1 through 8 will walk you through one way to capture the move higher in rates, 9-13 update the 1998-2015 performance for the InterBank trading program.
1) Current rate ZQZ15 0.34% contract value $1,417 contact price 99.66
2) Low end of Fed expectations Dec 2015 1.1250%, contract value $4,687, price 98.8750
3) High end of Fed expectations Dec 2015 1.3750%, contract value $5,729, price 98.6250
4) Click here for quotes, then here to open the Dec 2015 risk reward spreadsheet, enter any price into cell B-2, the current rate will be converted and shown in cell C-2, net profit or loss shows in cell E-2, net liquidation value cell G-2
5) Click here to enlarge the rate, price valuation chart below
Confirmation
6) Click on Yellen below for the press conference and corresponding report.
7) Click here for confirmation on the Federal reserve site.
8) Click here for the latest interest rate and Fed news.
Currency
15) Click here to enlarge the price valuation chart below.
16) Click here for a current chart.
Interest Rates
While we’re waiting for the major market move higher to engage we’re trading the Fed’s defined range.
16) Click here to enlarge the rate, contract price valuation chart below.
17) Click here for current Bloomberg cash quotes charts
18) Each 0.01 change in rate = $41.67 change in contract value
19) Click here for a cost average risk/reward spreadsheet
20) Click here for the full report on trading the Fed’s defined range.
Capturing the long term move higher
The Fed has defined where they see rates and when in 3 out of the last 4 meetings.
The current Fed funds rate is 0.1000% contact value = $416.
The Fed’s target for this rate by the end of 2017 is 3.75%, contract value $15,624.
21) Click here for Fed chair Yellen’s rate expectations (2 minute video)
22) FOMC meeting schedule, statements and videos
23) The last tightening cycle 2004-2006 from 1.25% to 5.25%
24) FOMC interest rate hike countdown
25) Bloomberg Bund quotes
26) Bund quotes and charts
27) Bloomberg U.S. Treasury quotes
28) U.S. Interest rate futures quotes and charts
29) Click here for the complete report “Where, when and what this move is worth”
1990-2014
30) Click here to enlarge the rate, price valuation chart below, each 0.01 = $41.67.
31) Click here for a current 1954-2015 chart and historical data on the Fed’s site.
32) Click here for the complete report.
Call for an online review I’ll answer your questions enabling you to track traces or experiment with your own criteria.
Reports
33) Where, when and what the move higher is worth
34) Where the Fed sees rates and when (2 minutes)
35) How to calculate market versus Fed expectations
36) Trading the Fed’s Defined Range Simplified
37) Trading rates higher using cost averaging
Fed Funds
38) What the Fed funds rate is and how it’s set
39) Contract specifications
40) Fed funds quotes all deliveries
41) Generic Fed funds 50k no hedged
42) 2015-cost-average-risk-reward-16
43) July 2015 25k no hedge
44) July 2015 99.83 25K cost average hedge
45) July 2015 99.82 25K 87.50 hedge
46) July 2015 10K 99.81/99.75 hedge
47) Sep 2015 25k cost average hedge
48) Oct 2015 25K cost average hedge
49) October 2015 cost average with instructions
50) Dec 2015 25K cost average hedge
3 Month
51) What the 3 month rate is and its history
52) What the 3 month rate is and its history
53) Contract specifications
54) 3 Month hedged cost average
55) 3 Month Rate September 2015 hedge
56) 3 Month Rate December 2015 hedge
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Click here for contact details
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RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT
PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. EXAMPLES OF HISTORIC PRICE MOVES OR EXTREME MARKET CONDITIONS ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY THAT SUCH MOVES OR CONDITIONS ARE COMMON OCCURRENCES OR ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT.
IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADE PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF THE HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.
BID/ASK SPREADS, BROKERAGE COMMISSION, CLEARING, EXCHANGE AND REGULATORY FEES WILL HAVE AN ADVERSE IMPACT ON THE NET OVERALL PERFORMANCE OF YOUR ACCOUNT. PRIOR TO MAKING A DECISION TO PARTICIPATE IN ANY INVESTMENT MAKE SURE YOU FULLY UNDERSTAND THE FEES ASSOCIATED WITH TRADING.
THE INFORMATION PROVIDED IN THIS REPORT CONTAINS RESEARCH, MARKET COMMENTARY AND TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS. YOU MAY BE SOLICITED FOR AN ACCOUNT BY ONE OF OUR REPRESENTATIVES OR EMPLOYEES. IT SHOULD BE KNOWN THAT THE REPRESENTATIVES OF OUR FIRM MAY TRADE FUTURES AND OPTIONS FOR THEIR OWN ACCOUNTS OR THOSE OF OTHERS. DUE TO VARIOUS FACTORS (SUCH AS MARGIN REQUIREMENTS, RISK FACTORS, TRADING OBJECTIVES, TRADING INSTRUCTIONS, TRADING STRATEGIES, AND OTHER FACTORS) SUCH TRADING MAY RESULT IN THE LIQUIDATION OR INITIATION OF FUTURES OR OPTIONS POSITIONS THAT DIFFER FROM THE OPINIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOUND IN THIS REPORT.
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES CONTRACTS OR COMMODITY OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL, AND THEREFORE INVESTORS SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS INVOLVED IN TAKING LEVERAGED POSITIONS AND MUST ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH SUCH INVESTMENTS AND FOR THEIR RESULTS.
YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES
