Who’s called rates better the Market or the Fed?

Sure the Fed has been wrong about the rate they set but they been more accurate than 17 trillion in the face value of open positions.

Below are all the Fed press conferences versus the Market’s expectation since the 18th of September 2013, I’ll keep this updated after every Fed press conference posted on their site.

2018 Fed or Mkt? Rate on Fed meeting date Fed est. + or – by Dec 2020 Market est. by Dec 2020
18-19 Dec 2.27% 0.73% -0.16%
25-26 Sep 1.95% 1.45% 0.77%
12-12 Jun 1.82% 1.82% 0.74%
20-21 Mar 1.51% 1.89% 0.71%
2017 Fed or Mkt Rate on Fed meeting date Fed est. + or – by Dec 2018 Market est. by Dec 2018 Actual hike Dec 2018
12-13 Dec Fed 1.30% 0.80% 0.49% 0.97%
19-20 Sep Fed 1.15% 0.95% 0.45% 1.12%
13-14 Jun Fed 1.04% 1.06% 0.46% 1.23%
14-15 Mar Mkt 0.79% 1.48% 1.07% 1.31%
2016 Fed or Mkt Rate on Fed meeting date Fed est. + or – by Dec 2018 Market est. by Dec 2018 Actual hike Dec 2018
13-14 Dec Fed 0.54% 1.70% 1.11% 1.73%
20-21 Sep Fed 0.40% 1.40% 0.38% 1.87%
14-15 Jun Fed 0.38% 2.12% 0.51% 1.89%
15-16 Mar Fed 0.36% 2.64% 0.94% 1.91%
2015 Fed or Mkt Rate on Fed meeting date Fed est. hike by Dec 2017 Market’s est. hike by Dec 17 Actual hike by Dec 2017
15-16 Dec Mkt 0.24% 3.01% 1.10% 1.06%
16-17 Sep Mkt 0.14% 3.36% 1.33% 1.16%
16-17 Jun Mkt 0.13% 2.97% 1.81% 1.17%
17-18 Mar Mkt 0.11% 2.99% 1.93% 1.19%
2014 Fed or Mkt? Rate on Fed meeting date Fed est. hike by Dec 2016 Market hike by Dec 16 Actual rise Dec 2016
16-17 Dec Mkt 0.12% 2.38% 1.40% 0.29%
16-17 Sep Mkt 0.09% 2.81% 1.73% 0.32%
17-18 Jun 0.10% No Guidance 1.73% 0.31%
18-19 Mar 0.08% No Guidance 1.75% 0.33%
2013 Fed or Mkt Rate on Fed meeting date Fed est. + or – by Dec 2015 Market hike by Dec 16 Actual hike Dec 2015
17-18 Dec Fed 0.09% 0.91% 0.74% 0.03%
17-18 Sep Fed 0.08% 0.92% 1.35% 0.04%

How we’re trading these moves

Performance for our Long/Short rate performance 2015 through 2018

Market’s rate expectation through 2027

If you have any questions send a message or contact me

Regards,
Peter Knight Advisor

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