Unable, Tradeview notified me the funds had been wired back in May 2023

Links to monitor this position
Barchart
Peter-Knight-Advisor@outlook.com
CVOL230701

This strategy does not trade in and out of the market, it maintains positions with risk defined to the penny until the profit objectives are achieved or the contacts expire  in 337 days (28 May 2024).

The objective of this trade is to capture the potential range in gold over the next 337 days, below is the risk reward for the exact trade I’d like to implement for your account and its potential impact on your balance.  

Balance EET-90064 $8,715.60
Maximum trade duration
337 days
Potential impact on account EET-90064
Equity
If gold trades at $2,255 (+10.26%) once in the next 337 days +$23,920.00
$32,635.60
If gold trades at $1,655 (-19.32%) once in the next 337 days +$37,920.00
$46,635.60
If Gold trades at both at $1,655 and $2,255 in the next 337 days +$61,840.00
$70,555.60
Worst case liquidating value 28 May 2024 -$7,280.00
$1,435.60
Options educational videos
Market Comex Gold 
Gold Chart
Gold Option Quotes

Where the CME CVOL measurement prices the high and low for gold during the next 12 months.

High $2,255 Max 12 month range,  Jan 79 – Jan 80 270.21%
Percent change higher +10.26% Min  12 month range, Sep 94 – Sep 95 6.74%
Low $1,650 Average 12 month range, 1980-2023 29.36%
Percent change lower -19.32% Highest High, August 2020 $2,070.48
Range $605.00 Lowest Low, July 1999 $252.48
Percent range 29.95% Average price 1980 – 2023 $752.70

CVOL measurement

Following the Fed’s June meeting, the CME Group FedWatch tool tells us the probability of further interest rate hikes remains while the turmoil surrounding the banking sector has not disappeared, traders and investors have been torn, between higher rates that would pressure gold lower or parking funds in the oldest monetary safe haven gold pressuring the price higher.

    •  March 10: US regulators take over SVB
    • March 15: Credit Suisse borrows over $53B from the Swiss National Bank
    • March 17: SVB files for Ch 11 bankruptcy
    • March 18: UBS agrees to purchase Credit Suisse
    • May 3: FOMC meeting
    • May 30: Rule Committee brings debt ceiling legislation to the floor

 

Using the CME Group CVOL measurement, in the chart above the convexity in gold options is at the upper end of the range.  Convexity is a measure of the ratio of the volatility level of the out-of-the-money strikes to that of the at-the-money, meaning how expensive are the “extreme move” options. 

Below positions for this trade and potential outcomes between now and 28 Mar 2024.

Action # Strike Type Price Paid/Collected Purpose
Buy 5 2355 Calls 41 -$20,500 To hedge upside risk on the 2255 write
Write 10 2255 Calls 56.1 $56,100 Write, to generate time premium 
Buy 5 2155 Calls 78.1 -$39,050 To capture the move from 2155 to 2255 
Market 2020 Option Expiration 28 May (337 days)
Buy 5 1750 Puts 19.4 -$9,700 To capture the move from 1750 to 1650 
Write 10 1650 Puts 10.1 $10,100 Write, to generate time premium 
Buy 5 1550 Puts 5.1 -$2,550 To hedge downside on the 1650 write
Potential outcomes of this trade
Max risk net of all bid/ask spreads & fees -$7,280 Gold stays flat for 337 days
Gold hits $2,255 once in 337 days  $23,920 +10.26% move to the upside
Gold hits $1,650 once in 337 days  $37,920 -19.32% move to the downside
Gold hits $2,255 & $1650 once in 341 days $61,840 Does not matter which occurs first
We use spread price orders on entry and

Educational Resources & Links

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Contact or message me  with any questions and  I’ll provide answers and supporting links for additional information and/or verification.

Regards,
Peter
Direct +340-244-4310

Skype: Peter Knight Advisor  voice or video chat
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Chicago +312-436-2891
London  +44-20-8133-8076
       

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