| U.S. debt is now ranked below Taiwan, Finland and Hong Kong, further debt downgrades are expected |
| Federal debt 2008 9.2 trillion, 2023 32.418 trillion up +23.215 trillion or +253.26% |
| 23.215 trillion is 5 times the fiscal cost WW II and 23 times the cost of FDR’s new deal during the Great Depression |
| In the last 6 months U.S. Federal debt has increased by more than twice Russia’s total debt |
| 1981 Annual Revenue as a percentage total Federal Debt 60.24%, average Treasury rate 14.31%, average inflation rate 10.36% |
| 2023 Annual Revenue as a percentage total Federal Debt 12.94%, average Treasury rate 4.67%, average inflation rate 6.30% |
| Federal debt service cost: 2009 353 billion, 2015 434 billion, 2021 606 billion, 2022 852 Billion |
| This year the U.S. will pay 1.104 trillion in debt service cost, 288 billion more than their 2023 defense budget, |
| As existing debt matures and is refinanced at a higher rates U.S. debt service cost is projected to increase from the current average of 3.28% consuming 25.34% of total annual Federal Revenue to of 4.68% consuming 36.23% of total annual Federal revenue. |
| 1970-2007 Average Treasury Rate 8.70%, inflation 4.71%, rate paid above inflation 3.99%, rating AAA stable |
| 2023 Treasury rate 4.69%, 12 month average inflation rate 6.30% rate paid below inflation 1.61%, rating AA+ Negative |
| A debt service cost of 4.00% consumes 30.90% of total revenue, 5.00% 38.63%, 7.50% 57.94%, 10.00% 77.25%, 12.50% 96.56% |
| Average Treasury rates from 1978 through 1988 were 12.18%, Inflation 6.55%, debt rating AAA, consuming 26.01% of total revenue |
| Today at the 1978-1988 average rate of 12.18% debt service cost would consume 94.09% of total Federal Revenue |
| Ability to control true inflation, in 2023, the U.S. has four times the amount of money in circulation chasing the same amount of goods and services as 2020, 13 times more than 2008, its delusional to think inflation can be controlled with a Treasury 1.61% below the 12 month average of reported inflation of 6.30% |
| Demand for downgraded U.S. Treasuries has declined, the primary reasons, Treasuries have not paid a competitive rate of return for decades, they’ve, lost their AAA rating and the market does not believe the reported BLS.GOV inflation rate is remotely credible, enter anything into BLS.GOV inflation calculator odds are their projected price has nothing to do with reality housing for example is 44% of the CPI, in June 2009 a median home cost $220,900 according to the BLS.GOV in June 2023 a median home should cost $312,474 up 41.45% actual cost in June 2023 $436,800, up 97.74% and this is after the 8.60% decline in home prices so far in 2023. |
| In March of 2020 the Federal Reserve ended the 10% bank reserve requirement this enabled banks to create nearly any amount money, to do nearly anything with spiking money supply (M1) from 3.98 trillion to 20.64 trillion +418.41%, |
| Commercial Mortgages have increased from 2.77 trillion in 2008 to 3.58 trillion in 2023 +29.24% 897 billion of this 3.58 trillion or 23.35% is coming due within the next 12 months |
| Commercial mortgage rates for the refi on these properties have increased from 3.58% to 6.74% |
| The average vacancy rate, from 7.01% in 2019 to 18.60%, this number will increase as leases expire and not renewed, |
| In 2022 commercial real estate had it’s biggest decline since 2008 |
| We’re already seeing U.S. commercial walkaways in excess of 55 billion |
| Total Residential Mortgages from 14.75 trillion in 2008 to 19.452 trillion in 2023, 10.21% are ARMs |
| Median Home prices are down from $479,500 to $436,800 -8.90% in last 5 months |
| Residential mortgage rates have increased from 2.67% to 6.81% |
| Real median household income is 2.77% lower than 2020, |
| Median post tax U.S. family monthly income is $5,226, median monthly home ownership cost $2,962.94, median cost of 1 automobile $894, median cost for family health insurance $1,280 leaving $89 per month for all other family expenditures, this math makes it clear it’s impossible for a median U.S. family to currently buy a median U.S. home. |
| Mortgage Delinquency Rate is now at 1.73%, (2010 high 11.28%) our numbers put it at 8.75% by 2028 |
| Since 2021 U.S. credit card debt has increased by 75.56% this will continue to move higher. |
| Average credit card rates have increased from 15.09% in 2020 to 20.68% in 2023 |
| Delinquency rate for credit cards has increased from 1.54% in 2021 to 2.43% in 2023, our numbers put it at 4.90% by 2028. |
| Banks are far more leveraged in 2023 with over 18 trillion dollars in the system than the 465 banks that failed from 2008-2012 when total money in the system was a mere 1.373 trillion. Now as in 2007 in 2023 banks are starting to implode, Silicon Vally 10 March 2023, followed by Signature 12 March 2023, then First Republic, the media says isolated the audits tell a different story. |
| The U.S Central Bank’s resources are exhausted, in 2023 the Fed is still holding 8+ trillion in debt they bought with created money during the last 2 crises that no one else would and they currently can’t sell. |
| The Federal Government has borrowed nearly every dollar U.S. citizens have paid into every Federal Agency and Trust, resulting in the insolvency of their Social Security System before 2031 |
| Non U.S. investors from 2008-2021 who bought 5.311 trillion of U.S. Treasuries using a portion of the 9.083 trillion in trade deficits during the same period in 2022 became net sellers of 451 billion of U.S. Treasury debt. |