Who’s called rates better the Market or the Fed?

Sure the Fed has been wrong about the rate they set but they been more accurate than 17 trillion in the face value of open positions.

Below are all the Fed press conferences versus the Market’s expectation since the 18th of September 2013.

2018	Fed or Mkt?	Rate on Fed meeting date	Fed est. + or – by Dec 2020	Market est. by Dec 2020
18-19 Dec		2.27%	0.73%	-0.16%
25-26 Sep		1.95%	1.45%	0.77%
12-12 Jun		1.82%	1.82%	0.74%
20-21 Mar		1.51%	1.89%	0.71%
2017	Fed or Mkt	Rate on Fed meeting date	Fed est. + or – by Dec 2018	Market est. by Dec 2018	Actual hike Dec 2018
12-13 Dec	Fed	1.30%	0.80%	0.49%	0.97%
19-20 Sep	Fed	1.15%	0.95%	0.45%	1.12%
13-14 Jun	Fed	1.04%	1.06%	0.46%	1.23%
14-15 Mar	Mkt	0.79%	1.48%	1.07%	1.31%
2016	Fed or Mkt	Rate on Fed meeting date	Fed est. + or – by Dec 2018	Market est. by Dec 2018	Actual hike Dec 2018
13-14 Dec	Fed	0.54%	1.70%	1.11%	1.73%
20-21 Sep	Fed	0.40%	1.40%	0.38%	1.87%
14-15 Jun	Fed	0.38%	2.12%	0.51%	1.89%
15-16 Mar	Fed	0.36%	2.64%	0.94%	1.91%
2015	Fed or Mkt	Rate on Fed meeting date	Fed est. hike by Dec 2017	Market’s est. hike by Dec 17	Actual hike by Dec 2017
15-16 Dec	Mkt	0.24%	3.01%	1.10%	1.06%
16-17 Sep	Mkt	0.14%	3.36%	1.33%	1.16%
16-17 Jun	Mkt	0.13%	2.97%	1.81%	1.17%
17-18 Mar	Mkt	0.11%	2.99%	1.93%	1.19%
2014	Fed or Mkt?	Rate on Fed meeting date	Fed est. hike by Dec 2016	Market hike by Dec 16	Actual rise Dec 2016
16-17 Dec	Mkt	0.12%	2.38%	1.40%	0.29%
16-17 Sep	Mkt	0.09%	2.81%	1.73%	0.32%
17-18 Jun		0.10%	No Guidance	1.73%	0.31%
18-19 Mar		0.08%	No Guidance	1.75%	0.33%
2013	Fed or Mkt	Rate on Fed meeting date	Fed est. + or – by Dec 2015	Market hike by Dec 16	Actual hike Dec 2015
17-18 Dec	Fed	0.09%	0.91%	0.74%	0.03%
17-18 Sep	Fed	0.08%	0.92%	1.35%	0.04%

How we’re trading these moves

Performance for our Long/Short rate performance 2015 through 2018

Market’s rate expectation through 2027

If you have any questions send a message or contact me

Regards,
Peter Knight Advisor

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