Trading the Gold EMA 4-21 versus Buy & Hold

Dow EMA 7-69 versus Buy & Hold | Jan 2017 through Sep 2026.

Trading Rules
EMA 7 Red above EMA 69 Green= Long,
EMA 7 Red below EMA 69 Green= Short
Close-to-close trail stop = 100 points
If stopped out, reestablish the position on the close, using a 100-point stop

How the Dow EMA 7-69 performed during the sell-offs of 2020 & 2022.

For the comparison above, we used a close-to-close constant trailing stop of 100 points, no dynamic volatility stops or option collars—just a straightforward EMA 7-69 with a 100-point trailing stop from close to close. It doesn’t get much simpler than this. if you’d like to explore additional risk control strategies like dynamic volatility stops and/or option collars contact me.

Monthly and annual performance trading the Mini Dow EMA 7-69 net of bid/ask and all fees, using a close-to-close trailing stop of 100 points,

Disclosure

From current levels, what the percent declines during the last 5 bear markets would be worth,

1) The Global Financial Crisis (2007–2009) — 53.78% EMA 7-69 chart
Cause, 17 straight 25-basis-point rate hikes from 1.00% to 5.25% resulting in bank and corporate failures, Value of the percentage move lower from current levels, Dow Mini = $138,911, Micro = $13,891

2) The Dot-Com Bubble Bust (2000–2002) — 38.85% EMA 7-69 chart
Cause 6 consecutive rate hikes from 4.75% to 6.50% resulting in overvalued, over leveraged internet and technology companies becoming insolvent. Value from current levels, Dow Mini = $94,787, Micro = $9,479.

3) The COVID-19 Crash (2020) — 37.09% EMA 7-69 chart
Number of Hikes:0 rate hikes (9 hikes in the prior normalization cycle)
Cause, COVID-19, and a combination of bad economic fundamentals with COVID-19 used to cover them up and justify the creation of over 5.95 trillion dollars with keypunch entries yet 3.25 trillion went to buy US treasuries with yields the free market wouldn’t touch and 1.33 trillion to buy mortgage debt.

By absorbing3.32 trillion in Treasury debt and $1.33 trillion in mortgage debt at yield levels completely unpalatable to the free market, the Federal Reserve artificially suppressed borrowing costs. This massive monetary distortion backstopped the housing market and ignited a historic 37.0% surge in national property values between March 2020 and April 2022, completely decoupling asset values from real-world economic fundamentals, this creation of money destroyed the creditability of the Federal Government, the Federal Reserve and US debt rating. Value from current levels Dow Mini = $97,757, Micro = $9,776.

4) 1987 Crash — 36.70% EMA 7-69 chart
Cause, rate hikes from 5.50% to 7.25%, resulting in bank and corporate failures , Initiation of computerized trading resulting in excessive automated liquidations and net new short positions. Value of the percentage move from current levels Dow Mini = $94,787, Micro = $9,479

5) Volcker Recession (1981–1982) — 24.11% EMA 7-69 chart
Cause, rate hikes, July 1980 – July 1981 from 7.65% to 22.36% resulting in the collapse and permanent closure of Savings and loans, insolvency and closure of the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation (FSLIC), widespread Insolvencies, desperate deregulation, death of heavy industry, massive corporate bankruptcies leading to the birth of corporate restructuring and the “junk bond” era essentially what they currently call “private debt” shares the same DNA as what used to be called a “Junk Bond” Value from current levels, Dow Mini = $62,270, Micro = $6,227.

1) How to verify the Dow EMA 7-69 2017 through 2026 performance

This Dow 7-69 spreadsheet provides daily historical data from January 3, 2017, through September 30, 2026 (2,448 trading days). It includes all daily EMA calculations, individual trades, and complete daily, monthly, and annual performance data, including the daily distance from the highest high, allowing you to accurately qualify drawdowns and recovery periods. This sheet is interactive, enabling you to experiment with both constant and dynamic volatility trailing stops. If you need assistance, please contact me and I’ll walk you through it.

Any EMA market or allocation of EMA markets can be traded automatically, using your designated level of leverage and your defined overall account risk.. All Auto-Trade programs utilize our high-performance infrastructure on Chart VPS (Gamma Series) coupled with CQG Integrated Client. Through our direct network, all strategies connect seamlessly to the majority of the exchange members listed on this page. Regardless of trading performance, our group sets everything up, monitors trades and balances and covers 100% of your monthly infrastructure costs, including all Chart VPS Alpha Mark 2 hosting fees and CQG Integrated Client costs, including all automated trade execution add-ons.

3) How we get paid
We base compensation on 5% to 12.5% of net new high profits quarterly, with a zero management fee. To ensure regulatory compliance, all customer funds must be held in a segregated account in their name through a CME member firm.. Furthermore, the client’s member firm must demonstrate that the client meets all financial suitability requirements and possesses the ability to take on the inherent risks of trading. The firm must also verify that the specific auto-trade architecture is fully compliant with all applicable regulations within your regulatory jurisdiction. (We have a dedicated team that will work closely with your compliance department to ensure all requirements are met.)

4) Frequently asked questions
4.01) Global Clearing & Exchange Members
4.02) How balances are guaranteed + or – trading activity (zero defaults since 1848)
4.03) Our fee structure: 5.00% to 12.50% of net new high profits quarterly
4.04) How Treasuries can be used to satisfy margin requirements see (today’s rates)
4.05) How to define overall account risk before the first trade takes place
4.06) How to open an account
4.07) Account liquidity in portion or all; 2 to 48 hours in any major currency
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