value is 0.41
V*K1 for tomorrow is 67.445000 (270 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 7311.2500  SellStop is 7176.2500

Protective stop price is 0.0000
Profit objective price is 7532.0000

V is less than high filter value of 1750
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 7220.0000
Open trade equity is 118.75

From 190102 total profit is 17166.25
            current drawdown is -1217.50
            maximum drawdown was -4791.25
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 MINI NASDAQ 100       1845 Trading days from 190102 to 260430

Running .DAT file NQN002.DAT

Last trading day was 260430   Closing price was 27596.0000

Current V value is 1087.750000 (4351 ticks)  K1 value is 0.43
V*K1 for tomorrow is 467.732500 (1871 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 27928.5000  SellStop is 26993.0000

V is less than high filter value of 5300
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently flat

From 190102 total profit is 443925.00
            current drawdown is -20610.00
            maximum drawdown was -41970.00
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 MICRO NASDAQ 100       1845 Trading days from 190102 to 260430

Running .DAT file NQM008.DAT

Last trading day was 260430   Closing price was 27596.0000

Current V value is 1087.750000 (4351 ticks)  K1 value is 0.43
V*K1 for tomorrow is 467.732500 (1871 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 27928.5000  SellStop is 26993.0000

V is less than high filter value of 5300
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently flat

From 190102 total profit is 37687.50
            current drawdown is -2241.00
            maximum drawdown was -4332.00
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 DOW FUTURES       1845 Trading days from 190102 to 260430

Running .DAT file YMN016.DAT

Last trading day was 260430   Closing price was 49835.0000

Current V value is 2509.000000 (2509 ticks)  K1 value is 0.26
V*K1 for tomorrow is 652.340000 (652 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 50165.0000  SellStop is 48860.0000

Protective stop price is 39835.0000
Profit objective price is 50656.0000

V is less than high filter value of 9999
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 46396.0000
Open trade equity is 17195.00

From 190102 total profit is 257815.00
            current drawdown is -4940.00
            maximum drawdown was -18315.00
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 MICRO DOW FUTURES       1845 Trading days from 190102 to 260430

Running .DAT file YMM015.DAT

Last trading day was 260430   Closing price was 49835.0000

Current V value is 3215.000000 (3215 ticks)  K1 value is 0.27
V*K1 for tomorrow is 868.050000 (868 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 50327.0000  SellStop is 48591.0000

Protective stop price is 46585.0000
Profit objective price is 51033.0000

V is less than high filter value of 6440
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 46433.0000
Open trade equity is 1701.00

From 190102 total profit is 19008.50
            current drawdown is -187.00
            maximum drawdown was -2361.50
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 GOLD 100       1844 Trading days from 190102 to 260430

Running .DAT file GC1005.DAT

Last trading day was 260430   Closing price was 4629.6001

Current V value is 148.899902 (14890 ticks)  K1 value is 0.80
V*K1 for tomorrow is 119.119922 (11912 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 4723.9200  SellStop is 4485.6800

V is equal to or greater than high filter value of 8350
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High filter does not permit trading for tomorrow

Currently flat

From 190102 total profit is 297612.00
            current drawdown is -9516.00
            maximum drawdown was -27150.00
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 MINI GOLD 50       1844 Trading days from 190102 to 260430

Running .DAT file GC2014.DAT

Last trading day was 260430   Closing price was 4629.6001

Current V value is 104.838287 (10484 ticks)  K1 value is 0.86
V*K1 for tomorrow is 90.160927 (9016 ticks)

BuyStop and SellStop computation requires tomorrow's Open

V is equal to or greater than high filter value of 8550
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High filter does not permit trading for tomorrow

Currently flat

From 190102 total profit is 156606.50
            current drawdown is 0.00
            maximum drawdown was -14128.00
................................................................
.................................................................

JUL26 MICRO GOLD 10       1844 Trading days from 190102 to 260430

Running .DAT file GC3010.DAT

Last trading day was 260430   Closing price was 4629.6001

Current V value is 245.500000 (24550 ticks)  K1 value is 0.63
V*K1 for tomorrow is 154.665000 (15466 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 4767.7300  SellStop is 4458.4000

V is equal to or greater than high filter value of 8925
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High filter does not permit trading for tomorrow

Currently flat

From 190102 total profit is 21058.60
            current drawdown is -789.70
            maximum drawdown was -2478.50
................................................................
.................................................................

JUL26 5000 COMEX SILVER       1844 Trading days from 190102 to 260430

Running .DAT file SI1005.DAT

Last trading day was 260430   Closing price was 74.0280

Current V value is 2.750000 (2750 ticks)  K1 value is 0.51
V*K1 for tomorrow is 1.402500 (1402 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 75.4300  SellStop is 72.6250

Protective stop price is 56.0280
Profit objective price is 87.1170

V is less than high filter value of 6775
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 73.6770
Open trade equity is 1755.00

From 190102 total profit is 799660.02
            current drawdown is -36694.99
            maximum drawdown was -43100.00
................................................................
.................................................................

JUL26 2500 COMEX SILVER       1844 Trading days from 190102 to 260430

Running .DAT file SI2005.DAT

Last trading day was 260430   Closing price was 74.0280

Current V value is 2.750000 (2750 ticks)  K1 value is 0.51
V*K1 for tomorrow is 1.402500 (1402 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 75.4300  SellStop is 72.6250

Protective stop price is 54.0280
Profit objective price is 87.1170

V is less than high filter value of 6775
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 73.6770
Open trade equity is 877.50

From 190102 total profit is 378855.01
            current drawdown is -18547.49
            maximum drawdown was -21625.00
................................................................
.................................................................

MAY26 1000 COMEX SILVER       1844 Trading days from 190102 to 260430

Running .DAT file SI3005.DAT

Last trading day was 260430   Closing price was 74.0280

Current V value is 2.750000 (2750 ticks)  K1 value is 0.51
V*K1 for tomorrow is 1.402500 (1402 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 75.4300  SellStop is 72.6250

Protective stop price is 24.0280
Profit objective price is 86.8770

V is less than high filter value of 6775
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 73.6770
Open trade equity is 351.00

From 190102 total profit is 125172.00
            current drawdown is -7659.00
            maximum drawdown was -8740.00
................................................................
.................................................................

JUL26 COPPER 25000       1844 Trading days from 190102 to 260430

Running .DAT file HG1005.DAT

Last trading day was 260430   Closing price was 5.9805

Current V value is 0.285000 (5700 ticks)  K1 value is 0.30
V*K1 for tomorrow is 0.085500 (1710 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 6.0660  SellStop is 5.8950

V is equal to or greater than high filter value of 4525
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High filter does not permit trading for tomorrow

Currently flat

From 190102 total profit is 142802.50
            current drawdown is -3722.50
            maximum drawdown was -14852.50
................................................................
.................................................................

JUL26 MINI COPPER 12500       1844 Trading days from 190102 to 260430

Running .DAT file HG2001.DAT

Last trading day was 260430   Closing price was 5.9805

Current V value is 0.285000 (5700 ticks)  K1 value is 0.30
V*K1 for tomorrow is 0.085500 (1710 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 6.0660  SellStop is 5.8950

V is equal to or greater than high filter value of 4525
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High filter does not permit trading for tomorrow

Currently flat

From 190102 total profit is 61614.37
            current drawdown is -3448.75
            maximum drawdown was -7941.25
................................................................
.................................................................

OCT26 PLATINUM 50       1844 Trading days from 190102 to 260430

Running .DAT file PLA008.DAT

Last trading day was 260430   Closing price was 2014.6000

Current V value is 111.599976 (11160 ticks)  K1 value is 0.46
V*K1 for tomorrow is 51.335989 (5134 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 2031.4000  SellStop is 1928.7300

V is equal to or greater than high filter value of 3850
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High filter does not permit trading for tomorrow

Currently flat

From 190102 total profit is 112061.50
            current drawdown is -807.50
            maximum drawdown was -10832.00
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 1000 CRUDE OIL       1844 Trading days from 190102 to 260430

Running .DAT file CL1012.DAT

Last trading day was 260430   Closing price was 105.0700

Current V value is 11.779999 (1178 ticks)  K1 value is 0.50
V*K1 for tomorrow is 5.889999 (589 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 110.9600  SellStop is 99.1800

Protective stop price is 56.8800
Profit objective price is 120.9200

V is less than high filter value of 1500
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 105.8200
Open trade equity is -750.00

From 190102 total profit is 233250.01
            current drawdown is 0.00
            maximum drawdown was -16990.00
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 500 CRUDE OIL       1844 Trading days from 190102 to 260430

Running .DAT file CL2010.DAT

Last trading day was 260430   Closing price was 105.0700

Current V value is 11.779999 (1178 ticks)  K1 value is 0.50
V*K1 for tomorrow is 5.889999 (589 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 110.9600  SellStop is 99.1800

Protective stop price is 6.8800
Profit objective price is 120.9200

V is less than high filter value of 1500
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 105.8200
Open trade equity is -375.00

From 190102 total profit is 110725.00
            current drawdown is 0.00
            maximum drawdown was -8700.00
................................................................
.................................................................

OCT26 42000 GASLOINE       1844 Trading days from 190102 to 260430

Running .DAT file RBN005.DAT

Last trading day was 260430   Closing price was 2.7897

Current V value is 0.183400 (1834 ticks)  K1 value is 0.50
V*K1 for tomorrow is 0.091700 (917 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 2.8814  SellStop is 2.6980

V is equal to or greater than high filter value of 1700
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High filter does not permit trading for tomorrow

Currently flat

From 190102 total profit is 222859.21
            current drawdown is 0.00
            maximum drawdown was -14938.40
................................................................
.................................................................

MAY26 MICRO BITCOIN       1845 Trading days from 190102 to 260430

Running .DAT file BTC022.DAT

Last trading day was 260430   Closing price was 76740.0000

Current V value is 4265.000000 (4265 ticks)  K1 value is 0.56
V*K1 for tomorrow is 2388.400000 (2388 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 78908.0000  SellStop is 74132.0000

Protective stop price is 67185.0000
Profit objective price is 107681.0000

V is less than high filter value of 7210
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 77681.0000
Open trade equity is -94.10

From 190102 total profit is 24249.70
            current drawdown is -1969.60
            maximum drawdown was -3038.00
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 1250000 YEN       1845 Trading days from 190102 to 260430

Running .DAT file J6N012.DAT

Last trading day was 260430   Closing price was 0.6416

Current V value is 0.020900 (209 ticks)  K1 value is 0.69
V*K1 for tomorrow is 0.014421 (144 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 0.6560  SellStop is 0.6272

Protective stop price is 0.6182
Profit objective price is 0.6545

V is less than high filter value of 9999
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 0.6329
Open trade equity is 1087.50

From 190102 total profit is 64956.24
            current drawdown is -2431.25
            maximum drawdown was -9943.74
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 100000 DOLLAR INDEX       1880 Trading days from 190102 to 260430

Running .DAT file DXX016.DAT

Last trading day was 260430   Closing price was 97.9190

Current V value is 1.045998 (10460 ticks)  K1 value is 0.42
V*K1 for tomorrow is 0.439319 (4393 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 98.3583  SellStop is 97.4797

Protective stop price is 99.4440
Profit objective price is 94.5944

V is equal to or greater than high filter value of 8750
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High filter does not permit trading for tomorrow

Currently short 1 contract(s) at 98.4944
Open trade equity is 575.40

From 190102 total profit is 29597.59
            current drawdown is -1322.01
            maximum drawdown was -5535.50
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 125000 EURO FX       1845 Trading days from 190102 to 260430

Running .DAT file E6N015.DAT

Last trading day was 260430   Closing price was 1.1760

Current V value is 0.018600 (186 ticks)  K1 value is 0.42
V*K1 for tomorrow is 0.007812 (78 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 1.1838  SellStop is 1.1682

Protective stop price is 1.1556
Profit objective price is 1.1972

V is less than high filter value of 225
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 1.1596
Open trade equity is 2050.00

From 190102 total profit is 72725.00
            current drawdown is -2018.74
            maximum drawdown was -7062.50
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 62500 EUR0 FX MINI       1845 Trading days from 190102 to 260430

Running .DAT file E7M008.DAT

Last trading day was 260430   Closing price was 1.1760

Current V value is 0.018600 (186 ticks)  K1 value is 0.42
V*K1 for tomorrow is 0.007812 (78 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 1.1838  SellStop is 1.1682

Protective stop price is 1.1554
Profit objective price is 1.1972

V is less than high filter value of 225
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 1.1596
Open trade equity is 1025.00

From 190102 total profit is 33687.50
            current drawdown is -1034.37
            maximum drawdown was -3881.25
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 125000 SWISS FRANC       1845 Trading days from 190102 to 260430

Running .DAT file S6N003.DAT

Last trading day was 260430   Closing price was 1.2859

Current V value is 0.008917 (89 ticks)  K1 value is 1.25
V*K1 for tomorrow is 0.011146 (111 ticks)

260501 Open 1.2859		
V*K1 = 0.0111		
BuyStop for tomorrow is 1.2970 SellStop is 1.2748

Protective stop price is 0.8918
Profit objective price is 1.3250

V is less than high filter value of 125
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 1.2714
Open trade equity is 1806.26

From 190102 total profit is 91956.26
            current drawdown is 0.00
            maximum drawdown was -9587.51
................................................................

If you have questions contact me. 

Peter Knight
Voice & Video Chats.
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Disclosure

Fundamental Commentary 260429

x
STOCK INDICES
x
ES S&P 500
    • Stall at Resistance: The index retreated from its record high, edging down to 7,135.95 as investors took a cautious “wait-and-see” stance ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision.
    • Energy Drag: Surging oil prices from the ongoing Iran-U.S. conflict weighed heavily on broader market sentiment, offsetting localized gains in other sectors.
    • AI Valuation Check: Continued weakness in artificial-intelligence stocks—sparked by OpenAI’s missed revenue targets—contributed to the day’s downward pressure.
NQ NASDAQ 100
    • Earnings Anticipation: The tech-heavy benchmark remained nearly flat, closing at 27,149.90 as investors braced for post-close reports from tech titans Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft.
    • Semiconductor Bright Spot: Despite broad tech jitters, Seagate Technology and NXP Semiconductors both surged over 11% following blowout earnings beats and positive forward guidance.
    • Infrastructure Skepticism: Market momentum remains sensitive to AI-justification, with traders demanding clear revenue proof for the massive capital expenditures being poured into AI investments.
YM Dow Jones
    • Five-Day Losing Streak: The 30-stock average dropped 280.12 points to close at 48,861.81, marking its longest run of daily losses since late March.
    • Oil-Driven Pressure: The Dow was particularly sensitive to the surge in crude, as the resulting inflationary fears continue to dampen outlooks for domestic industrial and transport components.
    • Value Sector Rotation: As risk-on momentum stalled in tech, some institutional capital is retreating toward defensive cash positions rather than traditionally safer blue-chips.
QR Russell 2000
    • Interest Rate Anxiety: Small-caps faced outsized pressure today as the market re-priced the likelihood of near-term rate cuts due to persistent energy-driven inflation.
    • Funding Cost Fears: The Russell 2000 is reacting to a spike in intermediate yields, which threatens to increase the cost of floating-rate debt for smaller domestic firms.
    • Volatility Flare-Up: The index is exhibiting high-beta sensitivity to geopolitical headlines, serving as a primary gauge for investor fear regarding domestic economic cooling.
FX Euro Stoxx 50
    • Energy Import Sensitivity: European blue-chips are under intense pressure due to the continent’s high dependency on Middle East energy routes currently facing blockades.
    • Manufacturing Headwinds: Heavy industrial firms in Germany and France are bracing for higher input costs that could stall the fragile regional recovery.
    • ECB Policy Divergence: Investors are fearing the ECB may be forced to maintain a restrictive stance longer than anticipated to combat imported energy-inflation.
SZ Swiss Index
    • Safe-Haven Resilience: Amid broad European selling, the Swiss market is maintaining its defensive status, anchored by high-quality pharmaceutical and staple giants.
    • Franc Strength Correlation: The index is tracking the persistent fundamental bid in the Swiss Franc as investors seek protection over upside in the current geopolitical climate.
    • Stability Premium: Global uncertainty continues to funnel institutional capital into the stable Swiss market as a hedge against Eurozone volatility.
MX CAC 40
    • Luxury Sector Hesitation: French luxury giants are seeing a pause in momentum as investors weigh global inflation shocks against premium consumer demand.
    • Logistics Delays: CAC 40 industrials are reacting to the increased costs and delays caused by the tightening blockades in the Strait of Hormuz.
    • Banking Caution: French financial stocks are facing headwinds as market volatility increases and investors weigh the potential for a regional economic slowdown.
AE AEX
    • Semiconductor Support: Upbeat forecasts from major equipment manufacturers are providing localized support for Dutch semiconductor stocks despite the broader tech pullback.
    • Logistics Hub Volatility: Amsterdam-based shipping and storage firms are seeing increased volatility as global logistics routes are rerouted away from conflict zones.
    • Dividend Inflows: High-dividend Dutch blue-chips are attracting defensive interest as a yield-alternative to the volatile bond market.
NY Nikkei
    • Energy Import Fear: As a major energy importer, the Japanese market is bracing for the impact of $100+ oil on domestic inflation and corporate profit margins.
    • Yen Intervention Risk: The Nikkei is highly sensitive to potential BOJ moves to support the Yen as energy-driven trade deficits expand.
    • Export Earnings Offset: Major Japanese exporters are using the weak Yen to help offset the rising cost of raw material imports in a high-oil environment.
HS Hang Seng
    • Supply Chain Anxiety: Stalled peace talks are fueling concerns about shipping disruptions between mainland manufacturing hubs and global markets.
    • Energy Cost Drag: Rising crude prices are complicating mainland efforts to provide fiscal stimulus, acting as a drag on the Hong Kong benchmark.
    • Value Rotation: Despite the macro shock, historically low valuations in the Hang Seng are providing some support for contrarian value seekers.
METALS
x
GC Gold 100
    • Opportunity Cost Spike: Gold futures fell toward $4,591 as the $8.56 surge in oil pushed interest rate expectations and Treasury yields higher.
    • Flight to Liquidity: Investors are liquidating precious metal positions in favor of the U.S. Dollar, which has recaptured its role as the preferred safe haven.
    • Fed Policy Pressure: A divided Fed board signaled that near-term rate cuts are now less likely, increasing the cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
SI Silver 5000
    • Sector-Wide Correction: Silver tracked gold lower, with settlement prices retreating toward the $72.00 level as the stronger dollar and rising yields acted as combined headwinds.
    • Industrial Demand Concerns: Silver is underperforming gold as slowing manufacturing data and higher energy costs raise fears of a cooling in industrial use.
    • Technical Re-pricing: After a vertical rally, speculators are using the current geopolitical stalemate to lock in gains and rotate into higher-yielding liquidity.
HG Copper 25K
    • Growth Slowdown Alert: Copper fell today as the market weighs the impact of $100+ oil on global manufacturing activity and construction demand.
    • Energy-Intensive Mining: While rising fuel costs increase extraction expenses, the immediate fear of a global economic slowdown is overriding the supply-side support.
    • Warehouse Depletion: Critically low stockpiles in major warehouses are preventing a deeper sell-off, acting as a secondary floor for the metal.
PL Platinum 50
    • Sympathy Sell-Off: Platinum prices followed the broader metals complex lower as investors rotated out of precious metals and into energy and cash.
    • Industrial Sensitivity: As a primary industrial material, platinum is reacting to the same manufacturing slowdown signals pressuring silver and copper.
    • Supply Risk Pillar: Ongoing production risks in South Africa remain the primary fundamental pillar supporting the current scarcity premium.
ENERGY
x
CL Crude Oil
    • War Risk Surge: U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures soared 7.17% today to settle at $107.16 per barrel as the Iran war threatens global supply lines.
    • Hormuz Blockade Fear: International benchmark Brent crude advanced to $118.80, reflecting extreme anxiety over the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
    • Negotiation Collapse: The collapse of Middle East ceasefire negotiations prompted an immediate re-pricing of war risk, leaving markets highly vulnerable to supply shocks.
NG Natural Gas
    • Fuel Substitution: Natural gas is catching a bid as power generators look for alternatives to surging petroleum-based fuels.
    • Export Expansion: New LNG export terminals are increasing the integration of domestic gas prices with higher-priced European and Asian markets.
    • Sector Sentiment: Natural gas is tracking the broader surge in energy benchmarks as the global fear premium for fuel delivery expands.
RB Gasoline
    • Strait Disruption Impact: The blockade of key shipping lanes is directly hitting the global supply of refined products, driving prices sharply higher.
    • Refining Margin Spike: Gasoline prices are outperforming crude as refiners face logistical hurdles and rising input costs.
    • Driving Season Threat: The $100+ oil environment is fueling concerns about demand destruction heading into the peak summer travel window.
HO Heating Oil
    • Distillate Squeeze: Global inventories of middle distillates remain at critical lows, magnifying the price impact of the current energy shock.
    • Shipping Fuel Costs: Rising demand for military and commercial shipping fuel is competing for the same distillate pool, driving prices higher.
    • Logistical Constraints: Ongoing constraints in conflict zones are adding a significant transportation premium to all refined heating fuels.
CURRENCIES
x
A6 100,000 AUD
    • Commodity Bid vs. Risk-Off: The Aussie is caught between the surge in energy prices and a broad-market retreat in risk assets.
    • Industrial Slowdown: Slower manufacturing output from major Asian trading partners is signaling a potential dip in raw material export demand.
    • Yield Advantage: Domestic rate expectations remain the primary support for the AUD as it navigates the volatile global interest rate outlook.
D6 100,000 CAD
    • Energy Powerhouse Status: The Canadian Dollar is a primary beneficiary of the crude surge, reflecting Canada’s role as a stable energy provider.
    • Safe-Neighbor Premium: As Middle East routes fail, the CAD is seeing increased demand as a proxy for secure, North American resource wealth.
    • Yield Support: Rising energy-driven inflation is keeping the Bank of Canada in a hawkish stance, supporting the Loonie’s yield advantage.
S6 125,000 CHF
    • Ultimate Safe Haven: The Swiss Franc is seeing massive inflows as the collapse of peace talks triggers a flight from Euro-denominated assets.
    • Neutrality Premium: Switzerland’s neutral status is making the CHF the primary destination for sovereign and institutional capital.
    • Stability Focus: The Franc remains the premier choice for investors seeking a hedge against global currency debasement.
E6 125,000 EUR
    • Recession Risk: The Euro is under pressure as the surge in energy costs threatens to tip the region into a deep, war-driven recession.
    • Energy Dependency: Europe’s reliance on Middle East energy routes makes the Euro particularly vulnerable to the Hormuz blockade.
    • Policy Stalemate: Investors fear the ECB may be forced to choose between fighting inflation and supporting a slowing economy.
B6 62,500 GBP
    • Growth Forecast Downgrades: Stalled peace talks are fueling concerns about the UK’s growth outlook, putting the Pound on the defensive.
    • Imported Inflation: The jump in energy prices is expected to keep UK inflation sticky, complicating the Bank of England’s policy path.
    • Risk Sensitivity: As a high-beta currency, the Pound is reacting negatively to the broad-market retreat in risk assets.
J6 12.5 M JPY
    • Trade Deficit Fears: Rising energy costs are a major negative for Japan’s trade balance, putting further downward pressure on the Yen.
    • Intervention Watch: The market is on high alert for BOJ intervention as the Yen remains pinned near historic lows.
    • Safe-Haven Disconnect: The Yen continues to lose its safe-haven status to the U.S. Dollar and Swiss Franc during this energy shock.
DX 100,000 USD
    • Safe-Haven Dominance: The Dollar Index (DXY) is the primary beneficiary of the flight to safety, gaining ground as geopolitical tensions rattle global markets.
    • Yield Advantage: The hawkish undertone from the Fed’s split decision is widening the interest rate advantage of the USD over the Euro and Yen.
    • War Premium: The greenback is recapturing its role as the world’s most liquid hedge against Middle East instability and shipping lane disruptions.
CRYPTO
x
BT 0.10 Bitcoin
    • Digital Safe-Haven Test: Bitcoin is holding relatively steady as investors test its role as a digital alternative during the energy-driven market shock.
    • Institutional Support: Institutional holdings are providing a floor for Bitcoin even as traditional technology stocks face selling pressure.
    • Liquidity Rotation: Capital is rotating into Bitcoin as a non-sovereign alternative to volatile fiat currencies and traditional debt.
TAM 0.10 Ether
    • Tech Correlation: Ether is feeling the pressure of the broader technology sell-off as higher energy costs hit the Nasdaq and semiconductor sectors.
    • Utility Bid: Increased use of Ethereum for decentralized finance is providing a secondary fundamental support despite the macro volatility.
    • ETF Divergence: Ethereum ETF flows remain more mixed compared to Bitcoin as investors seek clearer utility catalysts.
INTEREST RATES
x
SQ 3-Month
    • Flight to Quality: Investors are flooding into short-term markets as a safe-haven for cash while global markets re-price war risk.
    • Inflation Floor: Short-term rates are pricing in a higher-for-longer trajectory due to the persistent shock of surging crude oil.
    • Liquidity Squeeze: Short-term rates are reflecting an intense flight to liquidity as the geopolitical deadlock deepens.
ZT 2-Year T-Note
    • Yield Spike: 2-year Treasury yields are jumping as the energy surge re-ignites fears of a prolonged inflation battle for the Fed.
    • Rate Cut Repricing: The market is rapidly pricing out any chance of near-term rate cuts as the geopolitical crisis intensifies.
    • Inflation Alarm: The 2-year note is the primary vehicle for investors hedging against immediate energy-driven price increases.
ZF 5-Year T-Note
    • Risk Premium Absorption: 5-year yields are absorbing the shock to global commodity markets, reflecting a higher long-term inflation path.
    • Corporate Cost Push: Rising 5-year yields are increasing borrowing costs for industrial firms already hit by higher fuel prices.
    • Economic Shift: The 5-year is tracking the shift from a soft landing to a war-inflation economic scenario.
ZN 10-Year
    • Benchmark Sell-Off: 10-year Treasury yields are surging as investors exit long-term debt in favor of hard assets like energy and the U.S. Dollar.
    • Real Yield Normalization: Inflation-adjusted yields are rising as the market digests the long-term impact of a restricted global energy supply.
    • Cost Reality: The 10-year is reflecting the reality of physical shortages in the fuel market driving global cost expectations higher.
ZB 30-Year
    • Duration Stress: 30-year bonds are facing heavy pressure as long-term inflation expectations are reset by the energy crisis.
    • Inflation Protection Bid: Demand for inflation-indexed bonds is soaring as a hedge against a multi-year war-driven commodity cycle.
    • Sovereign Re-Allocation: Global investors are re-assessing long-duration U.S. debt as a primary diversifier in a high-inflation world.
AGRICULTURAL
x
ZC Corn
    • Ethanol Connection: Corn is tracking the surge in crude oil as ethanol becomes an even more critical component of the fuel supply.
    • Supply Chain Risk: Stalled peace talks are re-igniting fears of grain shipping disruptions in conflict-adjacent regions.
    • Production Costs: Rising fuel and transport costs are increasing the cost of production, providing a fundamental floor for corn.
ZW Wheat
    • War Premium Spike: As a primary crop in conflict-adjacent regions, wheat is reacting sharply to the collapse of peace negotiations.
    • Logistical Blockades: Shipping lane restrictions are increasing the cost and risk of global wheat transport, driving prices higher.
    • Sovereign Stockpiling: Major importers are expected to accelerate wheat purchases to secure supplies amid the worsening geopolitical deadlock.
ZS Soybeans
    • Bio-Fuel Demand: Surging petroleum costs are driving record interest in bio-diesel, providing a massive bid for soybean oil.
    • Oilseed Scarcity: Traders are prioritizing the security of soybean stockpiles as regional blockades complicate global oilseed trade.
    • Farmer Margin Pressure: Rising fertilizer and fuel costs are increasing the minimum profitable price for global soybean farmers.
CT Cotton
    • Cost-Push Inflation: Rising energy and transport costs are increasing the all-in cost for raw cotton delivery, despite discretionary demand fears.
    • Manufacturing Headwinds: High fuel costs are threatening to slow textile manufacturing in major Asian hubs, creating a mixed signal for cotton.
    • Logistics Squeeze: Shipping blockades are adding a significant time and cost premium to the global cotton trade.
KC Coffee
    • Transport Premiums: The surge in crude is adding a hidden premium to coffee as freight costs from major growing regions climb.
    • Resilient Consumption: Global coffee demand remains steady as a daily necessity despite the energy-driven inflationary shock.
    • Inventory Monitoring: Markets are on high alert for any supply disruptions that could worsen the existing global coffee deficit.
CC Cocoa
    • Commodity Supercycle: Cocoa is benefiting from the broader hard-asset rally as investors rotate into commodities to hedge against inflation.
    • Structural Shortage: Ongoing production deficits in West Africa remain the primary fundamental force behind the historic cocoa bull run.
    • Inelastic Demand: Chocolate manufacturers are continuing to compete for limited supplies, keeping upward pressure on wholesale prices.
OJ Orange Juice
    • Supply Tightness: Historic lows in regional orange production are providing a solid floor regardless of the broader energy shock.
    • Logistical Squeeze: Surging fuel costs are increasing transport costs for citrus products, adding to retail price pressure.
    • Diversification Bid: Investors are holding orange juice as a tactical soft commodity play to diversify away from high-volatility energy.
LB Lumber
    • Cost of Construction: Surging energy and metal prices are increasing the all-in production cost for lumber, supporting the price floor.
    • Rate Headwinds: Rising Treasury yields are a negative for lumber, as higher mortgage rates threaten to slow the pace of new housing starts.
    • Industrial Utility: Despite the macro shock, lumber remains a critical industrial material for the resilient domestic infrastructure sector.

If you have questions contact me. 

Peter Knight
Voice & Video Chats.
Message me

 

 

Disclosure

260429 positions, 260430 stops, reversals & objectives

Intraday Quotes 
S&P 500 NASDAQ Dow  Gold Silver 
Copper  Platinum Bitcoin Crude  Gasoline
Swiss Euro  Dollar Yen
How to track trades
 Performance Historical Trade Reports
 
.................................................................

JUN26 MINI SP 500       1844 Trading days from 190102 to 260429

Running .DAT file ESN011.DAT

Last trading day was 260429   Closing price was 7168.0000

Current V value is 126.750000 (507 ticks)  K1 value is 0.41
V*K1 for tomorrow is 51.967500 (208 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 7220.0000  SellStop is 7116.0000

Protective stop price is 8154.0000
Profit objective price is 6842.0000

V is less than high filter value of 1750
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently short 1 contract(s) at 7154.0000
Open trade equity is -700.00

From 190102 total profit is 317575.00
            current drawdown is -6987.50
            maximum drawdown was -31150.00
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 MICRO SP 500       1844 Trading days from 190102 to 260429

Running .DAT file ESM004.DAT

Last trading day was 260429   Closing price was 7168.0000

Current V value is 126.750000 (507 ticks)  K1 value is 0.41
V*K1 for tomorrow is 51.967500 (208 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 7220.0000  SellStop is 7116.0000

Protective stop price is 17154.0000
Profit objective price is 6842.0000

V is less than high filter value of 1750
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently short 1 contract(s) at 7154.0000
Open trade equity is -70.00

From 190102 total profit is 17357.50
            current drawdown is -837.50
            maximum drawdown was -4791.25
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 MINI NASDAQ 100       1844 Trading days from 190102 to 260429

Running .DAT file NQN002.DAT

Last trading day was 260429   Closing price was 27325.2500

Current V value is 1102.500000 (4410 ticks)  K1 value is 0.43
V*K1 for tomorrow is 474.075000 (1896 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 27751.7500  SellStop is 26803.7500

V is less than high filter value of 5300
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently flat

From 190102 total profit is 443925.00
            current drawdown is -20610.00
            maximum drawdown was -41970.00
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 MICRO NASDAQ 100       1844 Trading days from 190102 to 260429

Running .DAT file NQM008.DAT

Last trading day was 260429   Closing price was 27325.2500

Current V value is 1102.500000 (4410 ticks)  K1 value is 0.43
V*K1 for tomorrow is 474.075000 (1896 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 27751.7500  SellStop is 26803.7500

V is less than high filter value of 5300
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently flat

From 190102 total profit is 37687.50
            current drawdown is -2241.00
            maximum drawdown was -4332.00
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 DOW FUTURES       1844 Trading days from 190102 to 260429

Running .DAT file YMN016.DAT

Last trading day was 260429   Closing price was 49012.0000

Current V value is 3215.000000 (3215 ticks)  K1 value is 0.26
V*K1 for tomorrow is 835.900000 (836 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 49900.0000  SellStop is 48228.0000

Protective stop price is 39668.0000
Profit objective price is 50656.0000

V is less than high filter value of 9999
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 46396.0000
Open trade equity is 13080.00

From 190102 total profit is 253700.00
            current drawdown is -4940.00
            maximum drawdown was -18315.00
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 MICRO DOW FUTURES       1844 Trading days from 190102 to 260429

Running .DAT file YMM015.DAT

Last trading day was 260429   Closing price was 49012.0000

Current V value is 3618.000000 (3618 ticks)  K1 value is 0.27
V*K1 for tomorrow is 976.860000 (977 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 50050.0000  SellStop is 48096.0000

Protective stop price is 46418.0000
Profit objective price is 51033.0000

V is less than high filter value of 6440
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 46433.0000
Open trade equity is 1289.50

From 190102 total profit is 18597.00
            current drawdown is -187.00
            maximum drawdown was -2361.50
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 GOLD 100       1843 Trading days from 190102 to 260429

Running .DAT file GC1005.DAT

Last trading day was 260429   Closing price was 4561.5000

Current V value is 148.899902 (14890 ticks)  K1 value is 0.80
V*K1 for tomorrow is 119.119922 (11912 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 4692.3700  SellStop is 4454.1300

V is equal to or greater than high filter value of 8350
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High filter does not permit trading for tomorrow

Currently flat

From 190102 total profit is 297612.00
            current drawdown is -9516.00
            maximum drawdown was -27150.00
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 MINI GOLD 50       1843 Trading days from 190102 to 260429

Running .DAT file GC2014.DAT

Last trading day was 260429   Closing price was 4561.5000

Current V value is 109.330589 (10933 ticks)  K1 value is 0.86
V*K1 for tomorrow is 94.024307 (9402 ticks)

BuyStop and SellStop computation requires tomorrow's Open

V is equal to or greater than high filter value of 8550
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High filter does not permit trading for tomorrow

Currently flat

From 190102 total profit is 156606.50
            current drawdown is 0.00
            maximum drawdown was -14128.00
................................................................
.................................................................

JUL26 MICRO GOLD 10       1843 Trading days from 190102 to 260429

Running .DAT file GC3010.DAT

Last trading day was 260429   Closing price was 4561.5000

Current V value is 245.500000 (24550 ticks)  K1 value is 0.63
V*K1 for tomorrow is 154.665000 (15466 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 4724.0000  SellStop is 4414.6700

V is equal to or greater than high filter value of 8925
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High filter does not permit trading for tomorrow

Currently flat

From 190102 total profit is 21058.60
            current drawdown is -789.70
            maximum drawdown was -2478.50
................................................................
.................................................................

JUL26 5000 COMEX SILVER       1843 Trading days from 190102 to 260429

Running .DAT file SI1005.DAT

Last trading day was 260429   Closing price was 72.0880

Current V value is 3.115005 (3115 ticks)  K1 value is 0.51
V*K1 for tomorrow is 1.588653 (1589 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 73.6770  SellStop is 70.4990

Protective stop price is 89.5650
Profit objective price is 58.1250

V is less than high filter value of 6775
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently short 1 contract(s) at 71.5650
Open trade equity is -2614.99

From 190102 total profit is 805900.03
            current drawdown is -26084.99
            maximum drawdown was -43100.00
................................................................
.................................................................

JUL26 2500 COMEX SILVER       1843 Trading days from 190102 to 260429

Running .DAT file SI2005.DAT

Last trading day was 260429   Closing price was 72.0880

Current V value is 3.115005 (3115 ticks)  K1 value is 0.51
V*K1 for tomorrow is 1.588653 (1589 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 73.6770  SellStop is 70.4990

Protective stop price is 91.5650
Profit objective price is 58.1250

V is less than high filter value of 6775
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently short 1 contract(s) at 71.5650
Open trade equity is -1307.49

From 190102 total profit is 382000.02
            current drawdown is -13217.49
            maximum drawdown was -21625.00
................................................................
.................................................................

MAY26 1000 COMEX SILVER       1843 Trading days from 190102 to 260429

Running .DAT file SI3005.DAT

Last trading day was 260429   Closing price was 72.0880

Current V value is 3.115005 (3115 ticks)  K1 value is 0.51
V*K1 for tomorrow is 1.588653 (1589 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 73.6770  SellStop is 70.4990

Protective stop price is 121.5650
Profit objective price is 58.3650

V is less than high filter value of 6775
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently short 1 contract(s) at 71.5650
Open trade equity is -523.00

From 190102 total profit is 126460.01
            current drawdown is -5497.00
            maximum drawdown was -8740.00
................................................................
.................................................................

JUL26 COPPER 25000       1843 Trading days from 190102 to 260429

Running .DAT file HG1005.DAT

Last trading day was 260429   Closing price was 5.9330

Current V value is 0.285000 (5700 ticks)  K1 value is 0.30
V*K1 for tomorrow is 0.085500 (1710 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 6.0185  SellStop is 5.8475

Protective stop price is 6.0500
Profit objective price is 5.5952

V is equal to or greater than high filter value of 4525
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High filter does not permit trading for tomorrow

Currently short 1 contract(s) at 6.0312
Open trade equity is 2453.75

From 190102 total profit is 144989.99
            current drawdown is -3988.75
            maximum drawdown was -14852.50
................................................................
.................................................................

JUL26 MINI COPPER 12500       1843 Trading days from 190102 to 260429

Running .DAT file HG2001.DAT

Last trading day was 260429   Closing price was 5.9330

Current V value is 0.285000 (5700 ticks)  K1 value is 0.30
V*K1 for tomorrow is 0.085500 (1710 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 6.0185  SellStop is 5.8475

Protective stop price is 6.0500
Profit objective price is 5.5512

V is equal to or greater than high filter value of 4525
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High filter does not permit trading for tomorrow

Currently short 1 contract(s) at 6.0312
Open trade equity is 1226.87

From 190102 total profit is 62733.12
            current drawdown is -3556.87
            maximum drawdown was -7941.25
................................................................
.................................................................

OCT26 PLATINUM 50       1843 Trading days from 190102 to 260429

Running .DAT file PLA008.DAT

Last trading day was 260429   Closing price was 1919.8000

Current V value is 93.400024 (9340 ticks)  K1 value is 0.46
V*K1 for tomorrow is 42.964011 (4296 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 1974.6300  SellStop is 1888.7000

V is equal to or greater than high filter value of 3850
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High filter does not permit trading for tomorrow

Currently flat

From 190102 total profit is 112061.50
            current drawdown is -807.50
            maximum drawdown was -10832.00
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 1000 CRUDE OIL       1843 Trading days from 190102 to 260429

Running .DAT file CL1012.DAT

Last trading day was 260429   Closing price was 106.8800

Current V value is 11.779999 (1178 ticks)  K1 value is 0.50
V*K1 for tomorrow is 5.889999 (589 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 112.7700  SellStop is 100.9900

Protective stop price is 56.8800
Profit objective price is 120.9200

V is less than high filter value of 1500
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 105.8200
Open trade equity is 1060.00

From 190102 total profit is 235060.01
            current drawdown is 0.00
            maximum drawdown was -16990.00
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 500 CRUDE OIL       1843 Trading days from 190102 to 260429

Running .DAT file CL2010.DAT

Last trading day was 260429   Closing price was 106.8800

Current V value is 11.779999 (1178 ticks)  K1 value is 0.50
V*K1 for tomorrow is 5.889999 (589 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 112.7700  SellStop is 100.9900

Protective stop price is 6.8800
Profit objective price is 120.9200

V is less than high filter value of 1500
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 105.8200
Open trade equity is 530.00

From 190102 total profit is 111630.00
            current drawdown is 0.00
            maximum drawdown was -8700.00
................................................................
.................................................................

OCT26 42000 GASLOINE       1843 Trading days from 190102 to 260429

Running .DAT file RBN005.DAT

Last trading day was 260429   Closing price was 2.7773

Current V value is 0.183400 (1834 ticks)  K1 value is 0.50
V*K1 for tomorrow is 0.091700 (917 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 2.8690  SellStop is 2.6856

V is equal to or greater than high filter value of 1700
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High filter does not permit trading for tomorrow

Currently flat

From 190102 total profit is 222859.21
            current drawdown is 0.00
            maximum drawdown was -14938.40
................................................................
.................................................................

MAY26 MICRO BITCOIN       1844 Trading days from 190102 to 260429

Running .DAT file BTC022.DAT

Last trading day was 260429   Closing price was 75775.0000

Current V value is 4265.000000 (4265 ticks)  K1 value is 0.56
V*K1 for tomorrow is 2388.400000 (2388 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 78646.0000  SellStop is 73869.0000

Protective stop price is 67185.0000
Profit objective price is 107681.0000

V is less than high filter value of 7210
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 77681.0000
Open trade equity is -190.60

From 190102 total profit is 24153.20
            current drawdown is -1969.60
            maximum drawdown was -3038.00
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 1250000 YEN       1844 Trading days from 190102 to 260429

Running .DAT file J6N012.DAT

Last trading day was 260429   Closing price was 0.6261

Current V value is 0.007700 (77 ticks)  K1 value is 0.69
V*K1 for tomorrow is 0.005313 (53 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 0.6314  SellStop is 0.6208

Protective stop price is 0.6108
Profit objective price is 0.6545

V is less than high filter value of 9999
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 0.6329
Open trade equity is -850.00

From 190102 total profit is 63018.74
            current drawdown is -2431.25
            maximum drawdown was -9943.74
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 100000 DOLLAR INDEX       1879 Trading days from 190102 to 260429

Running .DAT file DXX016.DAT

Last trading day was 260429   Closing price was 98.8270

Current V value is 0.792000 (7920 ticks)  K1 value is 0.42
V*K1 for tomorrow is 0.332640 (3326 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 99.1596  SellStop is 98.4944

Protective stop price is 97.3020
Profit objective price is 102.4603

V is less than high filter value of 8750
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 98.5603
Open trade equity is 266.70

From 190102 total profit is 29404.79
            current drawdown is -1206.11
            maximum drawdown was -5535.50
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 125000 EURO FX       1844 Trading days from 190102 to 260429

Running .DAT file E6N015.DAT

Last trading day was 260429   Closing price was 1.1695

Current V value is 0.018600 (186 ticks)  K1 value is 0.42
V*K1 for tomorrow is 0.007812 (78 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 1.1774  SellStop is 1.1617

Protective stop price is 1.1556
Profit objective price is 1.1972

V is less than high filter value of 225
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 1.1596
Open trade equity is 1243.74

From 190102 total profit is 71918.74
            current drawdown is -2018.74
            maximum drawdown was -7062.50
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 62500 EUR0 FX MINI       1844 Trading days from 190102 to 260429

Running .DAT file E7M008.DAT

Last trading day was 260429   Closing price was 1.1695

Current V value is 0.018600 (186 ticks)  K1 value is 0.42
V*K1 for tomorrow is 0.007812 (78 ticks)

BuyStop for tomorrow is 1.1774  SellStop is 1.1617

Protective stop price is 1.1554
Profit objective price is 1.1972

V is less than high filter value of 225
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 1.1596
Open trade equity is 621.87

From 190102 total profit is 33284.37
            current drawdown is -1034.37
            maximum drawdown was -3881.25
................................................................
.................................................................

JUN26 125000 SWISS FRANC       1844 Trading days from 190102 to 260429

Running .DAT file S6N003.DAT

Last trading day was 260429   Closing price was 1.2693

Current V value is 0.007333 (73 ticks)  K1 value is 1.25
V*K1 for tomorrow is 0.009167 (92 ticks)

260430 Open 1.2691		
V*K1 = 0.0092		
BuyStop for tomorrow is	1.2783	SellStop is 1.2599

Protective stop price is 0.8918
Profit objective price is 1.3250

V is less than high filter value of 125
V is greater than low filter value of 0

High/Low filters permit trading for tomorrow

Currently long 1 contract(s) at 1.2714
Open trade equity is -262.50

From 190102 total profit is 89887.50
            current drawdown is 0.00
            maximum drawdown was -9587.51
................................................................

If you have questions contact me. 

Peter Knight
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Disclosure

Fundamental Commentary 260428

x
STOCK INDICES
x
ES S&P 500
    • AI Valuation Reset: The index retreated from its recent all-time high as disappointing user and revenue targets from OpenAI re-ignited concerns about the immediate ROI on heavy AI capital expenditure.
    • Big Tech Tension: Investors are shifting to a “show-me” stance ahead of massive earnings reports from Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft, leading to broad-market profit-taking.
    • Energy Sector Support: While tech weighed on the S&P 500, a significant jump in energy stocks limited the downside as crude prices surged back above the $100 level.
NQ NASDAQ 100
    • Semiconductor Sell-Off: Chip giants like Nvidia and Broadcom faced heavy selling pressure as the market re-assessed the sustainability of the current AI spending boom.
    • Infrastructure Sympathy Drop: Shares of key AI infrastructure partners and data center providers slumped following reports of internal performance misses from major AI developers.
    • FOMC Jitters: The index faced additional headwind as traders adjusted positions ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision, fearing a more hawkish tone on inflation.
YM Dow Jones
    • Four-Day Losing Streak: The Dow logged its fourth consecutive daily decline, its largest multi-day drop since late March, as blue-chip industrials struggled for direction.
    • Defensive Rotation: Despite the broader retreat, defensive names and value plays helped the Dow significantly outperform its tech-heavy peers.
    • Consumer Confidence Pulse: A surprise uptick in the Consumer Confidence Index provided some stability for the index’s retail and financial components.
QR Russell 2000
    • Volatility Spike: Small-caps were the hardest hit today, slumping over 1% in their worst daily performance since March as risk-off sentiment intensified.
    • Funding Cost Fears: Rising inflation concerns tied to surging energy prices are weighing on interest-rate-sensitive small businesses that rely on floating-rate debt.
    • Growth Deceleration: The Russell 2000 is reacting sharply to slowing domestic manufacturing and industrial output data, signaling a potential cooling in internal economic momentum.
FX Euro Stoxx 50
    • War Impact Drag: European blue-chips are facing renewed pressure as the prolonged Middle East conflict continues to hit regional growth forecasts.
    • Manufacturing Slowdown: Weak industrial output data from key global trading partners is heightening fears of a manufacturing contraction affecting European exporters.
    • Energy Cost Inflation: As crude prices climb, the Euro Stoxx is sensitive to the rising input costs threatening to erode corporate margins across the continent.
SZ Swiss Index
    • Safe-Haven Stability: Amid broad European selling, the Swiss market is maintaining its defensive status, anchored by high-quality pharmaceutical and staple giants.
    • Currency Correlation: The index is tracking the persistent fundamental bid in the Swiss Franc as investors seek protection over upside in the current geopolitical climate.
    • Exporter Margin Pressure: The ongoing challenge with currency strength remains a secondary headwind for Swiss-based global manufacturing firms.
MX CAC 40
    • Industrial Profit Resilience: French stocks are navigating mixed signals as global industrial profits rise, even as regional manufacturing output slows.
    • Luxury Sector Hesitation: The CAC 40’s premium luxury constituents are seeing a pause in momentum as investors weigh high global inflation against premium consumer demand.
    • Airlines Under Probe: Regulatory investigations into major regional airlines over potential price alignment are creating tactical uncertainty in the transport sector.
AE AEX
    • Semiconductor Support: Upbeat forecasts from major equipment manufacturers are providing localized support for Dutch semiconductor stocks.
    • Logistics Bottlenecks: Persistent closures in key shipping lanes are increasing the logistical complexity and cost for Amsterdam-based global shipping firms.
    • Yield Pressure: Rising yields on long-term sovereign debt are capping gains for the high-dividend-yielding components of the AEX.
NY Nikkei
    • Record High Stall: The Nikkei pulled back from its record highs today as a less-hawkish central bank and surging oil prices point to potential economic overheating.
    • Currency Weakness Tailwinds: Persistent weakness in the Yen continues to boost repatriated earnings for major exporters, though it fuels domestic inflationary fears.
    • Speculator Positioning: Extreme net-long positioning among professional traders is making the Nikkei sensitive to any sudden risk-off reversals in global sentiment.
HS Hang Seng
    • Regional Output Slowdown: Weak industrial output from neighboring markets is signaling a broader cooling in Asian manufacturing demand, weighing on industrial components.
    • Real Estate Fatigue: Persistent concerns over property sector stability continue to prevent a sustained recovery in the Hong Kong benchmark.
    • Incentive Stance: Investors remain cautious as they await more aggressive fiscal stimulus measures from the mainland to offset the global war’s economic impact.
METALS
x
GC Gold 100
    • FOMC Caution: Gold prices slid as traders booked profits and positioned for a potentially hawkish Federal Reserve meeting tomorrow.
    • Yield Pressure: A surprise increase in consumer confidence and rising energy-driven inflation expectations are pushing real yields higher, reducing the appeal of bullion.
    • Safe-Haven Fatigue: Despite stalled peace talks, some of the immediate geopolitical fear premium is leaking out as markets become accustomed to the current stalemate.
SI Silver 5000
    • Deep Correction: Silver recorded a steep fall today, trailing gold’s decline as industrial demand concerns resurface amid slowing global manufacturing data.
    • Tactical Warning: Analysts are flagging potential for a deeper re-pricing after a historic rally that may have reached a temporary tactical top.
    • Dollar Headwind: A steady Dollar Index is making silver more expensive for global industrial buyers, particularly in slowing manufacturing hubs.
HG Copper 25K
    • Output Concerns: Weak industrial output from emerging hubs is creating fears of a temporary cooling in structural copper demand for electrification.
    • Supply Chain Disruption: While demand is cooling, supply remains extremely tight as experts warn of record-high prices for key metals due to war shocks.
    • Warehouse Depletion: Critically low stockpiles in major warehouses continue to provide a firm floor under prices despite the day’s risk-off mood.
PL Platinum 50
    • Sympathy Sell-Off: Platinum fell alongside gold and silver as investors liquidated precious metal positions ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision.
    • Industrial Sensitivity: As a primary industrial metal, platinum is reacting to the same manufacturing slowdown signals seen in copper and silver.
    • Mining Risks: Ongoing production risks in major mining hubs remain the primary fundamental pillar supporting long-term platinum scarcity.
ENERGY
x
CL Crude Oil
    • Hormuz Deadlock: Crude oil prices surged as negotiations reached a deadlock and shipping blockades in the Strait of Hormuz became more restrictive.
    • OPEC Shakeup: Global oil markets are digesting major news from key producers regarding their future membership in supply-control cartels.
    • Physical Shortages: Actual physical shortages in Europe and Asia are beginning to outpace the pricing reflected in the futures market.
NG Natural Gas
    • Energy Sector Lift: Natural gas is tracking the broader surge in energy benchmarks as the global fear premium for fuel delivery expands.
    • Export Potential: Growing integration with global export markets is making domestic gas prices more sensitive to Middle East supply disruptions.
    • Inventory Cushion: Despite the rally, high domestic storage levels compared to historical averages are providing a buffer against a full-scale vertical breakout.
RB Gasoline
    • Pump Price Pressure: National gas prices are on the move as the underlying crude rally forces refiners to pass through higher costs.
    • Shipping Disruption: The continued restriction of oil tankers leaving key export regions is severely constraining the global supply of refined products.
    • Seasonal Demand: Seasonal demand for domestic travel is providing a consistent fundamental bid as the market enters a peak usage window.
HO Heating Oil
    • War-Impact Margins: Heating oil margins remain at multi-year highs as the market prices in significant supply chain stress from conflict regions.
    • Crude Correlation: Prices are tracking the surge in benchmark crude as distillates remain the primary fuel affected by global shipping bottlenecks.
    • Industrial Bid: Continued demand for diesel and industrial heating fuel is competing for limited global supplies, supporting the current price floor.
CURRENCIES
x
A6 100,000 AUD
    • Industrial Slowdown: The Aussie is sensitive to slowing industrial output in major Asian trading partners, signaling a potential dip in raw material export demand.
    • Risk-Off Pressure: As a primary risk-proxy, the AUD is under pressure as global equity markets retreat from record territory.
    • Yield Spread: Domestic rate expectations remain the primary support for the AUD as it navigates a volatile global interest rate outlook.
D6 100,000 CAD
    • Oil Rally Support: The Loonie is benefiting from the surge in crude prices, which is improving Canada’s trade terms as an energy exporter.
    • Supply Uncertainty: As Middle East supplies are blocked, North American energy sources are seeing an increased security premium in global trade.
    • Economic Integration: The CAD is tracking the resilience of U.S. consumer confidence, which recently reached its best level in several months.
S6 125,000 CHF
    • Ceasefire Pessimism: Stalled peace talks are driving a renewed bid into the Swiss Franc as a premier safe-haven from war disruptions.
    • Equity Hedging: The CHF is acting as the primary hedge for investors liquidating European equity positions during broader market retreats.
    • Stability Premium: The Franc remains on a stable footing compared to the high-volatility Euro and Yen.
E6 125,000 EUR
    • Growth Forecasts: Regional growth forecasts are being slashed as war and high inflation hit the continent’s economic outlook.
    • Energy Stalemate: The Euro is vulnerable to the shipping deadlock as higher energy costs threaten to trigger a deeper recession.
    • Fed Positioning: The Euro is bracing for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision, with speculators trimming net-long exposure.
B6 62,500 GBP
    • Forecast Revisions: Economists have slashed UK growth forecasts, citing twin pressures of regional war and domestic inflation.
    • Targeted Protection: Financial leadership has signaled the need for steps to protect the economy from war impacts without aggressive rate hits.
    • Inflation Expectations: Stubbornly high inflation expectations are keeping the Pound under pressure even as retail data shows resilience.
J6 12.5 M JPY
    • Carry Trade Dominance: The Yen remains pinned near historic lows as the carry trade remains the dominant theme ahead of global central bank decisions.
    • Inflationary Fears: Analysts are warning that surging oil and a loose monetary stance could lead to further Yen weakness.
    • Safe-Haven Mismatch: The Yen is continuing to fail as a traditional safe-haven asset, losing out to the Swiss Franc and U.S. Dollar.
DX 100,000 USD
    • Yield Rally: The Dollar Index is trading higher as Treasury yields rally on renewed inflation fears tied to energy costs.
    • Safe-Haven Pivot: The USD is recapturing its war-bid as investors pivot away from tech and metals back into reserve liquidity.
    • Inflation Pressure: High consumer inflation expectations are providing a firm fundamental floor for the greenback.
CRYPTO
x
BT 0.10 Bitcoin
    • Volatility Gauges: Bitcoin volatility indices are edging up as the market reacts to the broader risk-off mood in global equities.
    • Digital Safe-Haven Test: Bitcoin is holding relatively steady compared to technology stocks, testing its role as a digital alternative during tech sell-offs.
    • De-risking: Some institutional holders are trimming crypto exposure ahead of major central bank meetings to secure liquidity.
TAM 0.10 Ether
    • High-Beta Volatility: Ether is tracking the high volatility of the technology and semiconductor sectors.
    • ETF Flow Mix: Ethereum continues to see more mixed institutional interest as investors await clearer utility catalysts.
    • Tech Correlation: Ether remains more tightly correlated with AI-heavy tech stocks than Bitcoin, leading to recent underperformance.
INTEREST RATES
x
SQ 3-Month
    • Short-Term Flight: Capital is flowing into short-term markets as investors seek the security of cash-equivalents during market volatility.
    • Inflation Proxy: Short-term rates are pricing in persistent inflation expectations triggered by high energy costs.
    • Policy Lockdown: Short-term markets are effectively locked as traders await the official Federal Reserve policy statement.
ZT 2-Year T-Note
    • Yield Rally: 2-year Treasury yields rallied as inflation fears resurfaced with the jump in energy prices.
    • Rate-Cut Repricing: The market is aggressively repricing the likelihood of near-term rate cuts as global shipping lanes remain restricted.
    • Confidence Influence: The surprise increase in consumer confidence is being digested as a signal that the economy may remain too strong for aggressive easing.
ZF 5-Year T-Note
    • Risk Premium: 5-year yields are absorbing the shock to global commodity markets, reflecting a higher long-term inflation trajectory.
    • Inversion Monitoring: The 5-year remains a key point of focus for investors monitoring potential yield curve shifts.
    • Borrowing Floor: Rising 5-year yields are increasing the cost of capital for industrial and tech firms reporting earnings.
ZN 10-Year
    • Benchmark Shift: 10-year Treasury yields jumped today, fueled by the surge in crude oil and resulting inflationary alarms.
    • Safe-Harbor Outflow: Investors are exiting some long-term bond positions in favor of cash and energy assets, driving yields higher.
    • Reality Tracking: The 10-year is reflecting the reality of physical shortages in the fuel market driving global cost expectations.
ZB 30-Year
    • Duration Stress: 30-year bonds are facing pressure as forecasts for rising commodity prices threaten long-term real returns.
    • Inflation Protection: Some demand remains for inflation-protected bonds as a hedge against a potential multi-year war-driven inflation cycle.
    • Sovereign Shifts: Global investors are re-assessing long-term debt as a safety play despite immediate interest rate volatility.
AGRICULTURAL
x
ZC Corn
    • Energy Correlation: Corn is tracking the surge in crude oil due to the critical role of ethanol in the global fuel supply chain.
    • Output Slowdown: Weak industrial output from major trading hubs is raising concerns about a cooling in global demand for livestock feed.
    • Inventory Security: Traders are prioritizing the security of domestic corn stockpiles as regional blockades complicate global grain shipments.
ZW Wheat
    • Weather Decay: Wheat prices are leading the sector higher as weather-driven deterioration of major winter crops adds to supply fears.
    • Shipping Premium: Stalled peace talks and shipping blockades are increasing the risk of higher transport costs for global wheat exports.
    • Dollar Resistance: Sustained strength in the Dollar Index is making exports more expensive compared to international competitors.
ZS Soybeans
    • Oilseed Sensitivity: Soybeans are tracking record-high fuel margins as demand for bio-diesel remains robust amid surging oil prices.
    • Manufacturing Drag: Slower manufacturing output from major importers is providing a fundamental cap on soybean meal demand.
    • Planting Progress: Investors are closely monitoring spring planting progress, looking for a supply cushion to offset geopolitical risk.
CT Cotton
    • Discretionary Demand: Slower industrial output data is flagging potential weakness in the global textile supply chain.
    • Shipping Costs: Rising fuel margins and regional blockades are directly increasing the transport cost for raw cotton.
    • Sentiment Pulse: While domestic sentiment ticked up, the global war-recession fear remains a significant long-term headwind.
KC Coffee
    • Transport Premiums: Surging crude oil is adding a hidden premium to retail coffee as shipping costs from South America and Asia climb.
    • Resilient Demand: Despite global volatility, demand for high-end beans remains steady as a luxury staple in Western markets.
    • Supply Deficit: Markets remain sensitive to any late-season crop disruptions in major growing regions that could worsen global deficits.
CC Cocoa
    • Commodity Rally: Cocoa continues to benefit from broader forecasts of soaring global commodity, metal, and energy costs.
    • Structural Deficits: Ongoing supply issues in primary growing regions remain the dominant driver of the multi-year bull run.
    • Inventory Inelasticity: With stockpiles at decade-lows, the cocoa market is largely immune to the short-term tech sell-off seen elsewhere.
OJ Orange Juice
    • Supply Tightness: Regional production reports remain at historic lows, keeping prices in a tight, bullish technical corridor.
    • Logistical Squeeze: Rising transportation costs and fuel surcharges are pushing the retail price of orange juice to new highs.
    • Tactical Diversification: Investors are holding orange juice as a tactical soft commodity play to diversify away from high-volatility energy.
LB Lumber
    • Housing Proxy: Lumber prices are tracking resilient consumer confidence data, signaling continued demand for construction despite high rates.
    • Cost-Push Inflation: Surging energy and metal prices are increasing the all-in cost of construction materials.
    • Rate Sensitivity: The rally in benchmark yields is a headwind for lumber, as higher mortgage rates threaten to slow housing starts.

If you have questions contact me. 

Peter Knight
Voice & Video Chats.
Message me

 

 

Disclosure